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Card Counting

 HISTORY

In 1962 Edward O. Thorpe's book "Beat the Dealer" appeared. Thorpe, through the use of computer trials, proved that certain cards were favorable to the player, and other cards favorable to the dealer. He proved that "depending" on what cards had been played, one could determine what cards were left. Therefore if more cards were left that favored the player, the player had an advantage and could now raise the bet according to this advantage.


INTRODUCTION

Card counting while at a Blackjack table is the only way you can get a long term, statistical advantage over the casino. Card counting works on the concept that some cards are good for the player (high-value cards), while others are bad (low-value cards). Why are the low-value cards good for the dealer? Because the dealer has to follow rigid rules regarding hitting. He must hit if she has less than 17. Taking note of the cards that have been played can determine whether the remaining cards are beneficial to the player, and altering betting and playing strategy accordingly. This may sound like a complex process, but it is in fact relatively simple. You dont need a photographic memory, only to be able to add and subtract by units of 1.

How large is your advantage when counting cards? On some hands it can be as high as three or four percent, but overall it is around one percent, depending upon the specific rules of the game. Counting does not give us an automatic winning edge on every hand. You will win, on average, about 44% of all hands played in the long-run. The long run is defined as beginning after about 400 or 500 hours of play. This will give us some 50,000 hands, a number large enough that it can have some statistical meaning.


IS IT ILLEGAL?

No. as long as you are using only your brain to count cards as opposed to a computerized device) then it is legal. Then how the casino have the authority to kick you out? In Nevada, it is because the casino in on private property and they have the right to ask anyone to leave for any reason. If you count cards and the casino kicks you out and then you return, they can arrest you for tresspassing. Although some people think this is discrimination, it doesn't meet the legal definition of discrimination because card counters are not members of a classification that is covered by discrimination laws, as defined by the Supreme Court. In Atlantic City the laws state that card counting is allowed. But in response to that rule, the casinos have made the game tougher to beat. They do this several ways: using 8 deck shoes, having lower deck penetration, prohibiting mid-shoe entry (and therefore cutting down on the number of players who sit down only when the count is good).


CAN THEY "BACKROOM" YOU?

"Backrooming" is a term used to describe the process in which the casino takes you into their backroom in order to ask for your ID, take your picture, and lecture you (in the OLD days they might even rough you up). Under the laws of most states, it is illegal for a business establishment to detain a person, unless the customer has committed a crime and the business is holding the person while awaiting the arrival of police. So they can detain you if you are cheating (by using a mini computer, etc) but not for card counting.


HOW TO COUNT

    STEP ONE: Basic Strategy

      First you must learn Basic Strategy. Because of computers, basic strategy has been proven to be mathmatically valid so there is nothing to "learn", only to memorize. To become a successfull card counter, basic Strategy (BS) must become second nature - and if you play enough hands it will.

    STEP TWO: Learn the Running Count

      Using "Hi/Lo" as an example system, the 2-6 cards are valued at +1, and the 10-value cards and Aces are counted as -1. Note that there are the same amount in each group: 2,3,4,5,6 and 10,J,Q,K,A. The 7,8,9 are neutral in this count. To learn how to count, get a deck of cards and flip them over one at a time and keep the "running count". If they come out 8,K,3,3,6,2,7,A we would count 0,-1, 0, +1, +2, +3, +3, +2. After you are done with the deck, the running count should be at 0. If it isn't then you are making mistakes. Keep practicing until you do come out even at the end and then you can work on doing it faster. You need to be able to do in within 30 seconds at most.

      Next you can try flipping over 2 cards at a time and keeping an accurate count. It’s also helpful to learn how to ignore cards that cancel each other out. For example, if you see a King and a two th en you know they cancel each ohter out so instead of adding both numbers into the count (which means doing 2 additional calculations) you ignore them and you dn't have to do any more math.

    STEP THREE: Converting the Running Count to the True Count

      This "running" count must be converted to a "true" count in order to know what your edge is and to bet accordingly. To do this we divide the running count by the amount of decks not seen. For example, in a 6-deck game, after 1 deck has been dealt and the running count is +10, we take the number of decks undealt (5) and divide that into +10, which gives you +2. If you have trouble keeping the count straight in your head, you can use your chips as a reminder. If the count is 4 then have a stack of 4 chips.

    STEP FOUR: The Casino Environment

      Casinos offer much in the way of distraction, so we must account for that, too. Between waitresses talking to you, slot machines going off, and players talking, you will need to be able to ignore all these distractions but also have to be able to talk to other players or the dealer. If you don't then it will be obvious that you are counting. Try counting down a deck of cards while having the TV or music on loud. This will simulate the casino atmosphere which has a lot of distracting sounds in the background. Another thing you need to so is act like a tourist. Pretend you are a player who doesn't know anything about playing blackjack. In order to accomplish this you need to do a few things: get VERY excited everytime you hit a big hand, dress either like a tourist or like a bum, have a drink that looks like alcohol (but isn't) at your table. If you are a girl then dress slutty - the pit bosses will think you are a bimbo.

    STEP FIVE: Bet Spreads

      In order for you to make money, you need to bet more on hands where you have an edge and less on hands where the casino has the edge. For example, if the odds are in your favor then bet $40, if they are against you then bet $5. The difference between the two amounts is known as the "bet spread". The bigger the bet spread the more money you will make but the bigger the bet spread the more likely you will be caught counting cards. So your bet spread needs to be high enough to make money but low enough not to attract attention because a large bet spread is the biggest indicator that someone is counting cards. A 8-1 spread is good but anything bigger and you'll get some heat. Generally, as the count goes more in your favor then your bet spread should be bigger. You can use the following chart as a rough guide on how much to increase your bet with the count.


          Bet Spread
          True Count Betting Units
          +1 1
          +2 to +3 2
          +4 to +5 3
          +6 to +7 4
          +8 or more 5


    STEP SIX: Game Selection

      In order for you to make money you need to satisfy several conditions. Two of the important ones are: the ability to have a decent bet spread and good penetration. "Deck penetration" is how many of the decks in play are actually dealt. The high % of the cards that are dealt the more likely the count is to get high. Therefore, if the casino wants to minimize the probability of the count getting high then they may only deal out 3 out of the 6 decks they are using before shuffling. If there is a game where the conditions are bad then don't play in it. Your profit margin is so thin when card counting that it is very seneitive to the variables involved.

    STEP SEVEN: Bankroll

      You must have a large enough bankroll to suffer any drawdown. You will need at least a few hundred "units" (your small bets) in order to have a decdent probability of surviving. Bankroll swings are more drastic with counting for the same average bet than non-counting. This is because if a non-counter makes 5 bets of $100 then he has an average bet of $100, but if a card counter makes 10 bets of $30, $30, $30, $205, $205 then his average bet wil be $100 also but his large bets means he will have higher fluctiations.


CHARACTERISTICS OF A SYSTEM

Different counting systems can be classified different ways. It is good to be able to look at a system and classify it so that you can see if it fits into your skill level and goals for counting accuracy. Some of the most important classifications used by Norm at qfit.com are:

    Balanced vs. Unbalanced
      In a balanced count, all of the point values add up to zero. In an unbalanced strategy, the sum of all the cards is positive. Unbalanced strategies have an advantage because they can be used in the easier running count systems - although they can also be used in true-count systems. Balanced strategies have an advantage in that they are generally a bit more accurate and makes the counting easier. Usually unbalanced counts are better suited for single- and double-deck games. One of the advantages of balanced count systems is it is easy to see if you are making mistakes when you are jsut learning because the final count when counting a whole deck should be 0.

    Ace-Reckoned vs. Ace-Neutral
      When counting. the Ace is counted as a negative number (Ace-reckoned) or zero (Ace-neutral). Ace-Reckoned strategies are generally better for shoe games and Ace-Neutral strategies are better for single and double deck. Today, Ace-reckoned strategies are more popular.

    Level
      The level of a strategy refers to the highest value assigned to cards. Level 2 and 3 card counting strategies are more efficient, but more difficult for the average people. There are also Level 3, 4 & 5 strategies but you don't need a system that strong. The most popular strategies these days are level 1. In a level 1 strategy, the high cards are counted as -1 and the low cards are counted as +1. Many times, in high level counting systems, the addition profit you get from the higher accuracy of those systems will be more than offset by the mathmatical errors you make with the more complicated system.

    Side Counts
      Some strategies, like the strategy used in The World's Greatest Blackjack book, use one or more side counts. The most common is counting the Aces in a separate count to make betting more accurate in Ace-neutral systems. This is because Aces are large cards for the purposes of betting but small cards for the purposes of playing when you don't have a Blackjack.




CHOOSING A SYSTEM

Right after you decide to learn how to count cards you must decide which system to use. There have been over 100 card counting systems published and you can buy blackjack simulaiton software to test them out. You should definitely learn a simple system. Even though the more complex systems could theoretically make more money per hour, the higher error rate due to mental fatigue and complexity often more than wiped out the gains over simpler systems. Not to mention, going form a simple one-level count to an "advanced" multi-level count produces marginal gain at best, especially in multi-deck games. The most popular counting system used today (and one of the easiest to learn) is Hi/Lo. The system is about average as far as being an effective system to make money from counting cards. This is a good first system to learn because it is easy but effective. It uses a simple one-level count where the Ace is reckoned. (a value on the Ace). Count systems that assign no value on the Ace need to use a "side count" for betting purposes. This is extra work at the table. You can always move up to a more complicated system later on.

          Hi/Lo
          A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K
          +1 +1 +1 +1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1


For those who are going to count against a 1 or 2-deck shoe, you may want to learn a simple Level I counting system that keeps a side count of Aces. When playing with 1 deck, we expect to see one ace per quarter-deck played in a normal distribution. For example, if a quarter deck has been played and no aces have come out, the remaining deck is 'rich' one ace. For betting purposes I can temporarily add +1 to the count, yet for playing purposes the true count without adjustment is correct. Got that concept? If a quarter-deck has been played and 2 aces have come out, the remaining deck is 'poor' by one ace, so I would lower the count by 1 (that is, 'add' a minus 1 to the count ) just for betting purposes, since my opportunity to receive a natural has decreased. Since there are only four aces to track in a single deck game, I find omitting the ace in the count improves the play of the hand, yet I can still 'adjust' the count for betting purposes. This is a very powerful addition to your game, but it is better to just use it in single-deck play because mentally keeping track of an ace adjustment is difficult.

A system that will let you do this is the Hi-Opt I system, where the card 3 through 6 are counted as +1 and all the 10-value cards are counted as -1 and Aces are counted as zero. If switching between single and mutli-deck shoes, you could use Hi/Lo for multi-deck play and Hi-Opt 1 for single deck play.

          Hi Opt I
          A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K
          0 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1


The first counting systems were geared toward single deck, because at the time that was the most popular game. Nowadays, most people play (and therefore count) with a multi-deck shoe. But for those who are plaing single-deck games, the most difficult aspect about it is computing the true count. First you must train your eyes to measure the number of cards which have been played. Then, the hard part is doing the division. In a multideck game, we're dividing by a whole number but in single deck, you're always dividing by a fraction - whic is harder. For example, if you're at a single-deck game and a quarter-deck has been played, with a running count of 6, the true count is 6 divided by .75 = 8.


EVALUATING A SYSTEM

There are certain statistics you can use to evaluation how efficient a counting system is. Three of these stats are Betting Correlation, Playing Efficiency and Insurance Correlation. These are terms created by Peter Griffin, author of Theory of Blackjack. These terms are defined as:

      Playing Efficiency - This tells you how well a card counting system handles changes in playing strategy. Playing efficiency is particularly important in one and two deck games.

      Betting Correlation - This is the correlation between card point values and the effect of removal of cards. It is used to predict how well a card counting system predicts good betting situations and can approach 1.00 (100% correlation.) This number is particularly important in six and eight deck games.

      Insurance Correlation - This is the correlation between card point values and the value of cards in Insurance situation. A point value of -9 for tens and +4 for all other cards would be perfect for predicting if an Insurance bet should be placed.


IT AIN'T EASY

The casinos are not in the business of donating money to gamblers, and they don't like people who can win with any regularity. This leads to the underlying battle between card counters and the casinos. There is a misconception among many people that card counting is illegal, and many casino employees in particular do not feel that card counters should have any rights, treating them as if they were cheaters. As a result, the casinos alter their rules and procedures to combat winning blackjack players. Sometimes, they subtly pull out the welcome mat for players whom they suspect of counting cards; at other times, card counters may be forcibly ejected, legally or otherwise. In extreme cases, they see the counter as a crook, and even report you to a detective agency as such. Sometimes the dealers will count cards along with you and shuffle up only when the count goes in your favor - this is called 'preferential shuffling".


ARE THE GLORY DAYS ARE OVER?

Unfortunately, blackjack is no longer the easy road to riches. This game has become more difficult to beat. It takes a lot more than reading a few books and practicing on a computer simulation. Furthermore, if you do get such a good game, and the casino will turn a blind eye to you as an expert card-counter, they will most likely limit the table's spread to no more than 4 units, and put a maximum cap on bets to $25, or $50, or $100. Mostly, the cap will be about $25 to $50, and that's very rare if this happens at all. The way that Blackjack is now played in major casinos worldwide simply doesn't allow for the practice of the theory. What was once a mathematically sound theory that was able to be successfully applied in practice as a means of defeating the house edge in Blackjack, and thus derive a player-positive expectation from the game and make it turn a profit, is now firmly part of history. Casinos simply got tired of being taken for millions by Blackjack teams and well-bankrolled players, and changed the rules and methods of dealing and playing the game. Additionally, they hired personnel that knew how to count cards better than the players trying to beat the casinos. Furthermore, surveilance technology is now so sophisticated that any person who walks into any casino is instantly identified, and if the casino personnel even so much as suspect that you are a card counter, they will simply ask you to leave. The theory is wonderful -- but no longer as profitable as it once was in practice.


THE REAL DEAL

Most people think of card counting as this wild ride you go on while making and losing millions of dollars. They think if you are making $25/hour then you can make $2 million over a 40-year career. But you cant think of it like that. If you are playing $50 and you have a 1% edge then you are making 50 cents a hand. Not very exciting. You are a toll booth and every hand the casino stick 2 quarters in your pocket. Professional players main measure if their theoretical win rate because that's what they will make in the long-run. If your theoretical win for the week is $500 but you won $7,000 (very possible) then YOU didn't make $7,000. YOU made $500 and luck made you $6,500. Card counters make money the slow and steady way - and it gets boring.


RECREATION

Sometimes card counting is just a phase the average blackjack player goes through. First, he plays blackjack and realizes how much money he is losing. Then he buys a couple of card counting books and decides to learn about it. Then he starts practicing card counting at home. Then he goes to a casino to play and gets marginal results. At this point most quit.

Most people do not have the time, desire, or energy to do what it takes to become an expert card counter. Card counting is not rocket science, but it does takes work. But just because you can't learn how to count cards and turn professional doesn't mean you still shouldn't learn how to do it. There are plenty of players out there who want to improve their game, enjoy the intellectual challenge of taking on the casinos, and hopefully make a few bucks and earn some comps in the process. Even if you only break even at least you will be able to play all the blackjack you want over a lifetime and not lose money (theoretically speaking).


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HomePokerGames Admin
Card Counting June 15, 2006
Card Counting