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Old 02-15-05, 10:58 PM
Iceman37
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The thing is...

...that there really is no formula to know regarding the dynamic hand value he's describing. The only "formula", so to speak, is the exact same formula used to calculate one's own pot odds - just that you apply it as if you're the other guy, after you've put him on a specific hand.

Maybe that's where the confusion is...just how does one determine specific pot odds in a hold'em game as the hand is progressing? Well, that's the coolest (and far and away most important) thing you'll ever learn about the game of hold'em. Keep in mind that, apart from the obvious, this formula really has NOTHING to do with the original poster's question...just that you would use this same formula to (roughly) determine what your opponent's odds of catching would be based on the hand you've put him on.

Now, here's how to calculate, with amazing accuracy, exactly what your odds are at any moment post-flop (again, though, you'll have to have at least a rough idea what you're up against...but then, if you can't put a player on a hand, you've got no business playing hold'em competitively). Let's use the example I put up last post...the infamous four-flush. If you flop two suited cards that match the two suited cards you're holding in your hand, the odds are EXACTLY 1.8 to 1 against you...meaning that you'll hit your flush on the better side of one time in three (if the odds were exactly 2 to 1 against, you'd hit your flush EXACTLY one time in three). Now that's not a calculation that I did on the fly, that's just a mathematic certainty that I (and hopefully every other player reading this!) know from having studied the game. But how could you calculate that on the fly, if you DIDN'T know the precise math?

Well kiddies, pay attention cause this formula will be the most important thing you ever learn about Texas Hold'em (if you don't know it already):

Step ONE - Carefully, CAREFULLY calculate your outs. Bear in mind that if you're shooting for an inside straight looking for a seven, but there are two or three spades on the board and you don't have a spade in your hand, you probably can't count the seven of spades as an "out" since it likely costs you the hand (and costs you big). Again, this is where putting your opponent on a hand is critical.

Step TWO - Multiply the total number of "outs" by the number of cards remaining to complete the hand. So before the turn you'll multiply by two, and before the river by one. Also, bear in mind that this calculation assumes you're playing the hand out, no matter what comes on the turn. In other words, if you're only willing to see one more card (you're going to fold if the turn doesn't help you) then you can only count the ONE card.

Step THREE - Multiply this new number by two percent. This is your percentage for hitting the card(s) that will better your hand and (presumeably) give you the win. SO, let's look at our flush draw...

1. You can see 4 cards of your suit, out of a possible 13. Therefore, to hit your flush, you need one of nine cards...you have nine outs to the flush (is it the nut flush? If not, you may need to adjust accordingly).

2. If you plan to play the hand out to the river (which I strongly suggest you do in most instances), you would multiply the NINE outs times TWO cards remaining to be seen, for a total of 18.

3. Multiply the 18 times two percent, and the odds of hitting your flush by the river are approximately 36%...or about 1.78 to 1 against!

As you can see, this "on the fly" calculation is remarkably accurate, and simple as hell. Remember too that it works for all outs. So if you're holding AK against a queen rag rag flop, and you're sure your opponent is holding just the pair of queens (and no A or K) your "outs" would be six (three A and three K). If you hit one of your outs, you win (unless your opponent hits a second pair...adjust accordingly) and if you don't you lose, so your calculation after the flop would be six times two times two, or 24% (about 3 to 1 against), and after the turn would be six times one times two, or 12% (about 7-1 against).

I'm not going to go into a discussion of determining pot odds here...that's a whole other topic. But if you have a rudimentary idea how to determine pot odds, you can use this on-the-fly calculation to determine when to call if you're behind, etc.

Now, as for the topic at hand...you would put yourself into your opponent's shoes, determine what you feel he's after on the turn and river (count his outs) and then do the math. From this, determine what your bet or raise would do for his pot odds...and act accordingly.

I REALLY hope that nobody I play against reads this...it's one of my best poker "secrets"!