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Old 04-25-05, 08:00 AM
Iceman37
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My thoughts...

I don't have time to read all six pages of replies in this thread, so if someone has already covered some of these things, my apologies. Nevertheless, these are my thoughts:

First (and I realize this is a hypothetical question) you're virtually guaranteed to never see three people at the same table all-in on the first hand of the WSOP. I doubt you'd see three people in the entire TOURNEY allin on the first hand. But one table? Nah...cause there ain't six aces in the deck.

Second, and I'm not completely sure about this because I haven't taken the time to work the math out in my head, but I think you're favored by more than a coin toss. Not taking into account the other two hands for a moment, a SMALL pair is the favorite about 54/46 vs. two overcards, so the largest pair available has to be a bigger favorite because they aren't overcards now, they're undercards. Add in the likely holdings of the other two callers and I think your only real danger is if a king flops to complete a set for one of them. Obviously this is going to happen once in eight hands, and you have to like those odds. The only other real danger I see is that one of the other allins also has the aces, which removes your chance of hitting the set. Likewise, four suited cards hitting the table could spell disaster if there are two AA hands in it together. I think you have to assume that one player is on AK and another on KK (which is a huge advantage to you) or possibly they're both on AK or KK, which is still a huge advantage. If some idiot has risked his entire tournament on QQ or some other nonsense...well you are getting awesome, awesome odds. In ANY case, you're clearly getting pot odds to call, even if it IS only a 50/50 proposition (and it's not).

Third, tripling up on the first day of the WSOP (even by the end of the day, let alone the first hand) isn't a "minor" consideration, either. That would be huge. I guarantee you'll have sponsors coming out of your ear by that point, for starters. And with the big stack comes a big stick. Big sticks take little pots. Little pots build bigger stacks. Bigger stacks make bigger sticks. You see where this is going, of course.

Last but not least, and I've said this many times before, WHO SAYS YOU CAN'T LAY IT DOWN? So it's more than a coin toss...so you're getting good odds...so the call could make you king for the day, and maybe set you up for a run at the final table...so WHAT?

The fact is, if you're any kind of player you can play out the day and make that money anyway--with a lot less gamble. If you're confident in your abilities, you can let ANY hand go, knowing you'll make it up somewhere else down the road. There is no hand in poker that can't be laid down, and only an idiot says otherwise. Your OBJECT is to get your money in there when you have the best of it, no doubt...and you're not going to have much more the best of it than a situation like this...but there's also a risk/reward ratio to be considered, not to mention that feeling in the pit of your gut if you call and get beat. Think about it this way...if you call and get beat, you have a long ride home and a long year to think about what could have been. But if you muck and see that you would have WON had you played, you have a long tournament ahead of you and a full stack of chips with which to make up for it. Is it any different than the guy who folded the J3os to see the flop come 3 3 J? You see it as the right call for the situation, and you go on to play your tourney. You still have a chance to win when you're sitting at the table.

You only have a bag of peanuts when you're sitting on the plane back home.

SO IN CONCLUSION, my thoughts are this...it IS a 50/50 proposition. Do you go, or don't you? Either call is the right call. And that call comes down to one thing--do you have the balls to play the best hand in poker at the biggest rodeo there is, for a shot at glory?

I know one thing...I'm not tellin'. Hell, I'm not even speculating. Put me in that situation--I'll decide then.