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FlyingSafe 03-03-08 01:22 PM

I play a lot at FTP, and I also feel that the hands that are 25% to win preflop, have a much higher winning percentage when going allin preflop. I wonder if anyone has software to tabulate hand results over a big sample and determine if the site is doing something wrong. I don't know what motive they would have to skew the odds as that would be easy to detect if someone had the time to go through thousands of hand histories and verify if the results are close. I guess they could be trying to move money from one group of players to another. Perhaps USA players are more likely to remove their money from the site because of legislation. That might be incentive to move money from them to other players. Or perhaps it brings more players in to reward new players. I really don't know, but would sure like to hear from people who have studied huge samples of hands to see if the suck-out percentage is plausible. A good place to start would be to just count all the Ax allin preflop against another Ax, and see how often the best hand wins. I think over a thousand such hands would have to be tabulated to get a usable sample though.

thematt 03-03-08 08:50 PM

ok so i have been paying attention the last 3 days to hands and everything and listen to this!! i have been able to predict whats going to happen almost 3 out of 4 times i do it that is horrible that i can tell when there going to hit something to take someone out.. also i noticed who ever is big stack early on n a tourny is screwed they will lose// and today i played 3 tournys in a row lost first withh AA preflop/ second with KK wow/ third with AK aginst J8 lol wouldnt you know it that is ridiculous

KobraPatrol 03-08-08 06:40 PM

This site is sor rigged and dont even bother. I too could predict what will outcome be some 50% of the time, not precise but will the best hand on the flop get screwed on turn and river and with what. I made it up $100 playing like that and then they put me on "Missed flop" routine. Here is how it goes, I get A-A, and if i do hit A on the flop it is couple with straight and flush draw, ofcourse there is ALWAYS 2 guys which have straight and ofcourse they are allin on the flop. Other thing is that i get A-Ks then it comes A-Ks on the flop guess what other guy is holding, and yes if i dont get screwed by straight i get screwed by flush. TOO MANY flushes lose vs. set on flop, straights lose against flushes on river, and dont be surprised if youre K-K or A-A full house lose hand to quads. RAKE is plain robbery, they take 10% of it, at least at low limits. Havent played at higher limits, someone mentioned 20%. SUPPORT is something about everyone is certain to exist but noone saw it. And if you do get some response (after couple of days) it is something like this "We are momentarily busy resolving something else so and your issue need longer time to be resolved and please be patient" after youre patient more than enough then (1 week) they answer that "They are sorry and that it will be resolved soon, and 3-4 days after complaint you receive answer which actually doesnt tell you anything. "We assure you that everything is OK." ANOTHER THING recent disconections which occured at Full Tilt when lots of players was screwed, I have looked at Hand History (2 of them) to see how did the hand ended because entire table got disconnected and ofcourse nothing but at least it was the hand i played there were statements that i got disconnected. After emailing support about this, same procedure everytime, i get those hands histories after some 12 days. I look at them and it is stated that i folded that hand because of timeout not disconnection mentioned. NOW im searching through hand histories on my HDD and gues what THEY ERASED THOSE HANDS FROM MY HAND HISTORIES. Nothing completely gone even the hands that were played after. Another interesting thing is that most of people playing there thinks that Howard Lederer started and is the owner of Full Tilt Poker, NOT TRUE, H. Lederer only helped design it. Owner of FTP is "Kolyma corporation AVV", Google for Kolyma term and youll find it funny in some sick sort of the way that we are actually in Kolyma, at least they are treating us like we are.

stevethe4th 03-11-08 02:04 AM

Please Read!! Very Interesting..let Me Know Your Experiences
 
EVERYONE READ THIS +++ PAGE ONE OF TWO+++
SEE MY OTHER POST AS WELL..apparently I write too much and needed two posts to write everything I would like to know what you think, so please feel free to write me
.................................................. .................................................. ...
Okay I have really tried to be patient and avoid the rigged talk about Full Tilt, figuring 'oh that's just poker'.....however, I decided to start keeping track of situations where the odds just are not RIGHT!!

Take the time to read this; the first part is a brief background about my playing experience, then a part about the business of online poker, and finally my trial regarding the odds not being correct on FUll TILT.

Playing Experience: a lot of live poker for years now. Also, online at Full Tilt and PokerStars. I have played in thousands of online tourneys..mainly sit-and gos..from 9-45 people..All totaling about 40,000 hands online.

The Business of Poker: This is very straight forwarded. It is all to make more money. How do you do that? 1.) Get more players. 2.) Offer more games. 3.) Use fast moving blinds..in particular turbos. The very simple logic here is items 1..2...and 3 all = more buy ins = more money for the site.

Now, let's imagine this for a while.

How else could you make more money if you owned a poker website?

Easy answer: Keep the action moving. How do you do that? Artificially increase the rank of hands dealt, and or the frequency with which they are dealt.

MY TRIAL:

So here is my trial. I decided to keep track of one very specific situation that comes up all the time in online poker...THE ALL IN SHOVE CONTESTS!!

Here is why I chose to track this data:
1.) It is very easy to calculate the true odds.
2.) It is very easy to calculate the outcome.
3.) Items 1-2 make it very easy to calculate the % at the end.
4.) Easy to keep track of cause it is almost always two people all in (simplifies the math too)
5.) This is where the game can be 'artificially' sped up, and thus offers the window of opportunity if indeed a website does want to RIG THINGS!

So, I set out to track every all in hand that I played, and compare the results to what the mathematical probabilites should be. As you can imagine if you are even GOOGLING for this forum....the results did not look good for FULL TILT!!

Here is what I found in a nut shell:

When I was a favorite 80-20%
I only won about 62%
-18% differential

When I was a favorite 70-30%
I only won about 58%
-12% differential

When I was a 60-40% favorite
I only won about 52%
-8% differential

When I was a 55-45% favorite
I only won about 48%
-7% differential

Finally, in the so called 50-50 coin flips
I only won about 42%
-8% differential

By the way, my study was over hundreds of these ALL IN situations, making it statistically viable.

Conclusions:

1.) I must have really bad luck......??(However, think about this: for me to have bad luck..that means some other players must have good luck..more on this in my next post)

2.) Something else to think about: I do not ever recall once over any period of time 'defying' the odds. By that I mean winning more than I should...ANYONE????

3.) No matter how good of a player you are, there is no way to turn a GOOD profit when the odds aren't correct. (Please note: I actually do turn a profit..about 17% ROI which is considered good) I do believe though if the average player has the same reported odds differential that I do, you will LOSE MONEY!!

++++++I am running out of room here so please see my next post++++++++++

stevethe4th 03-11-08 02:20 AM

Part Two+++++
 
++++++This is page two of my post++++

Be sure to read the previous post first!!

Closing Thoughts………………..

Some things to think about; First, my study indicates that I do not win as many of these situations as I should. For this to be the case, and for all of us that lose more than we should, that means other players are winning more than they should……RIGHT??
If that is the case, DOES ANYONE WANT TO ADMIT that they win more….IE….they deliver more bad beats then they take??? I always here people complaining they lose more, but I have NEVER once heard a player admit that they give more bad beats than they take....yet mathematically there have to be some players that do give more bad beats than they take……

Some people have mentioned to me that my study is not taking into account how many times you win those situations when there isn’t an ALL IN SHOWDOWN. Well, that is easy to address. If the opponent doesn’t call, you win 100% of the time. To be serious, my study only analyzed the ALL IN situations because those results can be accurately tabulated, and it would make sense that if there was going to be unethical practices….this would be a good indicator of it. Also, I analyzed literally hundreds of hands in each instance, so it is statistically a good representation of the LONG RUN in poker.

That’s all for now, please let me know what your experiences and thoughts are.

Thanks, and GOOD LUCK!!
Steve T>

sparris 03-12-08 12:20 AM

full tilt sh*t
 
to steve the 4th and others, at first i thought i was just paranoid but i began to collect the details of all-in bets. i have no doubt that full tilt handicaps the weaker hand to keeps the masses engaged. if the cards behaved correctly 70 percent of their customer base would disappear. i collect 8, 10 12, or more bad beats on a weekend. it' crazy. i suspect there is no oversight. they can do what they want. i really enjoy the game. i have no dillusions regarding fame and fortune but full tilt is definitely rigged. i am not a pro but i know the difference between a bad play and losing to irregular card dynamics. if anyone has any confidence with any on line site i would like to hear it.

gmoney8400 03-12-08 10:18 AM

As the days pass I'm believing more and more that fulltilt is rigged. I had recently put $100 into my account and doubled it to $220. I then withrdrew my initial $100 and then I lost everything. I'm no pro, but everycoin flip went against me along with bad beats galore. Anyway, does anyone else notice a relation between account size and bad beats?

akim29 03-13-08 07:13 PM

so when i first deposited, i made about 200 bucks. cashed out and left 100 in there. i started losing my bankroll on some crazy rivers but i thought, well, that's poker for ya. was up on chips 18k to 6k in a sit and go. had pocket aces and took him all in with A2. flop comes AA2, turn 2, river 2. next hand, pocket 88 against J10. decided to just check it. flop comes 6,7,8. wow trip 8s. i go all in just to avoid anything dumb happening. he calls and wouldn't you know, a 9 comes on the river completing his straight. these are just the ones that are fresh in my mind, but it's been happening all fuckin week. i really do feel like i'm being set up when i get a good hand. so set up that i looked up full tilt rigged on google and found this site. CRAZY!!!!!

rmil 03-16-08 10:08 PM

akim u need to check your post, specifically the first hand you mention. I see 5 aces :).

softblushcom 03-21-08 06:22 AM

OK, I just found this site by typing "Full Tilt Rigged" into Google. And why would I do that?---->I'm glad you asked, and I'm going to tell you. But first, to stevethe4th and sparris, to name a few, THANK YOU. Thank you for helping reassure myself I'm not crazy.
I'll try and keep this short, but I'm PO-ed at Fullt Tilt, so here's the deal.
First, I've been playing online for over three years (Pokerroom, Pokerstars, FullTilt), as well as live in Atlantic City (Borgata, baby!). I've placed online, I've made final tables, I even got into a couple of WPT events (missed the money there). The point is, I don't suck at poker. I'm not a pro, but I know how to play in large tournys and at one table sit-n-gos, and I am COMPLETELY CONVINVED THAT FULL TILT is rigged. I liked stevethe4th's format on his post, so part two will be my thoughts on the business of poker, then part three what Full Tilt is up to.

softblushcom 03-21-08 06:31 AM

OK. The business of online poker. Steve has it right, for the most part, but misses two important points. First,...Steve....you know how you were pointing out allllll the people that gripe about bad beats, but nobody brags about being the bad beat-er? Well, ever think that some (or most) of those bad beaters are Full Tilt employees or pokerbots that they employ? (And before you all start saying "no way"!!,....prove from what we all know that neither is the case,...and remember that a lack of proof that something doesn't exist isn't proof.)
I'm going to take you on your words for the stats. While I didn't personally chart my online stats with Full Tilt, your numbers feel right, if you'll allow me the liberty of agreeing on a gut feeling, so to speak. (I've got a college level math and engineering background, I know stats, and yes, the play on the site DOES feel like it backs up your numbers, about 15% off from what would fall from a real (honest) deck of cards.
The other business point: How do these sites make their money? From the rake, or the tourny fees (when you play a $10+1 tourny, they get that $1). So, it's in their interest to slide the money back and forth: to let you win $100, then lose it,...then win it again. Because every time you get into a tourny or play at a table, they get a piece. And if you win a bunch, then lose a lot, then win a bunch, they just keep taking their little piece. Add to that this interesting point: it's in their best interests to let the idiots win. Because they're the ones throwing around more cash. The more they let some mulehole suckout on a good player, the MORE OF THAT GOOD PLAYER'S MONEY the mulehole pays out in the long run. (Sorry, mulehole=donkey=things I shall not say in a nice place like this.) So, yes, it's in a poker site's interests to do exactly what you all notice: let you win about as much as you pay in, then suck it right back out from you.
Amazing, ain't it?

softblushcom 03-21-08 06:39 AM

OK. What have I seen? Exactly what I was eluding to at the end of Part 2. Say I put $50 on the site. Over the course of a month I'll play a bunch of under $10 tournys, or some sit-n-gos. I'll hit the money light, I'll miss it, over and over, but the bottom line is that MY bottom line gets lower. Then, when I'm down to my last $10, I'll hit for about $50-100. Then I'll get $70-$80 of RIDICULOUS bad beats in a row. Tonight, I pushed with JJ (and I pushed 5xBB from the cutoff, unopened) and the BB called with A7 off....and caught QUAD 7's!!! I mean, are they for real? Last month, after I won a $3 KO Tourny ($72) I saw things like boat over boat, QQ losing to 23 (he caught a straight flush on the flop) and KK losing to 89 when 998 fell, just to name a few, and there were more than a couple of ONE OUTTERS that went against me.
For those of you that are going to say "that's poker", look down at my first part of this posting. I'm not a poker rookie. I'm not a pro. ButI'm not a {complete) idiot, either. I know how to push, how to squeezeplay, and when to lay down when the board gets nasty. I'm talking about going in with the best hand, and having someone stay with junk that hits in an incredibly, STATISTICALLY IMPROBABLE way, time after time until EVERY DIME I WON IS TAKEN BACK.
OK. I've vented. Some of you are nodding your heads. Some of you are laughing. Fair enough. But I'm agreeing with you guys that posted here: Full Tilt is rigged. And even though I don't have solid proof (e.g. the deal software,....not the random number generator, because that doesn't mean a thing,...the DEAL SOFTWARE is what someone needs to check out---ALL IT WOULD TAKE IS A VARIABLE THAT THEIR WEEKLY "software updates" MODIFY, TO CHANGE YOU FROM A SUCK-OUT-ER TO A SUCKED-OUT-ON-ER), I hope the anecdotal (<--sp?) evidence at least gets you thinging...and being wary. PEACE, GOOD LUCK AT THE TABLES, AND DON'T LET FULL TILT GET ALL YOUR $$$$.

nitemare6 03-23-08 09:05 PM

I don't care about 32 beating Qs etc. if someone makes a call figuring IF he hits you have high cards and his hand is disguised. What bothers me is like the hand that occurred about an hour ago, to-wit: I5th hand at a low limit table - dealt QJ and I call a limp 2x BB raise in late position. Flop comes QJ4. I call the bet and turn comes A. Ok. I know it is "possible she now has a pair of aces and the other board card (4) paired her, i.e. she has As and 4s. AND it is "possible she has a set of 4s. SO I decide to do what I rarely do - push all in since she has a small chip stack. I have her covered. She calls and shows trip As. Now what bothers me is this (for those who always defend this crap) The ONLY card that could beat me on the turn was an Ace. This is a TWO OUTER card! Remember she raised only 2x BB in middle pos. Maybe she is conservative or wanted to "slow play" her starting hand of As. Now IF this happened once in a while so that you just felt like "well that is poker anything can happen if you play enough hands" OK! I would not bitch. But this is a pattern on FTP. Over and over again this inexplicable dealing occurs. it is getting impossible to believe they don't juice the RNG in some way only a programmer with high technical background and training can understand.

After all the bigger the hands and the more high cards the more donks will play and the bigger pots will generate more rakes.

It's real simple to see what the motive to cheat would be IF that is what is happening on FTP!

nitemare6 03-23-08 09:16 PM

Ok, I know. A 4 on the turn could have beat me also!

babolat2 03-24-08 07:47 PM

i want to thank all of you for posting your views on whether or not internet poker is rigged. i too now feel less crazy. at first i reasoned that it was just bad luck, however it was the persistance of the bad beats that have convinced me of my suspicions. i am sure that if i conducted similar experiments such as stevethe4th i would find similar conclusions. i am fairly confident that it would stand the test of scrutiny. however one thing has perplexed me. even though most of us here are not to be described as "noobies" i doubt that any of us sit down with an excess of $20,000 like i have seen some players do. it is logical that someone who is willing to sit down with tens of thousands of dollars will know EVERYTHING that goes on in the world of internet. those high rollers are obviously professionals and obviously know everyone involved if they are willing to sit down at the tables with that kind of money. so my question that i would like to ask all of you is that even though it is at the very least extremely suspicious that internet poker is rigged that why would someone who obviously knows much more than we do sit down at a table with $20,000 if there are rumors circulating? why would he risk that much money on a rigged site? remember that i am not trying to defend internet poker not being rigged i am just wondering how could this be. a theory of mine that might explain this is that perhaps once you get to a certain level of "high stakes" perhaps the casino will finally take the game seriously? since that 90% of the players are sitting down with less than $1000 maybe this could explain the high rollers having faith? probably not but it is something to think about. PLEASE EVERYBODY TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT THIS.... I WOULD LOVE TO HEAR YOUR OPINIONS

superman 03-25-08 04:20 PM

So I am not crazy. LOL. For awhile I used to think that because we saw so many hands playing online, that of course we would see more bad beats. But then you begin to wonder, WTF? We've all experienced crap calls and one outters in tournaments. But does it make sense for Tilt to rig games? Why tarnish their reputation? Yeh, they would save money if they never paid out on 120K tourneys. But why would they rig the games? They take a decent rake - pretty much the same as live casinos w/o the overhead. It doesn't make any sense for them to rig the site. So how can you explain all the bad beats? First of all - RANDOM CARD GENERATOR MY ASS. Secondly, no one checks their coding, they can program whatever the hell they want. I'm sure they have a "Suck Out" function cranked up to 90%. I've played live in every casino in Vegas as well as a handful in the LA area. I fair much better live than online - I play the cards. I have never ever seen as bad beats on live as on Tilt. I have a network of friends who are all gambling "junkies" - over 250 strong. None of them have ever won a major tourney online with Tilt. A few have won on Bodog - I'm talking $120K to first place. If you look at the most profitable player rankings and their sites, Tilt players are very seldom top ten. So does Tilt rig their site or use bots? Probably not. I don't think that they would risk their reputation or profits. So the only conclusion is that there is a flaw in the programming for the card generators. Flaw? Or intentional? Undoubtedly, the code is generated by some outfit probably in India - a bunch of rancid fellows sitting around and laughing at us dumb Americans who continue to throw money away. So screw Tilt. I'm going to take up fly fishing.

This is interesting regarding the effect of RNG's on security: [url]http://ultimatebet.com/support/random-number-generator[/url]

kdanwill 03-31-08 09:01 PM

These may just be my paranoid ramblings, but here they are. FTP would not benefit from any abnormal programming at their normal tables since they receive a profit from every hand played. However, an abnormality in the code of MTTs serves the purpose of eliminating some of the server traffic and also does not cut into the profits since the rake is taken prior to the tournament. Anybody who has played in a cash MTT has certainly had to notice some irregularities based on the size of chip stacks. Larger chip stacks consistently hit seemingly impossible draws. I'm not talking AK vs 88 or any other coin flip situation. Here's an example: Shorter stack flops a nut flush and the larger stack flops top pair. Large stack then proceeds to suck out a boat. You can chalk a few of these up to coincidence, but seeing 5-6 hands every tournament just at your table with similar odds and outcomes tends to raise some suspicion. Let's just say the larger stack is a 15% chance (that's being generous) to win at whatever point they go all in. That is 1:6.67 odds of sucking out. If this occurs only ten times during a tournament, it places the odds of those hands hitting at 1:174284329. In other words, that’s one to 174 million. I don't know about you guys, but I have never playing in a tournament with 174 million hands dealt. Obviously a claim like this would have to be examined over hundreds of thousands of hands, something I lack both the time and patience to complete. I consider poker to be 10% perspiration, 10% education, and 80% frustration, but I'm getting rather tired of playing tight, sound poker and regularly losing to inferior hands due to noticeably improbable draws. Hell, it’s gotten to the point that I can call my girlfriend into the room and say, “Hey honey, watch this, an eight is coming on the river.” Also, there is a phenomenon that I refer to as the “Magical River Card” that makes a hand for everybody at the table. I won’t get into it now though. Have fun playing and try not to pull all your hair out.

Docholiday 04-03-08 01:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AmericanDrifter (Post 209475)
You people are all paranoid. Full Tilt is no different than any other site. Over the last few years I have played at Bodog, Pokerstarts, UltimateBet, and Full Tilt. The one thing they all have in common is players who say "this site is so rigged" or "this is the most rigged site". The fact is that bad beats happen and they are far more memorable than favored hands holding. While a collection of antedotal observations about bad calls being paid off can create the illusion of a scam, it should not be considered statistical proof. Over a period of time, the cream rise to the top. The best players win over time, not because the site is rigged, but because they make the right decisions. Bad beats are frustrating, but getting your chips in the middle with the best is the only way to win.

I repeatedly thought i was paranoid, thas y i jus went back to ftp. Again and again, the same happens. I have played profitably on all sites on most stakes and against a range of abilitys....except ftp where im down $800. Ive recorded profits over 150 $2 hu tournys and ended up breaking even. I DONT BREAK EVEN!! Had my money 90% of the time in great spots only to be outdrawn nearly 1/2 the time. I know im not paranoid, maybe seriously unlucky on one of the seven sites i use but ive seen enough to know not to go back there. Ive signed up to poker stars playin $2 tournys about 6 hrs ago and im up $20 , thas $20 more than i earned in 3 DAYS on ftp

super chris 04-04-08 01:35 PM

Obviously i think any1 who is reading this feels full tilt is rigged or otherwise u wouldnt have found this site. For those who think that full tilt isnt rigged than u havent played for months or u havent cashed out yet. When i first deposited my 50$, in a month in a half i raised it to about 1150 and then i cashed out 650. I immediately lost my remaining banroll and havent been over 200 since. Sure ive lost due to my play some but far more times i go out of a tourney w/ aces losing to 7 5 or 8 6 w/ straights on the flop. When i see aces i honestly feel im going 2 exit the tourney or lose and that just isnt realistic in live games. Now we all want to think were just running bad or maybe that was just a bad beat but after 5 months of it i highly doubt it. I had k's in a 24+1 tourney last week already in the money in about 14th of 177th place. I call to a pre-flop raise hoping to trap. The flop comes 7 8 k and i flop trips. I had been bluffing all night and people began to pick up on it. So the raiser bets pot and i raise and hes re-raises me all-in and i call. He show 10's to my k's. His only out was runner runner 10 or 9 6 about 1% odds. Sure enough a 9 6 comes off the board and these miracle outs happen constantly. Another one of my concerns is that there normally seems to b one player who is getting all the luck and all the cards. As if full tilt chose him to go to the final table and possibly win. I have more but the bottom line is that full tilt is not a great internet poker site.

selani123 04-10-08 02:02 AM

Help!! I opend an account and over a period of 3 weeks deposited $750. Well I kept getting run down in live hands and busting out on the bubble in tourneys. I was down to $50 left and finally had a good run one night and ended up with $650.00. I requested a withdraw back to my bank account and it was denied without a reason. I made a request again and did this 5 times. Each time it took over 2 days for them to respond and they continually denied my requests without a reason. Finally after threatening e-mails they got back to me and told me that my account had been closed and my monies were seized. Apparently they never closed my old account from 2006. The last time I used it was in July of 2006 and I requested in August that it be closed. Their response was that they don't allow multiple accounts, which I understand, but I didn't think I had one. And furthermore, why did they not notice anything when I made over 10 deposits in the last three weeks to my new account. They never refused to accept my deposits, but the minute I wanted to withdraw there was a problem. In their email to me they stated that I could transfer my money to my primary (old) account and play there, but they haven't done it. I made the request over 3 days ago and no one has responded. My money is still out there and I don't know what to do next. Has anyone had a problem like this in the past? I will do everything in my power, including legal action to hold them accountable. They shouldn't be able to do this to hard-working, honest people.

Cisco_Tajuara 04-21-08 09:08 PM

Well, off course there are bad beats everywhere, and that's a fact, but what happens in full tilt is too much, I saw my aces cracked, even when they were three, two on my hand and one on the board, and I also noticed that when the tournaments are close to the final table the software eliminate the short stacks little by little, in one single tournament I lost with donkey calls, I had AJ of spades and some stupid call me with A4 off suited and beats me, then I had AK of diamonds and somebody beats me with A8 off suited again, and this happen several times, we start with a bankroll of 50, and after 2 weeks playing very tight and very patient we built a bankroll of almost 450, but then we start to lose, and all bad beats, all the time, we saw pur KK cracked by A8 or even worst by 3 7 off suited, why this happen??, some other time (this is worst) I had 8 9 of hearts, so I call the blind and the flop shows 6 7 and 10, so the guy in my side went all in with 10 9, and guess what, the turn shows and 9 and the river shows a 9 as well, he made full house and I was out of the tournament, that was really sick and we always lose against the chip leaders so the software can send the nine players to the final table, I mean I just lost a couple of bucks, and I think is ok because I'm playing live poker now which is better, but the thing is that when things like that happen to you sometimes you are afraid to gamble, in conclusion, I think full tilt is rigged, not all the time, but sometimes can make anything that is possible for eliminate you from a tournament in order to go to the final tables

mrkromer 04-23-08 07:28 PM

Tough decision
 
My bankroll story, and I know there are a LOT of them on here about FT:

I deposited $100 into full tilt after bankrupting at poker stars, lost about $400 there after winning a $2200 tournament and cashing out $1400 of it.

So I turn the $100 into $300 FAST, then gradually I get up over $500, all at cash games. All of the sudden, I'm getting disconnected from the server 2-3 times per hour and missing out on great opportunities to rake big pots. Then my trips and straights start getting flushes drawn on them, within 2 weeks I'm flat broke! Same stakes, same strategy, same environment, but huge turnaround. I've been told that if you use good bankroll management, you should not go broke if you play solid, FT doesn't support that theory. I say play live, I win much more live but just don't have the resources where I live to do it often, sucks.

Mike

jessanders 04-26-08 07:13 PM

Ok... Honestly... I've lost money playing online, quite a bit, when I am a consistent winner in $50-$500 live buy-in tournaments and $.25,$.50-$2,$5 cash games, but is that because online poker is rigged?
I've analysed this an awful lot through my own play, hand histories, as well as those of a few of my friends, and I have noticed 4 major differences between online play on ALL websites I've analysed (FTP being one of them) versus live play:
1. People play more hands for more money online than they do in live play.
2. People call with weaker hands on the flop/turn/river in case you are bluffing more often.
3. The average bet in online games is the pot, where in most live games people bet between the minimum bet to 2/3 the pot more often.
4. People semi-bluff and straight out bluff with hands they normally wouldn't.

To explain.
1. You see people limp in a lot in both online and live play. The difference between online play and live play is that people get crazy for some reason.
In live play, people will limp with Q-Jo under the gun, but if there is a raise and a re-raise, most of the time they will fold. Online, this seems to be a calling situation far more frequently, meaning that more hands make it to the flop more often, which means there are more suckouts.

2. People may call a big raise in live play with 8-9s in position preflop, but if the flop is 2-9-A rainbow, they will usually either call the bet on the flop or fold. Online, they seem to raise a lot more in this situation.
This leads, again, to people getting "pot-committed" (I put in quotes because they really aren't, but they get it in their mind that they are), and staying with a hand to the river they normally wouldn't.
This applies to little pocket-pairs on a ragged board.
You're pretty likely to fold 5-5 if someone under the gun raised, you called, the flop comes out 2-6-8, they bet, you raise, they push all-in. In a live game, this is usually an easy fold (again, not always going to fold here, not always correct, but sometimes). Online, people call in this situation far more often.

3. People re-raise, raise and call to bluff on later streets in all forms of poker in both online and live poker, but the likelihood that a person is semi-bluffing online is far greater than in live games. If you are a consistent winner in live games, but a consistent loser in online games, track how often you raise as a semi-bluff, or even as a straight bluff, in both live and online games. You'll find that you're doing it more online.

4. This ties into 3 a lot too. If you semi-bluff raise on the flop when your opponent bets 1/2 the pot (an average continuation bet out of position in live play), and you raise 3x that bet (an average raise in live play), you put in 1 and 1/2 the original pot to win 1 and 1/2 the original pot. Even if he does call, the original pot is only swelling to 3x it's size (the original, 1/2 [his bet], 1 and 1/2 [your raise], 1 [his call]).
This leads to the average pot, post flop, assuming all average bets/raises (3x the big blind preflop, both blinds folding) at between 14 and 16 big blinds.
Online, raise the pot preflop (assuming no limpers), 3.5x the big blind. You call, there is 8.5 BB's in the pot preflop (as opposed to the 7.5 in live play).
He bets the pot (8.5), you re-raise the pot (there are 17 big blinds in with is bet and yours preflop and his bet on the flop, you call 8.5 bringing it to 25.5, and raise 25.5 more, bringing the total pot to 51 bb's as you semi-bluff).
Where does this leave you?
If you are playing an average stack of 100x the big blind, in live play, you've committed approximately 1/6 of your stack, where as online, you've committed over 1/4, and you've almost pot committed yourself.
This leads to bigger pots and more bad beats.
So, when you say online poker is rigged, first analyze the extraneous factors that could lead to this being a thought before accusing the sites of having more bad beats.
And by the way, Aces against an average hand all-in is only about a 75% favorite. However, aces get all-in and called online much more often, and therefore they lose more often.
And the odds of someone having Aces when you have Kings, 24-1, so roughly 4%. This happens much more often online because, well, you see on average about 3x the hands.

nitemare6 04-28-08 02:03 PM

there is NO DOUBT that full tilt poker is run by a bunch of cheats and that it is rigged. Ther is NO doubt about htis except what you want to rationalize away with all the propaganda they feed you. Do you really think poker is an honest game online! Do you not read the paper and look at all the corruption in the US and the World! Someday we will all see an expose about these scumbags and how they had players who were their shills designed to win them money or how they pre-program hands and tournies to benefit them. It will all come out some day. Tell me does anyone - i repeat ANYONE -- really know who runs Full Tilt or who programs their RNG. Look at the charlatan "gaming commission" who "certifies" their RNG! GIVE ME A BREAK! Why don't they have audits of their dealing system by reputable firms??! These are crooks; and maybe worse than that..... maybe they are connected... if you know what I mean! Goodbye to bad rubbish on Full Tilt! Find live games guys! Then if you get bad beats with an honest deal you can chalk it up to real poker and learn. You can't learn squat on Full Tilt except to be a MIND READER and know you should lay down a set of jacks because some donk is going to get 3-4 runners to beat you....... time and again like I have had happen! There are some hands you cannot and should not lay down. Full Tilt EXPLOITS this poker principle with good players to STEAL our monies via rakes and other means! I am sure of this NOW!! This isn't real poker. This is rigged poker!! Full RIGGED Tilt poker !!!

nitemare6 04-28-08 02:28 PM

there is NO DOUBT that full tilt poker is run by a bunch of cheats and that it is rigged. There is NO doubt about this except what you want to rationalize away with all the propaganda they feed you. Do you really think poker is an honest game online! Do you not read the paper and look at all the corruption in the US and the World! Someday we will all see an expose about these scumbags and how they had players who were their shills designed to win them money or how they pre-program hands and tournies to benefit them. It will all come out some day. Tell me does anyone - i repeat ANYONE -- really know who runs Full Tilt or who programs their RNG. Look at the charlatan "gaming commission" who "certifies" their RNG! GIVE ME A BREAK! Why don't they have AND PUBLISH audits of their dealing system by reputable firms??! These are crooks; and maybe worse than that..... maybe they are connected... if you know what I mean! Goodbye to bad rubbish on Full Tilt! Find live games guys! Then if you get bad beats with an honest deal you can chalk it up to real poker and learn. You can't learn squat on Full Tilt except to be a MIND READER and know you should lay down a set of jacks because some donk is going to get 3-4 runners to beat you....... time and again like I have had happen! There are some hands you cannot and should not lay down. Full Tilt EXPLOITS this poker principle with good players to STEAL our monies via rakes and other means! I am sure of this NOW!! This isn't real poker. This is rigged poker!! Full RIGGED Tilt poker! EVERY TIME you get short stacked in a tournament, you always alwasy lose to a large chip stack despite the actual odds of that play. NOW, do you think this is a coincidence or anecdotal. Nope!! They have to release server space. SO ask yourself you excuse-niks... if they can program small tournies like this to get rid of short stacks..... what makes you think they are not technologically sophisticated enough to pull other online scams where bigger money involved and they know it is too hard to prove their collusion or lack of integrity!! History is replete with people who have stole and cheated in situations whereit seemed impossible and/or unncessary for them to do so since they were making lots of money already. Enron anyone?! ETC. ETC.

Full Tilt Poker is rigged poker!!

jessanders 05-11-08 06:29 PM

How do you explain, nitemare6, the thousands of people who make money playing online on full tilt???

If they are "cheating", explain how some are able to make so much money?

And before you go ranting that they don't exist, I have 3 very close, personal friends who are online poker pros and play online at fulltilt. If they can do it, and they grew up in middle of nowhere mid-west USA, how can it be rigged?

wannabango 05-12-08 05:58 PM

Here is my current situation with FT. I recently (on April 22nd to be exact)won a $5 tourny for $1,600. I IMMEDIATELY withdrew $1,000. The next day I received bad beat after bad beat. Dropped $300 in one day. Well, I've seen this before after a big win on FT so I withdrew an additional $200 leaving about $100 left. For the past week I got it up to about $150.

Here's the catch, today, May 12th I have still not received a dime from either one of my withdrawals. I waited patiently for the 7-10 business days that they say it will take (in the e-mail that I still have from them). So I sent them an e-mail last week saying what's up? They gave me some BS saying that there was a "problem out of our control" and that it should be processed shortly. I've never had a problem before making and receiving withdrawals with FT.

Furthermore, I sent them another e-mail over the weekend asking again to make sure things were working. Now I haven't played since the second e-mail until today.

I start playing today and immediately start losing, lost the first 5-7 sit n go's with 3/4 of them on ridiculous bad beats. I continue to play about 30 more sit n go's (mostly $2 and $3 sng's). I felt another case of FT abuse coming about and sure enough I lost every single one, not placing in the money in a single game. Here's the best part, on 14 (yes 14!!!!) of them I lost against AA, not once did I give the bad beat against them. UNREAL.

To top it all off, on my last sng I was finally doing decently (a little above avg stack). I then made a move all-in with 10 10 against one of the chip leaders. He calls with AQ. Flop comes, T A T. Of course, you guessed it, runer runner aces to end my day. HOW UN-F*****G REAL!

Don't play online poker unless you have money to burn and the patience to watch it burn furiously.

-Wannabango

fulltillbroke 05-12-08 06:07 PM

Someone already explained it here, they just go for more action so they can have more tournaments, more money... I don't think they have "players who always win" , just machine often deals big cards for 2 or more players. Last hand example : Ks-7s against 10d-10h small pre-flop bet, flop 4s-9s-Kh , baiting with check... turn Kc and guy goes all-in... can you guess river? 10s of course, so even if we weren't all-in before now we would be for sure - flush and full.
I'm not a pro just sometimes play small (live) tournaments but if you played for more than a week at ftp you know how often this things happens there and how rare are they in live games

2HighIsTheNutz 05-16-08 09:06 PM

I've stopped by here before to read the comments since they make me laugh and I don't feel so alone when FTP flips the switch on me. But this latest series of bad beats is so insane, I've had it. It feels like the only way to win is to get your money in when you KNOW you're behind. I'm typically ITM in about 1/3 of the SNGs I play. Now it's been 25 in a row of nothing. The last time I went on this type of BS streak was when my bankroll had reached the same level as before this one started. It's like you get to a certain level and they've got to clean you out so you have to start over. Keeps you coming back for more punishment. I haven't won with KK in so long, I get a sick feeling whenever they're dealt. AA is like a coin-flip AT BEST. The last two stack-busters finally drove me over the edge:

Me: QhQs mid-position, everyone folds to me, I raise 4xBB. Only button calls, a donkey calling station. Flop: 10h 3d 6s. I bet the pot. Donkey calls (no surprise). Turn: Jd. OK, no more BS, I pull the trigger all-in. Donkey calls, turns over AsKh. River: Kd.

Me: KhKd mid-position, one limper, I raise 4xBB. Blinds are fairly high but still 3 CALLERS - the limper, SB, and BB!!! Flop: 5h 10d Qs. Everyone checks to me. I'm on semi-tilt I admit, so I move all-in just right off to take it down. If someone hit the flop hard then so be it. Everyone folds, except SB who calls with AcJc!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You know how this ends. Turn: Ks to hit the gutshot.

I start telling everyone at the table how I'm tired of the reverse odds. At this point I have like 1/2BB left. Just to prove my point, I wait until the crappiest hand gets dealt. 2-4 offsuit. I tell everyone ahead of time that my crap will win guaranteed. 4 callers. I hit the straight and quadruple up, but 4 times zero is still zero.

The ONLY big pot I've managed to win in all of this time is when _I_ screwed up and called an all-in with 10-10 against K-K. Of course I hit the set.

I've noticed the same as a lot of people - that there are WAY too many huge pairs vs. huge pairs around the bubble. The bigger stacks always win regardless of their hand. You can argue that they can sustain damage so of course they're the ones that take people out on a suckout. But no, there is no "damage" taken - they destroy everyone the first time. I'd say 80% of the time in these bubble positions my money is in pre-flop with >70% odds to win. I'd say I win maybe 25% of those, and there's just no way to sustain any profitability if that's the result. The most frustrating are the matched high cards when you have a better kicker. E.g. I have A-Q versus A-3. If it's bubble time and the money has gone in against a big stack, you can bet that 3 is coming out almost every f***ing time.

And God help you if you try and use VP$IP to guide your decisions. If you're at a table of donkeys who are playing 25-40% of their hands pre-flop, everyone limping, etc. you can bet when you pick up a monster that it will be THAT EXACT moment that some donk has an even bigger one. Or say there's a guy that calls everything, bets EVERY flop, etc. etc. standard LAG. Everyone else is getting bullied around, but I finally pick up a hand and hit the flop hard with a set or top two pair, etc. EVERY SINGLE TIME IT HAS TO BE THE HAND WHERE THE LAG DONKEY HITS A BOAT OR FLUSH OR SOME OTHER S***.

I self-excluded myself from FTP for 2 days to try and settle myself down - who knows if I'll ever come back. I mean, suckouts are part of the game - donkeys have to eat too. All I'm asking for is my fair slice of the odds. But on that site, it's too often where it feels like they've flipped the switch and you're climbing up hill all the way. I've never had an equivalent swing in my favour to make me believe this is just variance.

simo1981 05-18-08 11:35 PM

The reason im here is that i was VERY suspicious of full tilt being rigged. Ill ley tou be the judge:
Omaha Hi 2/4 game. i play my kk, call a raiser. Flop is K A 2. Check my trip kings, player goes all in. Call (thinking if he has A A, good luck to him). Pot is $307. He has A A. Turn Card: K. Great, quads:). River Card: You guessed it: A. Two sets of quards in the one hand busted me.
I had the shits so i was giving the table a piece of my mind as observer when the EXACT same thing happened 3 hands later. Quad Kings busted by quad Aces. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
What you do with your money is up to you but i know what ill be doing with mine.


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