Folding Pocket Aces in a tournament

[HPG ADMIN]

It is the first hand of the WSOP, a player goes all-in with and 3 players call. You figure at least a couple of them have high pairs and ther other player a decent hand. Against 3 other players, AA is a slightly better than 50% favorite (54%). Do you call looking to quadruple up and take the chip lead - knowing you could also bust out on the first hand? or fold knowing that you can double up your stack anyway with less risk - knowing that having the chip lead on the first day means nothing?

[Lottery Larry]

If you won't play Aces here, why are you in the WSOP again?

[NJstomp]

Let me ask you this. How many times have you had aces cracked? In fact I think Men Nguyen got his aces cracked by going all in with them at the WSOP. In the beginning of a 10,000 buy in tourney this would really be a tough choice. I know ultimately, most likely I would call. Agaist one person with out a doubt, but with two people going all in it before it gets to you the chances of some hittin a set is for real. Odds are you'll come out ahead, but do you want to risk all your chips this early?

[WKBUCF]

you have the best possible hand and if u cant risk all your chips w/the best hand going in to the flop/turn/river then i dont think u have what it takes to win it all. granted, being the 1st hand it is kind of out of the ordinary, but id definitely call.

[JOHNNYAND]

i TOTALLY AGREE WITH WKCBUF

[nutem]

You have to play them. If you can't risk an all in on pocket Aces then you cant win the WSOP. You probably can't make it to the second day.

If you that scared of the first hand but would play normal in any other hand than fold the first hand w/out looking. Just to get rid of your superstition. That way you wouldn't know what you folded. If you folded pocket aces and would have won the first hand you would be kicking yourself "tilt" until you went out.

[Senjitsu]

With an all in, and two callers before me, I would fold ni a heartbeat.

For me, its all about the marginal chip value and the implied odds. I am risking all 10K in chips for about a 50-50 chance of winning 30K. That sounds like a good bet at first, but the advantage that those extra 30K in chips brings me just isnt worth the risk of losing the "more important" first ten thousand chips.

If youre going to win the WSOP, you cant make a habit of putting all your chips at risk on a coin toss.

[Curmudgeon]

I fold. Better chances await me deeper in the tournament. The important question to consider: "Will my aces be the best hand after all the cards fall?"
With five cards to come, you risk all for a relatively small double-up?

Cheers: Curmudgeon

[Unregistered]

If it was a cash table and this was the first hand I would call. In tournament play u have three goals: make the money, final table, and then win. You can't get there if you are always going for a coin flip. With that said I would "CALL!!!"

[Unregistered (Chad)]

U gotta call! If you lose, you know you went down making the right play. Luck is part of the game. I've lost with the aces more than i've won with them. But odds are, you will win. You are there to gamble. In a 50/50 decsicion, you could very well triple up. If you triple up, you will very seldom if ever, have to bluff to make it to the next round. So, play the aces.

[Unregistered]

If two or more players already went allin, there's a good chance one of them is holding KK and the other AK, which gives you a much better than 50-50 chance to win the hand. I doubt you'll be facing any 89 suited though, which is one of hands you'd have to fear the most.

[Unregistered]

if you fold the aces you will be gutted. but if you play em and they get beat that would be worse. play em your a gambler!

[Unregistered]

any two hole cards can win or lose, and pocket aces are too good to pass up, got to play 'em

[24hr-player]

i would fold....hate aces...hate aces...hate aces... the ultimate busting hand. never hit a set ...b/c usually anyone who calls usually has an ace or kings.

[Unregistered]

Poker, believe it or not, is a game of odds. Get in when you have the best odds. Get out, when you don't (or bluff). You can have a boat cracked by quads, and quads cracked by a straight flush. If you play too scared to make a move with the best hand - you'll never win at this game.

And whoever said "taking the chip lead early in a large tournament means nothing" is plain wrong. Survival is number one, granted, but survival becomes very easy when you triple up on the first hand.

[ACESUP]

You can't win the WSOP on the 1st day! I would call 1 person but not 2.
Survival is the key to make the final table! and that's where you want to be, that's how you get the BRACELET!!!!

[flash]

have to call, cant fold pre flop you will have to out draw me to win

[paynegod]

you are getting 4 to one on your money-- there is no way someone has a better preflop hand and if the F---ing world series of poker--
HOW CAN YOU NOT CALL

If you get beat at least you do it with the best hand and amazing preflop money odds

If you win you quadruple up and can relax with 50000 chips on day one which will make you the big swinging dick by the end of the day... in fact you can most likely steal more blinds and dominate the table when you get good hands....

chips are POWER-- even on DAY ONE

[Unregistered]

Although I would be very nervous I would call. If you hold up you triple up or more depending on callers. Also, some may call with less than a pair and if they hold an ace you dominate them improving your odds over them greatly.

In the end, calling is just mandatory. There is just no way to avoid it.

[Unregistered]

Thought I would post my two cents in this topic...I have viewed this site for the first time today and am a accomplished tournament player. As far as the Pocket rockets go I dont care if it is the first hand or not you play them heads up without a doubt,if there are other callers as tempting as it would be to play you MUST lay them down.....if you are deeper in a tourney and have low chips then ok go for it but in the begining why leave the tournament up to luck? How many times have you had your AA cracked? I myself can think of numerous times being all in and losing to a smaller PP or suited connector to some crazy player which thought his hand is huge...with that being said and you have to admit that there is luck involved in tournament poker that you dont want to get your money in a multiple action hand and risk your overlay to be kicked out of a tourney with top pair and a two outer. If you are a good player and do have a overlay on the rest of the field there is no need for me to even tell you what to do...but for those players up and coming remember that you can always outplay them later....personally I like to take the small ones over and over again and stay away from the big pots which can bust you out unless the circumstances are right of course,once again your biggest advantage is your overlay...if you have it use it if not...well I will bust you out!

[Unregistered]

It all depends on the number of people in the pot. Heads up, of course, but other than that, not on the first hand. Just an FYI, earlier today I had AA, another player had KK and a third we found out at the end had Q-7 suited, so that makes 3 people all-in, guess who won, the Q-7 suited on a flush.

Sure with AA you are the favorite everytime, but with too many callers its just not going to hold up as the favorite for a winner I would guess even 50% of the time against 3 or more callers. I am sure there is some type of odds calculator out there that could tell us the %.

[Unregistered]

Stupid Question, Because You Only Get This Premium Hand Once In A Tournament. Play Or Fold? Obvious, Let It Ride. Odds Are You're Not Gonna Win The Tourney Anyway So Quit Playing The Odds. They Only Cause You Confusion And Second Guessing. If You Look At The Hole Cards And Have A Doubt, Fold. I Can't Name Anyone Who Looks At Aces In The Hole And Thinks, Tough Decision.

[Unregistered]

i would play it everytime ..going in blind with 3 callers its a dream hand.
poker is all about taking chances, isn't it?

[Unregistered]

you should call EVERY time pre-flop with pocket Aces, especially early in a tourney.

The only time it would be correct to fold would be a situation where you are one person away from finishing in the money and there are 2 people all in in front of you, or a similar situation like that.

But this being the first hand, especially if you feel that you are a good poker player even against 3 hands I am still a 56% favorite (especially considering with people going all in preflop they either have AKs or KK or a lower pair which greatly improves your odds.) and a 56% favorite and the chance to have 4x the amount of starting chips, you could easily use your chips to your advantage.

Personally, I think all you can hope for while GAMBLING and playing poker is to get your money in while you have the best hand... and there is no better situation than this. If my Aces got busted first hand of the WSOP, of course I'd be upset, but I would at least know that I had made the correct move.

~Kyle.

[Chad]

Anybody who folds pocket Aces before the flop is a big rotting vagina and deserves to bust out on the next hand. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[tdarko]

of course it's tough anytime no matter the situation to fold aces. i have never folded aces in any tourny but i will tell you about the time i did.

8 years ago i started with a 5K bankroll here in dallas and decided that i would start playing as a main source of income and not just the little 4/8 games i was playing with friends. i got hooked up in a 10/20 nl game and it was a game i felt i could crack since i had played with all of them before.

i bought in for my bankroll (wrong and dont ever do it, haha) and within 30 minutes i am dealt aces in the big blind. by the time it gets to me three people are all in and they cover me so it would be me that would be all in.
i thought about it for a while and mucked the nuts because if i lost that hand i would lose my entire bankroll (which was my fault for putting my bankroll on the table). plus i knew this was a game that if i gave a chance i could crack; three hours later i doubled through and walked with 10k and have been playing around dallas ever since making poker my job...by the way my aces would have been cracked by queens.

[Unregistered]

I was at a final table with three people left. I was on the button and had the middle stack. I was dealt AK suited and I called the big blind to slow play. The SB went all in quickly followed by the BB. I deliberated for a while and decided that they both had pairs and I would be on a draw. I folded. The SB showed JJ and the BB showed TT. No Ace or King hit the board. I went on to win. That hand was nerve racking.

[jpe99]

In a recent freeroll tourney i had this problem. holding pkt aces on the button two all ins right before me with bigger stacks. knowing my aces are going to get busted I go all in(as i go all I type in the chat collum my aces are going to get busted). sure enough all in #1 pkt 8s all in #2 pkt 9s #2 flops a set.
Even knowing I was going to get busted I still went all in why? becouse I had pkt aces.

[Unregistered]

Obviously your thinking way too hard about this situation. Poker is gambling. Aces are the best starting hand, your never going to have a better starting hand to gamble with, so gamble. If you lose on pocket aces, you didnt deserve it then and there. But its very unlikely.

[Unregistered]

I could think of very few circumstances where I would not make this call. If there are 3+ players all in I would think about it but proally still call.

Pocket Aces is the champion. People just remember more distinctly when the champion goes bust than all of his victories.

[Unregistered]

I think if ya toss Pocket Aces you play to tight and are going to bust anyways.

[Chris728b]

There is a time to fold pocket Aces, you as a poker player need to know when that time is depending on the flop.

[Chad]

Never fold aces before the flop.

[Chad]

See title above

[Unregistered]

I couldnt even finish reading the rest of the threads. First hand you say? Well, what exactly is in the pot?.. The smallest there will ever be, and you want to call with more than one or two unknown players? Just to get an early lead? Wait until there's something to fight for. Dont fly paper dragons, just to kill other paper dragons. Obviously you're concerned, therefore you realize there is a risk of gettin' broke. If youre concerned, you must have some skill. Use it later on when there's reason to fight. You know the odds. Youve seen the beats. Did you go there to gamble? Or to play the once-a-year Big One? For one hand?

Skill must count for something. The others who go all-in are weaker. They NEED the early lead. Let them gamble themselves out the door.
You?....
You survive

[Unregistered]

AA KK QQ A-k, usually dont hold up after the flop especially if ur opponent flops to cards to the flush ot str8 which happens a lot, but would they have called an all-in bet pre flop with 10-9 suited i know i wouldnt, and the people that do are either really convinced that poker is gambeling, or they have so much money that it doesnt matter, or they are complete Newbs or idiots, besides AA&kk are the first and second best starting hands in hold em, and poker is about getting it in when u got the best of it and protectin it when ya dont, so if you go all in with AA pre flop u know ur dominating ne other possible hand there so go ALL IN. ive seen a lot of people lslow play em and get busted. just remember its better to win small then to lose big.

[Unregistered]

Your Odds are the same as the other three guys for hitting your Set. SO actually they have to hit a card(s) to beat you. If someone goes all in with Suited Connectors this early then he deserves to be knocked out. If he hits his cards then you're out but that is why you play to take a shot at winning the tourn. by playing scared you will never win the whole thing. You may make it to a late round and get some money back but you will never win.

Example: The other day in a live tourn I pushed all in on the 2nd hand with QQ, a player two to my right raised from 25 to 200. He had A Q suited I had QQ. I assumed (correctly) that he had the ace and had to ask did I want to take the chance of being knocked out this early. Well my Qs held up and I went on to the final table with the help of AA a few hands later and KK after that both hands I put someone all in and they called with A in the hole.

My point, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

[Unregistered]

you are getting 4 to one on your money-- there is no way someone has a better preflop hand and if the F---ing world series of poker--
HOW CAN YOU NOT CALL

If you get beat at least you do it with the best hand and amazing preflop money odds

If you win you quadruple up and can relax with 50000 chips on day one which will make you the big swinging dick by the end of the day... in fact you can most likely steal more blinds and dominate the table when you get good hands....

chips are POWER-- even on DAY ONE
I completely agree...very well said

[Chad]

Anyone who disagrees (In a tournament style game) is a pussy and should never be playing poker to begin with.

[herbiedeals]

My son likes to read this forum but there are a few people who cant keep it clean.

[Unregistered]

I see what you are saying but this is poker, colorful words are almost part of the game.
My 7 yr old daughter would like to see scary movies but we don't let her...

[Unregistered]

Why Call? no reason to call. You can wait out anything except an all in. It does not show that you are weak. It shows that your odds have increased due to the fact that 3 people will be out of the tournament. The point of day one is to survive and pick up enough pots from weaker players. Why risk your entire tournament on one good hand with good odds? There will be plenty of hands in your favor that you do not need to risk it all. But as mike would say "**** it Im all in"

[Locohombre]

Why Call? no reason to call. You can wait out anything except an all in. It does not show that you are weak. It shows that your odds have increased due to the fact that 3 people will be out of the tournament. The point of day one is to survive and pick up enough pots from weaker players. Why risk your entire tournament on one good hand with good odds? There will be plenty of hands in your favor that you do not need to risk it all. But as mike would say "**** it Im all in"

You DO realize that by getting your money in with the best hand with that many callers it is in your favor to at least triple up. You are at worst, a coin flip. If you lose, it is unlucky. That happens in poker. If you win, you could go take a nap for 3 hours and proabally come back in the money and having a descent chance to win still. If you are not willing to call with pocket As before the flop, you shouldn't be playing poker at all. PERIOD!

[Unregistered]

How could u fold aces its the best starting hand . if its the world series and u pay 10,000 to enter this u should ber ready to gamble. every bodys in with overs or pairs your way ahead before the flop no ones calling with suited connectors.If your scared get a dog playing tight in tournaments gets u nowhere.blinds will eat u up.this strategy isnt playing tight its playing scared and scared money doesnt make money.man up and triple up and then u can play tight.

[Unregistered]

if you not gonna call with aces, then you have no stones and dont even play.

[Unregistered]

*the most important thing you do in hold em is fold. knowing when to fold is priceless...why would you call 2 all ins on the first hand? i kno of guys that play at local tournaments that they do that every tourny on their first hand regardless of what their holding...why? because they know that no one wants to be in that position the first hand of a tourny. ive laid down plenty of huge pocket cards when two or more people have gone all in and its never been the wrong decision :)

[Locohombre]

*the most important thing you do in hold em is fold. knowing when to fold is priceless...why would you call 2 all ins on the first hand? i kno of guys that play at local tournaments that they do that every tourny on their first hand regardless of what their holding...why? because they know that no one wants to be in that position the first hand of a tourny. ive laid down plenty of huge pocket cards when two or more people have gone all in and its never been the wrong decision :)

Did you not read the question? We are talking about pocketAs. I might fold them after the flop on a rare occasion or 2, but never before. If you ever fold pocketAs before the flop, you are obviously inexperienced. IF you go in with the best hand (As), you should WANT more people to call. You will be a coin flip at the worst and if you win, you can likely coast into a paying position without even playing a hand.

Bottom Line: Folding IS important, but folding the best hand is idiotic.

[brofriend]

only time to fold is late in a tournament when you are shortstacked and people are in too move up in prizes

[Unregistered]

Did you not read the question? We are talking about pocketAs. I might fold them after the flop on a rare occasion or 2, but never before. If you ever fold pocketAs before the flop, you are obviously inexperienced. IF you go in with the best hand (As), you should WANT more people to call. You will be a coin flip at the worst and if you win, you can likely coast into a paying position without even playing a hand.

Bottom Line: Folding IS important, but folding the best hand is idiotic.

This is not entirely true. When there are (too) many callers your pocket aces become weaker. You will have the best starting hand but the more people see the flop the more likely it is that one out of the pack gets ahead of you.

It's hard to fold them, but if there are three or four people calling, the odds to win the hand with AA can be a lot worse than a coin flip...

[Unregistered]

There are implied odds. Yes AA is the best STARTING HAND. Not the best hand. If you have pocket pairs you want to put in a large size bet before the flop to limit your competition, hopefully everyone will fold and you will win the blinds right there. If not, you are in a great position to make alot of money or lose alot of money. You do not want to lose money in a tournament and become short stacked early. People who slow play or overplay top 5 starting hands early get busted early. If there are 2 and you callers all in, you are most likely at 50% to win. 3 and you, you are at best are 40% to win. Now I ask you would you bet $10,000 when you are an underdog? Dont look at the hand strength look at the implied odds of the overall gamble. Even at 50%, that early in tournament, I would fold. There are too many times in a tournament, after the flop, that you will be able to make up that lay down. Never over value a pre flop hand. Its takes skill to properly play after the flop. Anyone can call all in pre flop and win the most money possible, Even with 7-2 os. Lay and wait, undervalue your starting hands before flop(bet them, but dont overplay them), and when you hit a hand play it properly after the flop. Thats how winners win. How many times have you seen the top 5 chip leaders after day one finish in the money? Doesnt happen very often.

[Unregistered]

You're not the underdog in the hand if it's the first hand of the tournament. If everyone has equal stacks, AA has pot odds on any number of all-ins. Since it's an all-in situation for everyone, just compare how much money you're getting back for what you're putting in and compare with the odds of you winning. For you and 2 callers if you're 50% to win and getting 3-1 pot odds, easy choice. Even for 40% with you and 3 callers getting 4-1 it works out. Whether you're willing to risk the tournament right there is up to how you want to play the tournament, but since everyone in the hand is going to need to rely on their pre-flop odds, your best bet is to call.

[Unregistered]

unless something has changed and a pair now beats a set, a straight, or a flush, this is the one time you can sleep good at nite knowing u did the right thing by folding. remember, if you call this is a 5-way hand to the end. in a 5-way pot, a pair, even a pair of aces, is vulnerable. think about this...you could even lose to another pair of aces if one of those four players is sitting on AK and another ace hits the board. there are entirely too many ways to lose this hand for it to be worth it.

i see a lot of posts that talk about guts and luck, but the key to playing good poker is to make decisions that take emotion and luck out of the equation. a well executed bluff doesn't take balls, it takes the intelligence to analyze the situation and determine if the bluff is playable. poker also requires patience, impatient play will get you a seat at the bar more times than it will a seat at the final table. think twice, act once, fold the aces and watch 3 people go home.

[HPG ADMIN]

Here is a new twist. Now say you are in a satellite where the Top 10 make it to the WSOP. There are 11 left. You are very high in chip count and someone with a bigger stack goes all-in. You know you are a big favorite in the hand but if you get knocked out then you don't make it. Giving up Aces here would still be a blow to the ego . . . but please tell me no one would call this.

[Unregistered]

There are implied odds. Yes AA is the best STARTING HAND. Not the best hand. If you have pocket pairs you want to put in a large size bet before the flop to limit your competition, hopefully everyone will fold and you will win the blinds right there. If not, you are in a great position to make alot of money or lose alot of money. You do not want to lose money in a tournament and become short stacked early. People who slow play or overplay top 5 starting hands early get busted early. If there are 2 and you callers all in, you are most likely at 50% to win. 3 and you, you are at best are 40% to win. Now I ask you would you bet $10,000 when you are an underdog? Dont look at the hand strength look at the implied odds of the overall gamble. Even at 50%, that early in tournament, I would fold. There are too many times in a tournament, after the flop, that you will be able to make up that lay down. Never over value a pre flop hand. Its takes skill to properly play after the flop. Anyone can call all in pre flop and win the most money possible, Even with 7-2 os. Lay and wait, undervalue your starting hands before flop(bet them, but dont overplay them), and when you hit a hand play it properly after the flop. Thats how winners win. How many times have you seen the top 5 chip leaders after day one finish in the money? Doesnt happen very often.

This i my earlier post


The above talks about pot odds. You cannot value pot odds as much because you cannot pull money out of your pocket, and keep playing when you lose the hand. You can never make up the odds if you are not playing anymore. If this was a ring game, its a no brainer. Even with 10 callers i would call because even if i lose, in the long run i will make money with that play. There is a huge stratagy difference on hold-em and tournament hold-em. That why alot of pros still do not play tournament holdem.

[Unregistered]

This i my earlier post


I think my post reads strange so im adding this to clarify. I would fold the aces in the tournament but with 10 callers in a ring game would call every time.

The above talks about pot odds. You cannot value pot odds as much because you cannot pull money out of your pocket, and keep playing when you lose the hand. You can never make up the odds if you are not playing anymore. If this was a ring game, its a no brainer. Even with 10 callers i would call because even if i lose, in the long run i will make money with that play. There is a huge stratagy difference on hold-em and tournament hold-em. That why alot of pros still do not play tournament holdem.

I think my post reads strange so im adding this to clarify. I would fold the aces in the tournament but with 10 callers in a ring game would call every time.

[Unregistered]

Here is a new twist. Now say you are in a satellite where the Top 10 make it to the WSOP. There are 11 left. You are very high in chip count and someone with a bigger stack goes all-in. You know you are a big favorite in the hand but if you get knocked out then you don't make it. Giving up Aces here would still be a blow to the ego . . . but please tell me no one would call this.

this is a more interesting situation than the original question, becuase now you're inferring a potential one-on-one hand, in which case the aces give you much more leverage. it would be safe to assume that big stack has a high pair, or is suited, possibly with connectors (with at least one over card). the other twist is the fact that he's all in, which typically means he DOESN'T want a call, especially one seat away from the WSOP. i'm not sure...but there are some days i'd call this just because i'm feeling lucky or have a read on big stack...

[Unregistered]

If it such a bad play here is the case where it worked out increbibly well. Im in 2nd place in the tourney with 8 people left. I have 95k in chips the chip leader has 115k and moves all in preflop I look down and see AA then look around the table and realize there are 3 people with less than 10k and noone else has more than 30k, and the only person that can knock me out just moved in on me so I folded AA. He makes a flush and I live on(he also knocked out 2 people). Iget down to the final 4 and we make a deal for $1400 each. If I call there and get knocked out I lose $1200 because Icouldn't let go of AA. The point is yeah you have aa but if the situation calls for it where you could make alot more $ by folding you have to do it. Please tell me how this was a bad play. If I would have won the hand(after folding) I still would have been happy with the play because for that situation it was the correct play.

[Unregistered]

if your going to play your hands scared youll lose more often than not. folding aces in that situation is a terrible fold even though he may have caught the flush. ive lost with aces all in preflop many times. you cant be scared and fault yourself for going in with the best hand. if you would have won that hand you would have had a substantial chip lead and more than likely won the tournament. more often than not you will win with aces all in preflop. if your aiming to just place in the tourney rather than win it all, be my guest. you should come play cards with me and my friends. ill shake your hand for folding aces. as far as the idiot who says they folded aces cause 2 guys were all in first hand, thats just retarted. no matter how many people are all in you are the favorite versus everyone else. you have to calculate your pot odds and if you wanna win or just cruise. but folding aces preflop is just retarted, period.

[Unregistered]

if your going to play your hands scared youll lose more often than not. folding aces in that situation is a terrible fold even though he may have caught the flush. ive lost with aces all in preflop many times. you cant be scared and fault yourself for going in with the best hand. if you would have won that hand you would have had a substantial chip lead and more than likely won the tournament. more often than not you will win with aces all in preflop. if your aiming to just place in the tourney rather than win it all, be my guest. you should come play cards with me and my friends. ill shake your hand for folding aces. as far as the idiot who says they folded aces cause 2 guys were all in first hand, thats just retarted. no matter how many people are all in you are the favorite versus everyone else. you have to calculate your pot odds and if you wanna win or just cruise. but folding aces preflop is just retarted, period.

here we go again...what do pot odds and probability have to do with playing scared? poker, despite the fact that it is an overwhelmingly men's game, is not about beating your chest, it's about beating your opponent.

and since when has conservative play been indicative of mental retardation? the whole purpose of this forum is to hear other players' thoughts and possibly learn from them, not brag about how great a player you are and how everyone else is a timid fool...did i see u on WPT last nite?

[Unregistered]

If you want to talk about odds the odds of me winning that hand(aces vs. chip leader aqhearts). I am a maybe 6-1 favorite but it could cost me about 9-1 money wise if i get unlucky. Folding aa preflop is not a bad play for another reason lets say you are the 5th guy to call now your only like 2-1 against 5 people. how do the #'s work out now for a supposed retard when other people are getting knocked out and you make more real cash. Afterall what good is a big stack through out the tourney if there is no cash in your pocket on the way home.

[_lj_]

Ok, I've got a little story about this situation. I was playing in a 60 person tournament at a local bar (10 people per each of 6 tables). I got delt the pocket aces on the very first hand of the tournament. I'm sitting one position to the right of the button, one person goes all in before me so I go all in thinking I'm invincible. He beats me with 3 jacks. Here's the kicker - the bar has a siren to signal when the first person is out. So I had to wade my way through a laughing and pointing crowd to the bar to soak my sorrow. Would I go all in again? I honestly don't know:)

[Unregistered]

That is a brutal story. Funny though. I think that the arrogance is the worst thing about poker. When someone out draws you and then brags about it and acts like a fool. I hate that. I act calm but im already steaming from the loss and heres this A hole laughing and telling me how great he is. also when the person is not a very good player and starts telling me how to play as the game goes on because i got beat in a couple of hands early. That sometimes works out because he will start to over value his hands and i can get some good cash of of him but it still makes me want to bitch slap him.

[Unregistered]

to my unlucky friend who did what any good poker player would do with pocket bullets..............

remember, "what goes around, comes around."

get right back on that felt, go right back to that tournament, and listen for that siren....only this time you won't be the one walking away from the table with your head between your legs...he will.

Bradley (North Carolina)

[Unregistered]

Here's something that happened to a buddy of mine at a tournament here in Columbus, OH. It was a NL tourney with 1 rebuy. He sat down and his first hand was AA, in late position. Before him there was a bet and a raise of all in. He called. I can't remember what the guy had (I know my buddy does!) but it wasn't that good and he pulled a straight to bust the aces. He bought in again and his first hand was AA again! Same story, an all-in in front of him that he called only to get busted again. It's awful but I laughed so hard when that happened.

[Unregistered]

Alright, I'll put my two cents in on this issue. Seeing as how I only read the first 2 pages of this I'm probably just repeating what someone else said. You don't go all in with the pocket aces. Here's why.

People go all-in with good hands for the most part. AA, KK, AK, QQ. Now more than likely the second caller is going to have a hand that is REALLY good that he/she would risk their tournament life on. Most likely this hand contains an Ace. I'd bet on AK suited or maybe even the other two aces. Therefore your hand is VERY unlikely to improve. If you read these posts you notice that many times the pocket aces were cracked by someone making trips. If there aren't any aces out there for you to get your trips with, you're effectivly sitting there with your fingers crossed that you don't get beaten. Not something you want to do.

Toss the hand aside and wait till you can out play people on the flop. Remember the winner of that hand will have a lot of chips that you can take over the coming hands.

[Unregistered]

Now more than likely the second caller is going to have a hand that is REALLY good that he/she would risk their tournament life on. Most likely this hand contains an Ace. I'd bet on AK suited or maybe even the other two aces. Therefore your hand is VERY unlikely to improve. If you read these posts you notice that many times the pocket aces were cracked by someone making trips. If there aren't any aces out there for you to get your trips with, you're effectivly sitting there with your fingers crossed that you don't get beaten. Not something you want to do.


Good point. If there are a number of callers the two remaining aces may very well be hole cards for other callers, and you can hardly improve your hand. Therefore it is an excellent reason to fold. But... only if there are a lot of callers.

If there's only one caller or perhaps two players, I will go all-in with my AA. Despite the horror stories. Let's not kid ourselves. The AA horror stories are so well known because they are the exception to the rule. Would you tell your buddy if you beat someone with AA? I think not.

[Unregistered]

Alright, I'll put my two cents in on this issue. Seeing as how I only read the first 2 pages of this I'm probably just repeating what someone else said. You don't go all in with the pocket aces. Here's why.

People go all-in with good hands for the most part. AA, KK, AK, QQ. Now more than likely the second caller is going to have a hand that is REALLY good that he/she would risk their tournament life on. Most likely this hand contains an Ace. I'd bet on AK suited or maybe even the other two aces. Therefore your hand is VERY unlikely to improve. If you read these posts you notice that many times the pocket aces were cracked by someone making trips. If there aren't any aces out there for you to get your trips with, you're effectivly sitting there with your fingers crossed that you don't get beaten. Not something you want to do.

Toss the hand aside and wait till you can out play people on the flop. Remember the winner of that hand will have a lot of chips that you can take over the coming hands.

That was the most idiotic theory I have ever heard. OK so I have AA, you have AK. Your going to have to have KK hit the board to beat me with no A falling. I have AA you have KK, QQ, JJ. I have you beat, I dont need help. An A is just as likely to fall as a K, Q, or J. If someone is all in, and they do have AQ, AJ, A10 or A anything else, then they should not be playing poker. Those are not all in hands the first hand of a tourney...SO, if you have AA, play that somone will go all in, I do, and I win most of the time. If you are afraid of getting busted out first, find a new game.

[Unregistered]

Ok, I've got a little story about this situation. I was playing in a 60 person tournament at a local bar (10 people per each of 6 tables). I got delt the pocket aces on the very first hand of the tournament. I'm sitting one position to the right of the button, one person goes all in before me so I go all in thinking I'm invincible. He beats me with 3 jacks. Here's the kicker - the bar has a siren to signal when the first person is out. So I had to wade my way through a laughing and pointing crowd to the bar to soak my sorrow. Would I go all in again? I honestly don't know:)

You obviously played the hand right, getting all of your chips in while being a 4 to 1 favorite. You simply got unlucky. Sh-t happens.

[Chad]

Alright, I'll put my two cents in on this issue. Seeing as how I only read the first 2 pages of this I'm probably just repeating what someone else said. You don't go all in with the pocket aces. Here's why.

People go all-in with good hands for the most part. AA, KK, AK, QQ. Now more than likely the second caller is going to have a hand that is REALLY good that he/she would risk their tournament life on. Most likely this hand contains an Ace. I'd bet on AK suited or maybe even the other two aces. Therefore your hand is VERY unlikely to improve. If you read these posts you notice that many times the pocket aces were cracked by someone making trips. If there aren't any aces out there for you to get your trips with, you're effectivly sitting there with your fingers crossed that you don't get beaten. Not something you want to do.

Toss the hand aside and wait till you can out play people on the flop. Remember the winner of that hand will have a lot of chips that you can take over the coming hands.

Keep in mind that THEY are the ones that have to catch cards to survive. Catching the 3rd A would only be an added bonus. Never count on the 3rd A.

[Unregistered]

Good point. If there are a number of callers the two remaining aces may very well be hole cards for other callers, and you can hardly improve your hand. Therefore it is an excellent reason to fold. But... only if there are a lot of callers.

If there's only one caller or perhaps two players, I will go all-in with my AA. Despite the horror stories. Let's not kid ourselves. The AA horror stories are so well known because they are the exception to the rule. Would you tell your buddy if you beat someone with AA? I think not.


play poker much??? when I have AA in my hand I want as many others to go all in as possible. i mean unless they have a pocket pair also they need to hit 2 cards to beat you. with a pocket pair they have as much chance or getting trips as you do. I've seen it get beat plenty of times but I still want to get AA all the time.

[maverick]

uh, that theory makes perfect sense. sure you're a big leader going into the flop with pocket rockets, but so what? I rarely play any pocket pair all in due to the fact that I really only have :::::TWO::::: outs to improve my hand. Now, when 20 cards are delt preflop, you're telling me that my two outs haven't been compromised? I have 5 cards to make my 2 outs.. the odds of that are not in my favor.

someone with AJ/AQ/KQ even a suited connector has so many damn outs to bust me it's not worth the risk.

2 outs vs 20, which would you rather be?

i've seen aces go down to two pair, straights, and flushes all the time.. pocket rockets are ONLY effective in smaller games. a 10 player tourney will get you some callers, especially if people get married to hands... because we all know that those are the ones that get lucky the most.

[RioCosta]

Yes, but that 20 card thing also applies to the other person's outs as If someone has let's say QJ, you don't think at least one of their hole cards/drawing cards has been compromised? All the more unlikely that they will be able to pull a two pair/straight/etc....

Gosh, if you're scared to go all in (preflop, of course) with the best hand in the game then you shoulod probably stick to Go Fish or something.

Without knowing anyone's hole cards:

AcAd QsJs
% chance of outright win 80.121053 19.522410
% chance of win or split 80.477590 19.878947
pots won: 1374968.50 337335.50

There, I even gave you that the AA didn't even have his suit.

EVEN WHEN BOTH OF YOUR ACES ARE DEAD:

Dead/exposed cards: Ah As

AcAd QsJs
% chance of outright win 78.642411 21.000997
% chance of win or split 78.999003 21.357589
pots won: 1080438.00 290316.00


The results are similar for KQ, KJ, Q10 etc.... suited and much worse for any Ax suited.

Here, I'll even show you with one of the hands you mentioned


AcAh AdQd
% chance of outright win 86.838494 11.916692
% chance of win or split 88.083308 13.161506
pots won: 1497596.50 214707.50

And here's with the last ace dead


Dead/exposed cards: As

AcAh AdQd
% chance of outright win 85.825056 12.846143
% chance of win or split 87.153857 14.174944
pots won: 1326695.50 207243.50


So, in conclusion, the guy got fucking lucky. That's all there is to it. You made the right play and you lost. It's just the nature of the game that's all.

[Unregistered]

Kind of funny that these people are saying "you shound find another game" if their belief is to fold. You must under value your aces before the flop with a lot of callers. period. If you want to call, call. Unfortunatly the 1st day of the wsop the amount of chips that can be won is smallest in the ntire tournament, and can be made up easy later. Think about it, all in on day one is a big blind on day 2.

[Unregistered]

I dont think everyone is realizing the situation warrants the fold not the odds. As I have written before I folded them in a tourney where i was in 2nd place and the leader moved in the reason was i knew if i call and lose i lose alot of cash if i fold and watch the sub 10k stacks get knocked out (I had 95k) then i make real $, and it worked the chip leader knocked out 3 people and it made me $400 immediatley and eventually made me $1300. If you can move up in real money by folding then it is the right play everytime. Take this situation your the chip leader at the wsop and its 3 way the 2nd place and shortstack have about the same amount. your in the bb, the button moves in and the sb calls you have aa in the bb but if you fold you know one will get knocked out or crippled. Why wouldn't you fold here you'll move up in real cash and also go into heads up with at least the same amount of chips.

[Unregistered]

Gosh, if you're scared to go all in (preflop, of course) with the best hand in the game then you shoulod probably stick to Go Fish or something.


Do you have any calculations that are less obvious than a headsup all-in pre-flop, let's say AA vs 2 or 3 players all-in already. Now, that would be good information.

[Unregistered]

I dont think everyone is realizing the situation warrants the fold not the odds. As I have written before I folded them in a tourney where i was in 2nd place and the leader moved in the reason was i knew if i call and lose i lose alot of cash if i fold and watch the sub 10k stacks get knocked out (I had 95k) then i make real $, and it worked the chip leader knocked out 3 people and it made me $400 immediatley and eventually made me $1300. If you can move up in real money by folding then it is the right play everytime. Take this situation your the chip leader at the wsop and its 3 way the 2nd place and shortstack have about the same amount. your in the bb, the button moves in and the sb calls you have aa in the bb but if you fold you know one will get knocked out or crippled. Why wouldn't you fold here you'll move up in real cash and also go into heads up with at least the same amount of chips.

Your right, but the original question was the following:

It is the first hand of the WSOP, a player goes all-in with and 3 players call. You figure at least a couple of them have high pairs and ther other player a decent hand. Against 3 other players, AA is a slightly better than 50% favorite (54%). Do you call looking to double up and take the chip lead - knowing you could also bust out on the first hand? or fold knowing that you can double up your stack anyway with less risk - knowing that having the chip lead on the first day means nothing?

The problem with the above, is that the question is making assumpions on the other players hands. You could be under 50% to win with 3 other people in the pot with you.


Three and its probably a fold. because

You can lose and be out of the tournament, if it was for anything under 50% of my chips, i would call. You can make up the loss the next time you are dealt a very strong hand if you have chips left. You cant make up those losses if you are out of the tournament.

So everyone quoting odds: your odds are only good if you have the time to make the odds real.

As an example: Even though the odds are in their favor, a casino can lose alot of money in a 15 min time frame(say they had to pay a couple of big jackpots). If the casino was forced to close down right then, just like you would have to leave the tournament by calling and losing, they would go out of business even though they had better odds.

Lets say that the casino has a 10% theoretical advantage on you. They will win 10% more often than you. But thats not the only odds that you should look at. Out of 10 trys with a 10$ bet, your total loss theoretically is -$10. But short term fluctuations can easily make someone win 4 times in a row. If you stop playing after winning 4 times, you will make +$30 out 10 bets. Hence, beating the odds and going home a winner. Now, if there was someone making you play 1000 games in row, the short term fluctuations will go both ways, and the casino will win everytime because the odds have time to catch up.

This is why casinos can work on a small percentage on some games. Its Time that makes odds work, not short term fluctuations. You have one advantage the the casinos do not want you to know.......You can leave anytime when you are up. They will stay open, they have to because they are playing long term odds and thats what makes them winners. not a short term fluctuations , win/loss. That is why casinos dont care when someone wins, they know that they will make it up long term. They cannot do that if the player stops playing or if the casino shuts down.

Poker is one of the few games that a player can have an advantage long term if played properly. Not short term. No one has a short term advantage. The turn of the cards can make anyone a winner. Even a bad starting hand. but if played long enough, the the good hand/player will make up the loss if the betting is the same in the same situation.

Why the same? because if you lose a $1000 bet on PAs you cant try and win it back by betting $100 in the same situation, or only getting 2 callers instead of 3. If you do, you are getting even worse odds for your PAs, because you paid more to win less

Now...If your PAs, at a short term percentage at 50%, get busted in the first hand in the WSOP, do you think, long term, you will ever be in the WSOP, in the 1st hand, with PAs, and 3 callers?

Those odds are so large they cannot be calculated.(unless you consistantly play in $10,000 tournaments with 2500 entrants)

Therefore, a fold is obvious.

Not because you cant win, but because the short term odds actually trick your brain into thinking that it is a good call. You are therorically getting 3 to 1 on your bet, and you have the best hand. But if you lose, and you are only a 50% favorite, you will never be able to make up the loss.

If you are in a low limit tourney that you play every week. Its a good call to make. Your odds of making up that loss will eventually catch up to you, and you will make back your short term 3 to 1 bet.

[Unregistered]

playing poker is gambling. if your not willing to gamble with aces preflop you should bet on something else. yes, if your in a tournament and your delt aces and three people are all in your odds arent too great. you can fold and rub your vagina or you can gamble and try to quadruple up knowing your going in with the best hand. its just common sense.

[Unregistered]

I agree, Pocket Aces is the best hand you can get pre flop....what more do you want...My philosophy is if My Pocket Aces are cracked it just wasnt meant to be...

[Unregistered]

Thanks for the 'long casino post'. A new perspective on why you should at least consider folding AA going against 3 or more on the first hand. Refreshing view compared to the two posts following who continue to confuse playing smart with a sex change.

[Buffalo-817]

The way I see Aces is simple. All-in with aces with 3 or 4 shooters already in is treacherous, a set or two pair makes you a guy looking to kick the dog!
I would like to be the first all-in in that situation. I suppose most of the posts up there are sound in that, why play poker if you are to fold the best possible pocket hand there is?

[Unregistered]

playing poker is gambling. if your not willing to gamble with aces preflop you should bet on something else. yes, if your in a tournament and your delt aces and three people are all in your odds arent too great. you can fold and rub your vagina or you can gamble and try to quadruple up knowing your going in with the best hand. its just common sense.

I love players who think playing poker is a gamble. It makes it so much easier for true poker players to win. Keep it up.

[jtex_!]

There is no absolute answer in this situation. The best you can do is to put the other players on hands and make the best decision. Call when it’s best, fold when it’s not. In short, just play good poker.

My initial answer was to fold because I’ve played in too many online tournaments where players go all-in on the first hand just looking to double up. In this situation I will play only AA, and I HAVE YET TO WIN A POT. Q8 or J10 or something usually takes it. And, I thought, the aces are a coin flip against three other random hands. But then it occurred to me that the three other hands should NOT be random, especially to a good poker player. Think about what your opponents have. What would they go all in with at the WSOP? Q8? AK? AA?

Here’s a possibility: you’re in the big blind with aces. For some asinine reason a player in late position goes all-in to steal the blinds. We’ll say he has 65s. I know, it’s ridiculous on the first day, when the blinds are pennies, but answer me this… would it be the most ridiculous move you’ve ever seen at a poker table? Not me. Maybe he won his buy in at a free satellite and has no confidence in his ability against the competition. These thoughts are going through the head of the player on his left as he looks down at his pocket jacks. He gets a read and calls. The button player has pocket kings and is a gambler. He likes to mix it up. He calls. Next comes you with your aces. In this situation I would fold. You are a little over 2-1 favorite over the second favorite hand (65s amazingly), but only about 48% to win it all. YOU ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE ELIMINATED. If the gambler on the button has aces instead of kings you are about 52% to tie, 46% to lose and only 2% to win with a four-flush. So you’d be 54% not to lose. Remember that a tie still doubles you up and knocks out the first two players. Most games I’d gamble in this situation but not the first hand at the WSOP. You could make an argument to call or fold here. Your tournament life would depend on a coin flip. In fact, I think that’s the most likely scenario, a group of four hands like this.. JJ KK AA AA. Since it’s probably going to be a chop, you’re only getting about 2-1 on your money, not good pot odds, so I’d fold.
Here’s when I’d call…
This is a plausible possibility: suppose in the original example the first player didn’t have 65s, say he had AK. So it’d be AK, JJ, KK, AA. You go from 48% to win to 64% to win. I would call for sure with this much of an advantage.

So I guess what I’m trying to say is that I’d try to put my opponents on hands (yeah I know, not easy on day 1 hand 1) and call only when I know I have a sizeable advantage to double or quadruple up, not just throw my chips in blindly because my 2 cards say AA.

[Unregistered]

on every forum i have seen this question asked, the answer is no Don't fold them it's not like pocket aces strength decreases in a tournament and have you ever seen a pro fold pocket aces, if you have then it's probably after the flop

[RioCosta]

First of all, if you let three people into the flop with the pocket aces, then it's your damn fault. Honestly unless they are all playing premium hands (in which case their cards pretty much cancel each other's out and give you an even better chance to win) you fucked up with the raise. Unless you went all in and three other people called (which is pretty unlikely unless you're playing with a table so bad it would cause the universe to explode).


1,086,008 pots with board cards: (unspecified)

AcAs AhQh KdKh QcQs
% chance of outright win 64.133782 7.546445 18.741114 7.718636
% chance of win or split 65.276315 9.406468 19.168367 8.863379
expected return, % of pot 64.598235 8.369644 18.847927 8.184194
fair pot odds:1 0.548030 10.947940 4.305623 11.218674
pots won: 701542.00 90895.00 204690.00 88881.00

1,086,008 pots with board cards: (unspecified)

AcAs AhKh QcQs KsKd
% chance of outright win 63.810211 8.713564 15.687453 10.577823
% chance of win or split 64.943076 9.924513 16.114798 11.083252
expected return, % of pot 64.269807 9.212202 15.794290 10.723701
fair pot odds:1 0.555941 9.855168 5.331402 8.325139
pots won: 697975.25 100045.25 171527.25 116460.25

1,086,008 pots with board cards: (unspecified)

AcAs AhJh QcQs TcTd
% chance of outright win 55.659074 9.860056 16.672990 16.788919
% chance of win or split 56.678036 10.879017 16.955400 17.071329
expected return, % of pot 56.097952 10.298934 16.743592 16.859521
fair pot odds:1 0.782596 8.709743 4.972434 4.931367
pots won: 609228.25 111847.25 181836.75 183095.75

Honestly, these are likely never to happen in because by the first or second call people without the best of the best hands (like mr AJs right here) will be 99% sure to fold). Gosh, the guy made the right play, the right play just doesn't win all the time, especially if you get enough bad plays against you.

The guy was in late position, went all in and got called by probably one or two dumbasses too many.

I can't imagine this happening in real life. If you were playing online (because 75% of the people online are a breed of sub-mongoloids).then it's probably more likely, but really only at incredibly low stakes. I couldn't imagine someone risk their 100 dollar buy in on q10 suited, now matter how bad they are.

[RioCosta]

Yeah I would fold aces if they were 48% against kings and 56s except:

1,370,754 pots with board cards: (unspecified)

AcAs KhKd 5s6s
% chance of outright win 60.904582 17.726740 21.082485
% chance of win or split 61.190775 18.012933 21.368677
expected return, % of pot 60.999980 17.822138 21.177882
fair pot odds:1 0.639345 4.610999 3.721907
pots won: 836159.67 244297.67 290296.67

1,370,754 pots with board cards: (unspecified)

AcAs KhKd 5h6h
% chance of outright win 61.159916 17.471479 21.082485
% chance of win or split 61.446036 17.757599 21.368604
expected return, % of pot 61.255290 17.566853 21.177858
fair pot odds:1 0.632512 4.692539 3.721913
pots won: 839659.33 240798.33 290296.33

There, you're a 61% favorite. Again, no reason to fold.

[RioCosta]

I'm sorry I didn't read the JJ, yes you are correct at 48%. However, considering you're only contributing 25% to the pot you should call.

[RioCosta]

Also, you have to weigh the risk vs. reward factor. If you win this pot, you control almost as many chips as the rest of the table has combined, a huge adavantage when it comes to buying pots. Also, you're in a much better position to finish in the money then you were before. Placing in large tournaments is a very difficult thing to do, how many world class players do you know actually finished in the money at last year? It'd be much harder to quadruple up and avoid bad beats etc..... In that scenario you have a good chance to be in a dominating position early on.

[Locohombre]

Also, you have to weigh the risk vs. reward factor. If you win this pot, you control almost as many chips as the rest of the table has combined, a huge adavantage when it comes to buying pots. Also, you're in a much better position to finish in the money then you were before. Placing in large tournaments is a very difficult thing to do, how many world class players do you know actually finished in the money at last year? It'd be much harder to quadruple up and avoid bad beats etc..... In that scenario you have a good chance to be in a dominating position early on.

Are you willing to gamble? You are likely looking at around a coin flip with that many callers. If you are not ready to gamble, you have no business playing poker, and you should go home and cry in a corner because you will never win by playing THAT conservative.

The quote above states the prize for winning the coin flip perfectly. You will likely place in the money in the tournament if you play your cards right with that big of a chip stack.

[Unregistered]

A few weeks ago I went all in before the flop with pocket aces and 2 other people called. I lost the pot to something stupid. It happens. It was the 1st hand.

[Iceman37]

I don't have time to read all six pages of replies in this thread, so if someone has already covered some of these things, my apologies. Nevertheless, these are my thoughts:

First (and I realize this is a hypothetical question) you're virtually guaranteed to never see three people at the same table all-in on the first hand of the WSOP. I doubt you'd see three people in the entire TOURNEY allin on the first hand. But one table? Nah...cause there ain't six aces in the deck.

Second, and I'm not completely sure about this because I haven't taken the time to work the math out in my head, but I think you're favored by more than a coin toss. Not taking into account the other two hands for a moment, a SMALL pair is the favorite about 54/46 vs. two overcards, so the largest pair available has to be a bigger favorite because they aren't overcards now, they're undercards. Add in the likely holdings of the other two callers and I think your only real danger is if a king flops to complete a set for one of them. Obviously this is going to happen once in eight hands, and you have to like those odds. The only other real danger I see is that one of the other allins also has the aces, which removes your chance of hitting the set. Likewise, four suited cards hitting the table could spell disaster if there are two AA hands in it together. I think you have to assume that one player is on AK and another on KK (which is a huge advantage to you) or possibly they're both on AK or KK, which is still a huge advantage. If some idiot has risked his entire tournament on QQ or some other nonsense...well you are getting awesome, awesome odds. In ANY case, you're clearly getting pot odds to call, even if it IS only a 50/50 proposition (and it's not).

Third, tripling up on the first day of the WSOP (even by the end of the day, let alone the first hand) isn't a "minor" consideration, either. That would be huge. I guarantee you'll have sponsors coming out of your ear by that point, for starters. And with the big stack comes a big stick. Big sticks take little pots. Little pots build bigger stacks. Bigger stacks make bigger sticks. You see where this is going, of course.

Last but not least, and I've said this many times before, WHO SAYS YOU CAN'T LAY IT DOWN? So it's more than a coin toss...so you're getting good odds...so the call could make you king for the day, and maybe set you up for a run at the final table...so WHAT?

The fact is, if you're any kind of player you can play out the day and make that money anyway--with a lot less gamble. If you're confident in your abilities, you can let ANY hand go, knowing you'll make it up somewhere else down the road. There is no hand in poker that can't be laid down, and only an idiot says otherwise. Your OBJECT is to get your money in there when you have the best of it, no doubt...and you're not going to have much more the best of it than a situation like this...but there's also a risk/reward ratio to be considered, not to mention that feeling in the pit of your gut if you call and get beat. Think about it this way...if you call and get beat, you have a long ride home and a long year to think about what could have been. But if you muck and see that you would have WON had you played, you have a long tournament ahead of you and a full stack of chips with which to make up for it. Is it any different than the guy who folded the J3os to see the flop come 3 3 J? You see it as the right call for the situation, and you go on to play your tourney. You still have a chance to win when you're sitting at the table.

You only have a bag of peanuts when you're sitting on the plane back home.

SO IN CONCLUSION, my thoughts are this...it IS a 50/50 proposition. Do you go, or don't you? Either call is the right call. And that call comes down to one thing--do you have the balls to play the best hand in poker at the biggest rodeo there is, for a shot at glory?

I know one thing...I'm not tellin'. Hell, I'm not even speculating. Put me in that situation--I'll decide then.

[Iceman37]

...one of the posts I DID read said, in effect, that you have to play the AA and then added "have you ever seen a pro fold AA?"

The answer is YES. Daniel Negreanu did EXACTLY that, and then devoted his entire column in Cardplayer Magazine to the play.

Of course it wasn't the first hand of the WSOP. He wasn't looking at tripling up. And his reasoning had nothing to do with the odds or the cards or winning or losing (he did it for purely psychological reasons...to prove to himself that he could!)

So yes, there has been at least one pro (the best in the business, I might add) who has folded the rockets.

[Unregistered]

It is the first hand of the WSOP, a player goes all-in with and 3 players call. You figure at least a couple of them have high pairs and ther other player a decent hand. Against 3 other players, AA is a slightly better than 50% favorite (54%). Do you call looking to double up and take the chip lead - knowing you could also bust out on the first hand? or fold knowing that you can double up your stack anyway with less risk - knowing that having the chip lead on the first day means nothing?

With Pocket ACES, I personally Feel you must call & go All in

www.davidnigh.com check out Poker Cruise info there

[Unregistered]

I think it makes a lot of sense to fold the Aces in a tournament game like this. While it's true that the odds are in your favor, the tournament isn't about maximizing your take from any given hand, it's about staying alive. If you're sitting on AA and two players in front of you are all-in before the flop, at least one of them is playing more aggressively than his cards warrent, and I'm happy to have one less source of unpredictability at my table. In order to advance, I want to play at a table where there are fewer people who consistantly bet big before the flop, because I want to see more flops without having to reguarly risk my stack.

Early on, I'm fine with laying low a bit and learning a bit about the other players' styles. I'm just not interested in putting my whole tournament on a coin-flip, even if by winning it, I won the table. I've got enough confidence in capacities to beat the rest of the table over time using playing and reading skill, rather than letting it all ride on the first hand.

So, in this case, I fold and let one or more of these guys bust. True, the one who wins doubles or triples up, but if he keeps playing loose, I'm not worried about him keeping all of those chips.

[Locohombre]

...one of the posts I DID read said, in effect, that you have to play the AA and then added "have you ever seen a pro fold AA?"

The answer is YES. Daniel Negreanu did EXACTLY that, and then devoted his entire column in Cardplayer Magazine to the play.

Of course it wasn't the first hand of the WSOP. He wasn't looking at tripling up. And his reasoning had nothing to do with the odds or the cards or winning or losing (he did it for purely psychological reasons...to prove to himself that he could!)

So yes, there has been at least one pro (the best in the business, I might add) who has folded the rockets.

If he folded them before the flop, then it was a terrible play. On the flop? Could be a great fold, depending on what he's up against. Folding the best possible starting hand before the flop is a terrible idea.

[Unregistered]

shutup

[thatguy]

Tournament in Vegas, just a $65 buy-in, down to 4 players. I was sitting on about 70% of the chips, with the other 3 sitting on about 10% each. I'm in the big blind, and the 3 players before go all in. My mindset was to win money that day, so the hardest play of my life was folding ace/ace. With 3 players going all in before me i put someone on another ace, leaving me to a lone ace or a impossible flush or straight draw. the 3 players turned over their cards, showing KQ suited, A/K Suited and 9/9. The 9's trip up on the flop and another ace never shows, making me the loser in the hand. So with that 1 fold, i ended up 70% vs. 30% heads up, and moved my winnings up a guarenteed $1500, ended up winning the whole tournament and taking about $4000 i beleive.

[Unregistered]

But can we stay on topic? - Folding pocket aces on the first hand of a tourney, not at the final table.

[thatguy]

"have you ever seen a pro fold AA?" was the topic, so be quiet, mmk thanks?

[Unregistered]

Folding Pocket Aces in a tournament

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It is the first hand of the WSOP, a player goes all-in with and 3 players call. You figure at least a couple of them have high pairs and ther other player a decent hand. Against 3 other players, AA is a slightly better than 50% favorite (54%). Do you call looking to double up and take the chip lead - knowing you could also bust out on the first hand? or fold knowing that you can double up your stack anyway with less risk - knowing that having the chip lead on the first day means nothing?

[Unregistered]

ummmmmmmm CALLLLL!!!!!

[Unregistered]

It depends on your poker skills. If you're a Phil Helmuth or Daniel Negreanu (or whoever your favorite professional player may be) then you fold. Those guys are not going to put their tournament life at stake on a coin flip on the very first hand of the biggest tourney of the year, no matter what cards they're holding. They rather outplay their opponents and create better odds for themselves.

But for people like you and I, who basically need to triple up on the first day to have a chance to stay alive and go deeper in the tournament, I think it's fair to say you should call.

[deekay140]

A coin flip??? Pocket aces are 65% favorite to any hand preflop. If your not gonna play them, why play at all.

[Unregistered]

Pocket aces are only 85% preflop when its heads up, against 4 players its like 35% preflop.

[Unregistered]

Someone else has the ace obviously. Stupid to go all in first hand..wait till you see them again when you know more about your fellow players.....easy call...most people see poker aces and blow their load....i've lost with them more than I've won with them.....id rather see the flop with pocket two's then go up against a couple wild players preflop with rockets.....

[VINCE]

I Been Playing For 20 Years Never Say Never! Yes Sometimes Under Unique Circumstances You Will Or At Least Better Consider Folding The Aces. Here Is The Deal: In A 9 Person Hold Em Game, 80% Of The Time 3 Aces Are Dealt Out In All Variations. If You Have Someone Make A Big Bet Preflop And You Hold Aces Its No Big Deal But If 3 Or More People Call, Get Out!!!!!! At Least 1 Of The Other 4 Are Holding An Ace So You Are Already Looking For The Case Ace Pre Flop! The Best Thing For Guys Like Me Is Espn Showing These Tournements. People Dont Understand They Are Generally Watching The Last Table Of A Tourney. Play Is Considerbly Different In The Phase Of A Toureny And Certainly Way Different In A Money Game. Remember 1 Thing No One Tells You, Holdem Takes 5 To 15 Minutes To Learn And A Lifetime To Master:)

[Locohombre]

I Been Playing For 20 Years Never Say Never! Yes Sometimes Under Unique Circumstances You Will Or At Least Better Consider Folding The Aces. Here Is The Deal: In A 9 Person Hold Em Game, 80% Of The Time 3 Aces Are Dealt Out In All Variations. If You Have Someone Make A Big Bet Preflop And You Hold Aces Its No Big Deal But If 3 Or More People Call, Get Out!!!!!! At Least 1 Of The Other 4 Are Holding An Ace So You Are Already Looking For The Case Ace Pre Flop! The Best Thing For Guys Like Me Is Espn Showing These Tournements. People Dont Understand They Are Generally Watching The Last Table Of A Tourney. Play Is Considerbly Different In The Phase Of A Toureny And Certainly Way Different In A Money Game. Remember 1 Thing No One Tells You, Holdem Takes 5 To 15 Minutes To Learn And A Lifetime To Master:)

For one, the pot odds would then be to great to fold the best starting hand on. Second of all, you should never expect the third A to hit anyway. You should only count on your pair of As to hold up. Your odds of hitting the 3rd A with 2 left in the deck are slim anyway.

You should call because if you win this hand, you can go out and eat dinner, then go to bed with your woman, then come back to the game afterwards. You simply wouldn't have to play a freaking hand for hours if you won that hand with AAs. You would only lose 1.5 blinds every 10 hands. You would just have to have to have a lot of discipline, and you coast into the money.

So, you may get a little short stacked there, but you are still in the money.

[5thStreetPokerParties.com]

Doyle Brunson has said several times:

"The only hand worth going all-in on during the first day of the WSOP is pocket aces."

How can you play them and risk leaving the tournament on the first hand?... But how can you not play them?

I understand the philosophy of wanting to have as much information as possible before making a decision. But, would you make the a different decision on the 50th hand than on the 1st hand?

You may very well be up against KK or QQ or even AA. I don't see anyone going all-in on the first hand with AK. If someone catches a K or Q, then good for them. You could sit there the rest of the tournament without ever seeing that hand again.

If you're afraid of playing with the best hand in fear of someone drawing a better hand then... you shouldn't be playing at all. Because that's the nature of the game.

I've been in a situation on the first hand of a tourney where I had the nut straight after the turn and the guy to the left of me goes all-in, another guy goes all-in, and I decide to call. We all had Ace-high straights. The only card that can come would be a club on the river to make a flush for one of us to win. The club comes on the river and two of us are eliminated. I felt I made the right play and I don't know anyone who could disagree.

[earthslash]

If you're afraid of playing with the best hand in fear of someone drawing a better hand then... you shouldn't be playing at all. Because that's the nature of the game.

For No-Limit Texas Holdem, I have to agree with this. Omaha is a different case, but thats not the topic here. Like someone said earlier, AA vs 3 other players is just above a coin flip. Even less if someone else has AA also. A pro might be able to lay it down in that type of situation, but I don't think I could because it might be my only opportunity to gain that many chips.

[Unregistered]

Early in my young poker career, I had pocket AA in a cash game. A player raised pre flop and I then re raised as I was supposed to do. He called and we saw the flop. He immediatel went all in. Notknowing this player and how he plays, I eventually layed down my AA thinking that maybe he had a set a Q's as a Q came on the flop. Turns out he had nothing and I lost what should have been a no brainer. Found out later he was just a reckless player. After playing many hours of poker I realized that most players that do an all in after the fact are ususally trying to bluff.
By the end of the night I had made up that pot that should have been mine and then another 250.00. Same player, different results. I flopped a boat and and then checked to him after pre flopped raises. I had 7 6 suited. Flop came 7 6 6. He raised all in. I called and he was done for the night.

So to lay down AA in a tourny, yes, depending on the nature of the table and where you are in chip standing and how far off from winning. AA in a cash game pre flop. Headsup , never again. : )

[Unregistered]

Dude

It is the first hand of the WSOP, a player goes all-in with and 3 players call. You figure at least a couple of them have high pairs and ther other player a decent hand. Against 3 other players, AA is a slightly better than 50% favorite (54%). Do you call looking to double up and take the chip lead - knowing you could also bust out on the first hand? or fold knowing that you can double up your stack anyway with less risk - knowing that having the chip lead on the first day means nothing?

[Unregistered]

You have to play them. If you can't risk an all in on pocket Aces then you cant win the WSOP.

If you don't have what it takes to FOLD pocket aces in this situation then you probably don't have what it takes to win the WSOP. Think about it for a second. You are a favorite to win but against that many hands you don't have the huge advantage you think you do. And even if you win so what? You have 40K that will be absolutely meaningless by the third day. Don't make the mistake of trying to win the tournament in the first hand.

[Incidentally I've played aces against 4 all-in opponents pre-flop in a cash game. But in the WSOP you can't just tell yourself it was +EV and pull another 10K out if you lose.]

[Unregistered]

It all comes down to whether you're the type of person who eases into the pool or jumps in headfirst. You can put the odds out there, the earned value, but until you're in this situation, you'll never know. If this happens to me, I see 3 other callers with, in all likelihood, lesser hands. The fact that this is the WSOP is irrelevant. Would you make the call in your local card game? I think more of us would. As many others have said, you're probably looking at AA calling an AK, KK and maybe something like QQ, JJ or AQs or AJs. For most of these guys the higher end straight is shot, leaving flushes and low end straights. I'd still get my money in the pot on this one, just because the advantage for me in terms of chip stack is much more desirable than the odds that I'll be busted out later. For me and my playing style, I take the risk. If I get em cracked, well then so be it. Assuming no one hits a set on the river, my hand is likely to significantly improve due to the high cards being sucked out already. Odds are that at least a Q or J was folded by the other 6 players as well (the other 12 cards that are out of play) leaving the Aces in a dominating position. I say play em. I can also see the argument of laying em down in favor of outplaying the people later (because lets face it, even if one of the weaker hands wins out ... anyone betting a QQ or JJ or AQ or weaker hand with 1 or two other all-ins is likely to be easily outplayed later...that being said...as a rule, I go in with the best of it early and back out when I don't. It's just how I play.

[Unregistered]

Calling in the situation outlined initially is crazy. Do those advocating it know how little those chips they may win are worth? Tournament poker is no different from cash games, in that it requires risks to be taken when there is an overall expectation of profit. However, tourney profit, only comes from finishing in the paid places. Here 50 / 50 chance of going out, only a slight improvement in your chances if you win. YOU HAVE TO FOLD. Early on in tourneys leave all-ins for when you know you're winning the pot.

[Unregistered]

If Three others have gone all in before me, I fold. Its just a pair till the flop. I have seen Pockets get killed so many times it's not funny. Your betting all your chips on a pair and have to see the flop is crazy. You have one out while the others could have Three or Four outs.

[Unregistered]

It all comes down to whether you're the type of person who eases into the pool or jumps in headfirst. You can put the odds out there, the earned value, but until you're in this situation, you'll never know. If this happens to me, I see 3 other callers with, in all likelihood, lesser hands. The fact that this is the WSOP is irrelevant. Would you make the call in your local card game? I think more of us would. As many others have said, you're probably looking at AA calling an AK, KK and maybe something like QQ, JJ or AQs or AJs. For most of these guys the higher end straight is shot, leaving flushes and low end straights. I'd still get my money in the pot on this one, just because the advantage for me in terms of chip stack is much more desirable than the odds that I'll be busted out later. For me and my playing style, I take the risk. If I get em cracked, well then so be it. Assuming no one hits a set on the river, my hand is likely to significantly improve due to the high cards being sucked out already. Odds are that at least a Q or J was folded by the other 6 players as well (the other 12 cards that are out of play) leaving the Aces in a dominating position. I say play em. I can also see the argument of laying em down in favor of outplaying the people later (because lets face it, even if one of the weaker hands wins out ... anyone betting a QQ or JJ or AQ or weaker hand with 1 or two other all-ins is likely to be easily outplayed later...that being said...as a rule, I go in with the best of it early and back out when I don't. It's just how I play.


The problem with that is you assume the others have High Cards, And the lower ones will fold. I have seen this play out to many times to count. Some players will stay in knowing that the high cards are out of the deck, Which gives them a high chance of catching lower ones.

One reason you see gus win so many so Called "Trash Cards" He knows the odds in his favor if the top cards are out of play.

[Unregistered]

I just wanted to add after reading a few of these replies that I know which of you are making me money daily and which of you aren't.

[Locohombre]

Doyle Brunson has said several times:

"The only hand worth going all-in on during the first day of the WSOP is pocket aces."

How can you play them and risk leaving the tournament on the first hand?... But how can you not play them?

I understand the philosophy of wanting to have as much information as possible before making a decision. But, would you make the a different decision on the 50th hand than on the 1st hand?

You may very well be up against KK or QQ or even AA. I don't see anyone going all-in on the first hand with AK. If someone catches a K or Q, then good for them. You could sit there the rest of the tournament without ever seeing that hand again.

If you're afraid of playing with the best hand in fear of someone drawing a better hand then... you shouldn't be playing at all. Because that's the nature of the game.

I've been in a situation on the first hand of a tourney where I had the nut straight after the turn and the guy to the left of me goes all-in, another guy goes all-in, and I decide to call. We all had Ace-high straights. The only card that can come would be a club on the river to make a flush for one of us to win. The club comes on the river and two of us are eliminated. I felt I made the right play and I don't know anyone who could disagree.


This guy knows what he is talking about!

[pg3]

you would HAVE to call with the best starting hand... sometimes in poker you need to gamble

[Sean Gecko]

Its says one player goes all in the three players call.That equals 4 players already all in. Now you wake up with pocket AA its time to decide.

Doyle also says that AA and KK win small pots and lose big pots.

Poker isn't winning hands its making the right decision. If you feel that you can PLAY better then everyone else then I say fold. There is 4 other guys trying to get lucky. It doesn't matter which one does it just means you are gone. 10,000 for one hand.

Now if the table were Pros I would go all in for sure because I wouldn't be sure of my post game flop.

If it were people I don't recognize or can tell they are really bad players I would fold. Knowing I can have a an easy shot to take them out by OUT PLAYING THEM. I have won most of my money by out paying people on the flop.

Gambling is important in poker but you only get paid for the right decisions not how big your ego is becuase you pushed all your chips in on a coin flip due to the fact that there are 4 other players in that hand.
Your not playing against one hand you are playing against 4.

Doyle also says on the first day you shoul just let the pots come easily to you getting in to a hand where you are the under dog is not a good idea.

Lets Look at that again 4 players against one for all of your money 10,000

Or wait a little and take them down later with two pair or a flush.

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem

AsAd -49.72% tie 1.08%
AK cl- 8.31% tie 1.08%
KhKs - 10.59% tie 1.08%
JdJh- 14.37 % tie .35%
QdQs- 15.73% tie .35

Aces are great heads up the problem is they are just a pocket pair which makes them the second worst hand on the rank card (Royal flush to high card)

Well not that this will change anyones minds go push your chips in and I will still probably call because ace are a cruel cock tease.

Be cool
Sean Gecko

[Lottery Larry]

and am a accomplished tournament player.

As far as the Pocket rockets go if there are other callers as tempting as it would be to play you MUST lay them down.....if you are deeper in a tourney and have low chips then ok go for it but in the begining why leave the tournament up to luck? How many times have you had your AA cracked?

I get my Aces cracked as often as the percentages dictate I will. But if you're regularly passing up 3:1 equity on a 1:1 (at worst) chance of winning... I seriously doubt your statement at the beginning.

If you are a good player and do have a overlay on the rest of the field there is no need for me to even tell you what to do...

In large tourney fields your supposed overlay on the other players is so small a percentage, that using it as a justification for this VERY poor strategy decision is indefensible.

[Lottery Larry]

If you don't have what it takes to FOLD pocket aces in this situation then you probably don't have what it takes to win the WSOP.

If you're folding Aces in this situation, you won't ever have to worry about "having what it takes"

[Lottery Larry]

Pocket aces are only 85% preflop when its heads up, against 4 players its like 35% preflop.

I thought it was 35% against 9 other players, not 4. I'll have to look that up later.

[Lottery Larry]

uh, that theory makes perfect sense. sure you're a big leader going into the flop with pocket rockets, but so what? I rarely play any pocket pair all in due to the fact that I really only have :::::TWO::::: outs to improve my hand. Now, when 20 cards are delt preflop, you're telling me that my two outs haven't been compromised? I have 5 cards to make my 2 outs.. the odds of that are not in my favor.

someone with AJ/AQ/KQ even a suited connector has so many damn outs to bust me it's not worth the risk.

2 outs vs 20, which would you rather be?

i've seen aces go down to two pair, straights, and flushes all the time.. pocket rockets are ONLY effective in smaller games. a 10 player tourney will get you some callers, especially if people get married to hands... because we all know that those are the ones that get lucky the most.

This is why poker can still be profitable, when people think like this.

[Ace Mahoney]

With pocket Aces the odds are more against you the more players that are in. Thats why you raise big to try and thim the table. Your odds are better the less players in the hand. Personally I don't think very many people would fold pocket aces preflop. your ahead going in and you will beat any other one pair hand. But I guess it depends on the player.

[Lottery Larry]

With pocket Aces the odds are more against you the more players that are in. Thats why you raise big to try and thim the table. Your odds are better the less players in the hand. Personally I don't think very many people would fold pocket aces preflop. your ahead going in and you will beat any other one pair hand. But I guess it depends on the player.

...sigh. This is not that important, long-term.

[Ace Mahoney]

...sigh. This is not that important, long-term.

Why are you sighing? And what do you deem not important? This is a good topic though.

[Lottery Larry]

Why are you sighing? And what do you deem not important? This is a good topic though.

First part, because you're repeating the same bad logic that others already used.

Second, see the bolded parts in my previous reply.

[Ace Mahoney]

Well first off I replied without reading every post in thread. Maybe I should have. And why is it bad logic just because you disagree with it? We all have opinions and views on things. Its not right or bad just because you say it is. I don't see how you could not call with rockets. unless like 6 others do ahead of you. BUt slim chane in that.

[Lottery Larry]

Well first off I replied without reading every post in thread. Maybe I should have. And why is it bad logic just because you disagree with it? We all have opinions and views on things. Its not right or bad just because you say it is. I don't see how you could not call with rockets. unless like 6 others do ahead of you. BUt slim chane in that.


To be clear- I have said before, and again in this thread, that you should be happy to call all-in preflop with Aces, on the first hand of the WSOP, no matter how many people are in.

If you pushed preflop on the first hand of the WSOP with Aces, you should want as many callers as possible.

It is not "logical" imo to think anyone can outplay enough players, in such a large field, that anyone can afford to throw away the pot odds overlay that they are getting, when they are at worst less than a 2:1 dog (if I remember my "Aces vs. 9 other hands" odds correctly).

Therefore, if you are not willing to get it all-in preflop, risking elimination, with a huge edge in equity.... you have no real chance in any big tournament.

If anyone wants to call this my opinion only, so be it.

[Ace Mahoney]

To be clear- I have said before, and again in this thread, that you should be happy to call all-in preflop with Aces, on the first hand of the WSOP, no matter how many people are in.

If you pushed preflop on the first hand of the WSOP with Aces, you should want as many callers as possible.

It is not "logical" imo to think anyone can outplay enough players, in such a large field, that anyone can afford to throw away the pot odds overlay that they are getting, when they are at worst less than a 2:1 dog (if I remember my "Aces vs. 9 other hands" odds correctly).

Therefore, if you are not willing to get it all-in preflop, risking elimination, with a huge edge in equity.... you have no real chance in any big tournament.

If anyone wants to call this my opinion only, so be it.
I agree

[HPG ADMIN]

[quote=Lottery Larry;209616]If you pushed preflop on the first hand of the WSOP with Aces, you should want as many callers as possible./quote]

Although I don't particularly disagree. I would think that successful tourney players balance equity vs. staying alive. Although you would have a good chance at going from T10,000 to T100,000, there is also the fact that the chip leader on Day 1 has never won the tournament (I believe). I believe big chip leads in the middle and late end of the tournament are big advantages which allow you to run over other players. But a big chip lead early in the tournament doesn't seem to mean much.

In other words, should you look at the risk-adjusted equity (similar to stocks)? What if a good player feels that he could get up to T100,000 without taking that much risk? Could the answer therefore be . . .

- if a player is a +EV player than he should weigh the risk of elimination vs the odds of building up his stake otherwise

- if a player is a -EV player then he should take any positive equity opportunitity he is given

[Lottery Larry]

Lottery Larry;209616]If you pushed preflop on the first hand of the WSOP with Aces, you should want as many callers as possible.

Although I don't particularly disagree. I would think that successful tourney players balance equity vs. staying alive. Although you would have a good chance at going from T10,000 to T100,000, there is also the fact that the chip leader on Day 1 has never won the tournament (I believe). I believe big chip leads in the middle and late end of the tournament are big advantages which allow you to run over other players. But a big chip lead early in the tournament doesn't seem to mean much.

That doesn't mean much. I don't think you can argue that starting with 100k in chips is better than 10k, regardless of how you do later.

That assumes, of course, that one can properly play a big stack, early in the WSOP


In other words, should you look at the risk-adjusted equity (similar to stocks)? What if a good player feels that he could get up to T100,000 without taking that much risk? Could the answer therefore be . . .

- if a player is a +EV player than he should weigh the risk of elimination vs the odds of building up his stake otherwise

- if a player is a -EV player then he should take any positive equity opportunitity he is given

I don't think, imo, that even the best players can ignore the equity value on the presumption that they can do as well later. I say this simply because Phil Ivey has to beat 5500+ in order to even make the money. Therefore, the chance of any player doing so successfully is now so low/unpredictable that you simply cannot afford to pass up so much equity early..... and one could argue that even in the middle rounds, the same thing could be said.

In short, even a +EV player is so -playing EV lifetime (in regards to getting to the last few tables), that their edge won't be able to overcome the random playing odds enough to justify throwing away Aces against several all-in players preflop.


As for 9 all-in players:
I don't have access to a NL simulator that includes betting, so I used Turbo Texas Hold'em for some limit betting simulations.

AA vs 9 random hands (no bet, no fold) was 33%. Against a betting lineup, however, pocket Aces won two-thirds of the time.

AcAd vs. the worse hand distribution I could think of quickly (worst for the Aces, without giving someone else Aces) was the following:

JJ Tc9c 4d4h AsKs Ah3s 3c3d 8h7d 9s8s KdQd

Running that hand distribution, Aces only won 11.5% of the time nofold'em.... but won 60% of the time against the betting lineup.

Of course, I don't think any of us could imagine players so bad that would call all-in on the first hand with 87o, A3o and threes... but to do a lineup of JJ KK QQ TT 99 KK QQ JT AK is both less likely to occur and probably better for the Aces anyway.


I can't think of any hand mix that would get 9 people to call all-in preflop ahead of your Aces, so this is a pointless argument anyway. If it would somehow happen, then based on the 11-15% range of chance of winning, I could advocate folding Aces if you were a top pro.

However, since at most you'd face 3-4 players all-in, I'll try to run that type of simulation some time and see what numbers I get.

Okay, I ran a no fold simulation with Aces vs four hands (KK, QQ, JJ, TT). The Aces won almost 39% of the time, or odds of 1.56:1. For that, you'd get pot odds of 4:1