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  #1  
Old 09-11-04, 08:30 AM
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Dynamical value of the hand.

Hello!

Can anyone explain me how the dynamical values of the hand are calculated?

I had read several articles (See for example these links: [url]http://www.online-texas-holdem-poker.net/poker_strategy_expert.html[/url] [url]http://www.pokertips.org/advanced/hvalue.php[/url] )

I can calculate odds using free Poker Odds Calculator available from Simtel [url]http://www.simtel.com/pub/pd/81133.html[/url].

If I know pot odds on the river I can calculate expected value, but how it relates to the dynamical value of the hand I have no idea.

If I do not know pot odds I don’t know how this dynamical value should be evaluated.

Any ideas?

Regards, PS
  #2  
Old 09-28-04, 04:03 PM
scoopin scoopin is offline
 
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You talking about implied odds?
  #3  
Old 02-13-05, 02:18 AM
Iceman37
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Great Question...sortof.

Chances are pretty good the original poster will never read this, but it's a pretty good question in a way and so deserves some attention (for future readers).

My interpretation of his question is this - he's trying to determine the "pot value" of his hand, on a running basis, and at the same time more precisely calculate his hand's value based on the number of other people in the pot and their play, also on a running basis. In short, he's trying to most accurately calculate the legitimate worth of his hand at any given time BEYOND the simple mathematical calculation of odds to improve vs. pot odds.

When you can do that, you're ready for the big leagues my friend. Unfortunately, it isn't a mathematic calculation, like determining pot odds. It has far more to do with playing the player, not the cards, and is something I honestly believe comes either with significant experience or superior instincts. You can't just "learn" to figure it like you can pot odds.

But more pertinent to the question at hand is that, well, this ISN'T the question at hand. The technique to which you are referring, "dynamic value of the hand", at least as it relates to pot odds, has nothing to do with determining the value of YOUR hand. Your hand value should be relatively clear to you or you shouldn't be playing. The "dynamic value" in question here is what YOUR actions do for the OTHER player's pot odds, I. E. will your raise drive your opponent out, or will it merely grow the pot to such an extent that he has no choice but to call? This is a huge consideration, particularly in limit hold'em, most especially in LOW limit hold'em. The gist of "dynamic hand valuation" in this case is, just what do you do with, say, your KK versus a queen-high flop with straight possibilities, for instance. This can be a simple answer if you're playing with a table full of boobs who wouldn't know the first thing about pot odds (or any other odds, for that matter), or if you're against only one or two opponents in the hand. Most of the time you'd bet/raise the hell out of your hand and hope you either scare them out or they just don't "catch". But what do you do when the field is larger, and/or the players are NOT boobs and may very well know their precise odds and the calculation of pot odds? "Dynamic hand value" is the calculation of the best likely bet/raise to maximize profit on your likely-winning hand WHILE NOT CREATING SUFFICIENT POT ODDS TO ENTICE ANOTHER PLAYER TO CHASE THE HAND THAT WOULD SURELY BEAT YOU. The situations that cause you to have to make this determination are many and varied, and again require sufficient knowledge of the players involved to aid you in determining the hand they are most likely playing (so as to enable you to properly calculate THEIR pot odds, not yours) and that, in a nutshell, is the "dynamic" part of dynamic hand valuation. It's dynamic both because the calculations change with the cards that hit the board, and because you may have to reevaluate what you've put your opponent on in the middle of the hand...and THEN rate the relative strength of your hand and begin calculating your OWN outs and pot odds.

Geez, I hope all of that made sense...
  #4  
Old 02-14-05, 12:11 PM
SuitedAce
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Hand Value

Nice Lecture....but you never answered the question.
  #5  
Old 02-14-05, 11:03 PM
Iceman37
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I didn't answer...

...because I don't really think his question HAS an answer, so to speak...

If I interpret what he's asking about correctly, then the "calculation" changes from moment to moment, as one puts his opponents "on" a hand...essentially the calculation is "my opponent(s) have XX, so he/they have X number of outs, so my bet/raise does X to that player's pot odds for that particular hand or draw". So if I have my opponent on a river-card draw for a flush that would beat me, I know I need to keep the pot odds at less than 5 or (at best) 6 to 1 or so or I'm likely to get called, and possibly beaten. But that calculation changes from card to card, from player to player, from moment to moment...hence, the "dynamic" part.

Now perhaps I've misinterpreted the question...but that's my take on what he's asking.
  #6  
Old 02-15-05, 11:09 AM
Suited Ace
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Hand Value

I understand what you mean.....and I understand that it is hard if not impossible to calculate that information without knowing all of the exposed cards...but I think he was asking (and I may be wrong) HOW to calculate the value....meaning the formula.

I've been playing with moderate success for a long time and actually have just now started learning the math....it's had an amazing effect on my game (my limit game in particular). I enjoy your posts so keep em' coming!



Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceman37
...because I don't really think his question HAS an answer, so to speak...

If I interpret what he's asking about correctly, then the "calculation" changes from moment to moment, as one puts his opponents "on" a hand...essentially the calculation is "my opponent(s) have XX, so he/they have X number of outs, so my bet/raise does X to that player's pot odds for that particular hand or draw". So if I have my opponent on a river-card draw for a flush that would beat me, I know I need to keep the pot odds at less than 5 or (at best) 6 to 1 or so or I'm likely to get called, and possibly beaten. But that calculation changes from card to card, from player to player, from moment to moment...hence, the "dynamic" part.

Now perhaps I've misinterpreted the question...but that's my take on what he's asking.
  #7  
Old 02-15-05, 10:58 PM
Iceman37
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The thing is...

...that there really is no formula to know regarding the dynamic hand value he's describing. The only "formula", so to speak, is the exact same formula used to calculate one's own pot odds - just that you apply it as if you're the other guy, after you've put him on a specific hand.

Maybe that's where the confusion is...just how does one determine specific pot odds in a hold'em game as the hand is progressing? Well, that's the coolest (and far and away most important) thing you'll ever learn about the game of hold'em. Keep in mind that, apart from the obvious, this formula really has NOTHING to do with the original poster's question...just that you would use this same formula to (roughly) determine what your opponent's odds of catching would be based on the hand you've put him on.

Now, here's how to calculate, with amazing accuracy, exactly what your odds are at any moment post-flop (again, though, you'll have to have at least a rough idea what you're up against...but then, if you can't put a player on a hand, you've got no business playing hold'em competitively). Let's use the example I put up last post...the infamous four-flush. If you flop two suited cards that match the two suited cards you're holding in your hand, the odds are EXACTLY 1.8 to 1 against you...meaning that you'll hit your flush on the better side of one time in three (if the odds were exactly 2 to 1 against, you'd hit your flush EXACTLY one time in three). Now that's not a calculation that I did on the fly, that's just a mathematic certainty that I (and hopefully every other player reading this!) know from having studied the game. But how could you calculate that on the fly, if you DIDN'T know the precise math?

Well kiddies, pay attention cause this formula will be the most important thing you ever learn about Texas Hold'em (if you don't know it already):

Step ONE - Carefully, CAREFULLY calculate your outs. Bear in mind that if you're shooting for an inside straight looking for a seven, but there are two or three spades on the board and you don't have a spade in your hand, you probably can't count the seven of spades as an "out" since it likely costs you the hand (and costs you big). Again, this is where putting your opponent on a hand is critical.

Step TWO - Multiply the total number of "outs" by the number of cards remaining to complete the hand. So before the turn you'll multiply by two, and before the river by one. Also, bear in mind that this calculation assumes you're playing the hand out, no matter what comes on the turn. In other words, if you're only willing to see one more card (you're going to fold if the turn doesn't help you) then you can only count the ONE card.

Step THREE - Multiply this new number by two percent. This is your percentage for hitting the card(s) that will better your hand and (presumeably) give you the win. SO, let's look at our flush draw...

1. You can see 4 cards of your suit, out of a possible 13. Therefore, to hit your flush, you need one of nine cards...you have nine outs to the flush (is it the nut flush? If not, you may need to adjust accordingly).

2. If you plan to play the hand out to the river (which I strongly suggest you do in most instances), you would multiply the NINE outs times TWO cards remaining to be seen, for a total of 18.

3. Multiply the 18 times two percent, and the odds of hitting your flush by the river are approximately 36%...or about 1.78 to 1 against!

As you can see, this "on the fly" calculation is remarkably accurate, and simple as hell. Remember too that it works for all outs. So if you're holding AK against a queen rag rag flop, and you're sure your opponent is holding just the pair of queens (and no A or K) your "outs" would be six (three A and three K). If you hit one of your outs, you win (unless your opponent hits a second pair...adjust accordingly) and if you don't you lose, so your calculation after the flop would be six times two times two, or 24% (about 3 to 1 against), and after the turn would be six times one times two, or 12% (about 7-1 against).

I'm not going to go into a discussion of determining pot odds here...that's a whole other topic. But if you have a rudimentary idea how to determine pot odds, you can use this on-the-fly calculation to determine when to call if you're behind, etc.

Now, as for the topic at hand...you would put yourself into your opponent's shoes, determine what you feel he's after on the turn and river (count his outs) and then do the math. From this, determine what your bet or raise would do for his pot odds...and act accordingly.

I REALLY hope that nobody I play against reads this...it's one of my best poker "secrets"!
  #8  
Old 03-03-05, 12:31 PM
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This is great information but to call it you're "secret" is just silly.
  #9  
Old 03-21-05, 02:46 AM
Andon
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Iceman know his stuff

Icemans posting has alot to do with determining how much to bet in no limit hold um. I've just recently started to take my game to another level were im winning more then loosing. It all has to do with ether extacting more money out of your hand or giving your opponent the wrong price to make the call. So now I just tend to really lose less because I know that even though someone might be bluffing I know sometimes its not worth in to see.


Thanks Iceman I love the info and insight!!
  #10  
Old 03-23-05, 01:32 PM
CAPPARELLA CAPPARELLA is offline
 
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Very well written there Iceman, I usually cut a corner and multiply my outs times 4 on the turn for the odds and times 2 for the river to get that estimated percentage...as far as the pot odds are concerned you need them to be higher than your hand odds in order for it to be worth the call...
  #11  
Old 03-23-05, 02:11 PM
HPG ADMIN HPG ADMIN is offline
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<< I usually cut a corner and multiply my outs times 4 on the turn for the odds and times 2 for the river >>

This is good stuff. I actually do the math in my head but I think I will start using this rule.
  #12  
Old 03-27-05, 12:21 AM
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The one thing that everyone forgets is that even when you draw to your "outs" you should undervalue making your hand (hand odds) slightly due to:

Your "outs" are not really "outs" because you are already beat and cannot win if you hit.

some of your outs are also your opponents outs with a better hand

some of your outs are your opponents outs with the same hand (split pot)

An example would be if you were on an nut flush draw and your opponent has two pair, your cards can give you your flush but can fill your opponent.
Just because you hit your cards, your opponents can hit theirs too. So just becasue your getting correct odds hand vs pot, to call you probably shouldent unless you are getting slightly better pot odds or you can confidently put your opponents on their hand.
  #13  
Old 04-13-05, 03:39 AM
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pot odds are simple. you just calculate the amount you need to call in relation to the pot. example if after the turn you are chasing the flush and there is 5000 chips and someone bet 1000 to you, then your pot odds are 5 to 1. therefore if you have a 20% chance or higher to hit the card you need then you are getting the right pot odds to call.
  #14  
Old 04-13-05, 09:10 AM
Iceman37
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Some clarifications...

Regarding recent posts in answer to my original explanation of the math behind determining your "outs"...

First, one author mistakes my meaning when I said this calculation is one of "my" best poker secrets. The whole sentence reads:

I REALLY hope that nobody I play against reads this...it's one of my best poker "secrets"!

My meaning was that it's a secret that I know and most of my opponents DON'T know...in that regard it is "my" secret. I was not implying that I came up with the formula or that I'm in any way the only one who knows it...just that most who I play with don't.

Secondly, a poster came in with a suggestion regarding how carefully you should determine how "live" your outs really are. His concern is correct and should be given significant thought, though it doesn't necessarily enter into the "calculation" part of the conversation. The "calculation" simply works with whatever number of "outs" you assign to the problem to begin with. The poster makes a mistake when he says that you should "undervalue" your hand (after the calculation) based on your number of outs, because some of those outs may not give you a win. To be accurate, what he should have said is you should accurately determine your "true" outs based on what you believe your opponent(s) likely would be holding. So, as in his example (and a good one), your nut flush draw doesn't give you 9 outs if you believe your opponent holds two pair...it gives you 7 outs (because two cards of your suit would give him the boat). So you must calculate based on 7, not 9. Your calculation would then be correct, because you've correctly valued your likely outs. The math is just easier this way, and it's the more proper way of doing things than trying to adjust the value of your hand AFTER you've made your pot odds calculations.

It's also important to note that while professional players seem like geniuses at reading exactly what an opponent is playing...well, they're not. They read a hand the same way they play the game (unless they've got a solid read on their opponent by some other means--for example, a "tell"). What I mean is, they base their "read" on the most likely hand a player is playing based on the information they've gathered from the hand. This is by no means a perfect science. So if it's imperfect, how do they adjust for that fluctuation? It's simple...they determine as best they can what percentage chance they're WRONG ("I believe there's a 75% chance he's on a flush draw"), and they adjust their outs accordingly. So if, based on their "read", they have four cards that would give them the win--they adjust this downward by one to just 3 outs (dropping 25% of their "outs" to adjust for the 25% chance they're wrong on their read) or ADDING OUTS in the same fashion based on what their opponent's next most likely holding is. This is an imperfect method too, of course...but it brings the math more closely in line. This is critical because, as you should have figured out by now, this is a math game. That's really what poker is all about.

The trick to being an excellent rather than a good poker player is not just in knowing what the calculations are, but in being able to actually do the math on the fly--in five or six seconds! Master that and you're well on your way to poker greatness.
  #15  
Old 04-13-05, 09:33 AM
Iceman37
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Two things I forgot...

Here's two other things...first, to correct something I said in that last post...regarding the "flush draw" versus the "two pair drawing to a full house"--the number of outs available may be 7, 8 or 9, based on what is on the board and what the liklihood is your opponent has matched those two cards for his two pair. So if your board is As Qs 6d, and you hold Ks 9s while you put your opponent on AQos, then you are still drawing nine cards for your flush (because the A and Q are already on the board). If you have your opponent on the A6os (why are they playing that crap?), you would be drawing eight cards to your flush because the spade six could come, giving you a flush but your opponent a full house. So this is the long way of saying that the outs calculation for a flush draw versus a full house draw is not automatically adjusted from 9 available suit cards to 7. I misstated this.

Secondly, a poster mentioned that he usually "cuts the corner" and determines his likely percentage (using the calculation mentioned earlier) by multiplying by 4 on the turn and 2 on the river. At face value this sounds fine...but it's a bad habit to get into, and here's why; doing this automatically assumes you're playing the hand out through the river. In other words, you can only multiply by 4 (or by 2 cards remaining to be seen times 2 percent, as in my example) IF YOU INTEND TO SEE BOTH OF THE REMAINING CARDS. This is a CRITICAL determination, particularly in limit hold'em.

Here's why you NEED to use the 2 times 2 instead of the 4...because there will be times when you calculate your pot odds based on only seeing ONE MORE CARD. An example would be when you hold two overcards--let's say AJos--against a board of, say, 2 5 9 rainbow. Based on the existing pot and the betting this round (which again is why this is often more important for LIMIT rather than NO LIMIT) you may say to yourself "I can see ONE more card", hoping to draw an ace or a jack against what is likely someone's pair of nines--BEFORE THE BET DOUBLES (as in limit) AND MAKES IT IMPROPER TO CHASE THE LAST CARD. So your calculation would be SIX outs times ONE card remaining times TWO percent...or a twelve percent chance of hitting your card ON THE TURN (which is where you HAVE to hit it or you're dumping the hand). If you habitually use the 4 in place of the 2, you're going to accidentally miscalculate sooner or later and it's going to cost you. So it's a much better habit to make your brain present the equation as "XX number of outs times XX NUMBER OF CARDS REMAINING TO BE SEEN times 2 percent". I know it seems like semantics, but do yourself the favor and learn to think this way--every bet saved (by not making a mistake) is a bet earned.
  #16  
Old 07-04-05, 09:06 PM
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This is all very good (excellent post and I have learnt alot) however don't you calculate by 2.2% not 2%?

Correct me if i'm wrong but this was my understading
  #17  
Old 07-05-05, 02:03 PM
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2%

It is not exactly 2%, except for the first card of the flop (if you could take just one), but it is very close to it. Closer than 2.2% anyway.
 

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