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Like I said before - I think it got to the point where it screwed up my Live game. As examples, pocket AA is suppossed to occur on the same 9 handed table with KK only 4% of the time. In the last 50 KKs I have had, I ran across AA 7 times (14%!!!) - I now fold KK in online if it is for all my chips - isn't that pathetic??
The last tourney I played I had A 9 suited on in the BB - the cutoff, the button, the small blind, all limped to me - not in good position and don't love A9 anyway so I check. Flop = A,9,5 - Bingo!!! What - the small blind shoves all in - fok - okay - I know he has me covered - Okay - I'll call. What!! - the cutoff goes all in and then the button goes all in - What the FOK is going on? - okay - too late. Every one is in. SB has: 8-7 - shoved for a gut shot with 3 players in front of him - idiot! ME in the BB - two pair - Aces and 9s Shit!!!!!! - the cutoff has pocket 55 - flopped a set! Holy Shit - the button had pocket 99 - flopped a larger set. As I think how could one foking flop hit so many people I type "NH and GG" - to the chap on the button - wasn't his fault. Then the turn - WAM -6!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - the foker in the SB hit his gut shot - river 2 - all chips swish to the idiot. I read the notes from the pocket 99 - "this site suks - fok u you donkey - how you shove with that shit..." I look up our hero at official poker rankings - yep - 18% ranking - magic - just foking magic. There are so MANY hot plops on this site - it is beyond reason. In live games - there are a couple a hands a tourney you can't get away from (e.g., you flop a set, top two pair, etc) - on FT - there are 10 a round and you lose 9 of them. How does Billy go from a 99.9% ranking to a 37% ranking?? I wnet from the mid nineties to the 60 percentile - is this the only game where the more you play the worse you get - oops - I forgot - I cashed. |
I totally agree with eldave that this kind of stuff can really screw up your game. I really find myself questioning my play nowadays because I just don't trust the numbers anymore. When you're playing a game that's dependent on mathematics, and the math doesn't hold up, it really messes with your head.
I was recently playing in a SNG and I looked up everybody else at the table and I was the only one who was a profitable player. Instead of being happy at being the shark swimming among fish, all I could think of is being in a minefield because I didn't feel like skill gets rewarded. Of course I got knocked out by having KK cracked by someone re-raising all-in with A5s then turning the ace...and I wasn't even the least bit surprised. That's what it's come to...I'm terrified that no matter how far ahead I am my hand won't hold up. I'm afraid to push and I'm afraid to call. I find myself hoping to take down small pots rather than risk getting crippled or busted, even when I flop the nuts. I'm a 96% ranked player and right now I don't feel like I have +EV playing against a table full of sub-50% players...it's so sick.... |
When I am done with the meager 9 dollars I have left I am done - the hand below is so typical - the guy below had been pushing with junk for 20 minutes (mostly k rag) so I say to myself - he's my target - just need to wait for the moment. Sure as shit next hand he's the button - I'm the BB. Like clockwork he bets - I call with J 10 suited - if a K comes I fold - if not - I'm going over the top on any raise.
Flop is 6 J 2 - BBBBB-Bingo! I check - the trap is set. He bets 1200 - I snap re-raise to 2400 - he folds right? Nope - he pushes all in. God damn it - did I read him wrong this time - shit - I'm committed - I call for all my chips. He shows: K - FOKING 5 - non suited. As soon as our cards are shown a FOKING K hits the turn. He shoved over a re-raise with Foking AIR!!!!!!! - and of course - he instantly hits the out. I check his ranking. He is: 16%, 31% and 40% for the last three years. Apparently in his training he learned that K 5 offsuit is the FT Nuts. He is typical of the type of player that FT is bringing along - he'll get to a cash out though and join the horror show eventually. ================================================ Full Tilt Poker Game #10692841160: Satellite to $750K Guarantee (80566556), Table 4 - 80/160 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:54:03 ET - 2009/02/17 Seat 2: donniemeboy (4,305) Seat 3: yancancris (4,240) Seat 4: WCshotcrete (3,625) Seat 5: Moejoe13 (7,160) Seat 6: o0alx0o (4,075) Seat 7: eldave1 (5,895) Seat 8: RodsterDP (7,810) o0alx0o posts the small blind of 80 eldave1 posts the big blind of 160 The button is in seat #5 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to eldave1 [Tc Jc] RodsterDP folds donniemeboy folds yancancris folds WCshotcrete folds Moejoe13 raises to 560 o0alx0o folds eldave1 calls 400 *** FLOP *** [6s Jd 2s] eldave1 checks Moejoe13 bets 1,200 eldave1 raises to 2,400 Moejoe13 raises to 6,600, and is all in eldave1 calls 2,935, and is all in Moejoe13 shows [5d Ks] eldave1 shows [Tc Jc] Uncalled bet of 1,265 returned to Moejoe13 *** TURN *** [6s Jd 2s] [Kd] *** RIVER *** [6s Jd 2s Kd] [Ad] Moejoe13 shows a pair of Kings eldave1 shows a pair of Jacks Moejoe13 wins the pot (11,870) with a pair of Kings eldave1 stands up *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 11,870 | Rake 0 Board: [6s Jd 2s Kd Ad] Seat 2: donniemeboy didn't bet (folded) Seat 3: yancancris didn't bet (folded) Seat 4: WCshotcrete didn't bet (folded) Seat 5: Moejoe13 (button) showed [5d Ks] and won (11,870) with a pair of Kings Seat 6: o0alx0o (small blind) folded before the Flop Seat 7: eldave1 (big blind) showed [Tc Jc] and lost with a pair of Jacks Seat 8: RodsterDP didn't bet (folded) |
I think I finally get it - especially when reviewing the hands that have crippled me or knocked me out. Some plays are so inexplicable that they can only be explained by this simple observation - some players already know the hole cards and the board in advance. It is the only way to explain it.
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to eldave1.... Im beginning to think that you may be right. I dont think that people can see hole cards but I do think that the rng algorythm has been cracked/comprimised, its the only explanation.. especially when you post results like that.. Ive personally seen this happen more times than I can count, its a joke...
well.. I finally closed my full tilt account again for the last time.. so now ive began to focus on playing Poker Stars but the garbage is just is bad... i swear these sites are rigged.. its a joke.. I have yet to be knocked out of a tourney pushing with the worst hand... this happened on Pstars tonight... once again AA vs 44 and.... as usual AA cracked cuz I was the smaller stack... such a joke... PokerStars Game #25066428193: Tournament #140492032, $150+$12 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2009/02/17 21:54:17 ET Table '140492032 96' 9-max Seat #2 is the button Seat 1: Billytk01 (2000 in chips) Seat 2: Donk Crusher (5655 in chips) Seat 3: Vitalo (1315 in chips) is sitting out Seat 4: jimmyv52 (4020 in chips) Seat 5: Pokerl)eviL (2165 in chips) Seat 6: toneland (3255 in chips) Seat 7: m0_m0ney69 (2415 in chips) Seat 8: Zackattak13 (5355 in chips) Seat 9: ZooterCHUBBS (3825 in chips) Vitalo: posts small blind 50 jimmyv52: posts big blind 100 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Billytk01 [As Ac] Pokerl)eviL: folds toneland: folds m0_m0ney69: folds Zackattak13: folds ZooterCHUBBS: folds Billytk01: calls 100 Donk Crusher: folds Vitalo: folds jimmyv52: checks *** FLOP *** [4s 8h Tc] jimmyv52: checks Billytk01: bets 200 jimmyv52: calls 200 *** TURN *** [4s 8h Tc] [6c] jimmyv52: bets 300 Billytk01: raises 600 to 900 jimmyv52: raises 2820 to 3720 and is all-in Billytk01: calls 800 and is all-in Uncalled bet (2020) returned to jimmyv52 *** RIVER *** [4s 8h Tc 6c] [2s] *** SHOW DOWN *** jimmyv52: shows [4d 4c] (three of a kind, Fours) Billytk01: shows [As Ac] (a pair of Aces) jimmyv52 collected 4050 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 4050 | Rake 0 Board [4s 8h Tc 6c 2s] Seat 1: Billytk01 showed [As Ac] and lost with a pair of Aces Seat 2: Donk Crusher (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: Vitalo (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 4: jimmyv52 (big blind) showed [4d 4c] and won (4050) with three of a kind, Fours Seat 5: Pokerl)eviL folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: toneland folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 7: m0_m0ney69 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: Zackattak13 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 9: ZooterCHUBBS folded before Flop (didn't bet) It amazes me that statistics hold true in online play cuz my AA and KK get cracked more times than they win for me... bottom line is online poker is going to continue to be rigged and garbage until it is legalized and legally monitored/audited in the United States by a legit gaming commission, not by some bull shit kamahamee moheekan (whatever their names are) tribes in canada.... |
That could be it Billy - last time I emailed FT they still had not had an independent audit of their RNG performed (a pretty simple task if you ask me) - that means even if they are well intended - that's a stretch - they really don't know if the RNG produces the expected results.
As a side note - when most folks want to have you look at your hand stats you have to do it in a FT type of way. As an example: If I looked at all my pocket KK - I won the hand 70% of the time. HOWEVER - that includes all hands - even those that went uncontested (i.e., no one called). Take those out and then I am down to 60%. Now here is the FT magic. Divide those remaining hands into two stacks (1) hands that I call "Crippling" - i.e., you have 70% to 100% of your stack at risk to (2) all others hands. - God damn - in the first - "crippling" category KK only wins 30% of the time. There is no valid reason for the stats to change -hands are hands. I think I went about 30 straight tourneys where I went out as the favorite at the time all the chips went in - I would have been delighted jsut to win half of those - oh well - off toe a live game today - yes! |
Well goodness - I just spent my last 3 dollars on a satellite. It was jsut great - below is the hand I went out on - on the bubble of course - see - I made the mistake of flopping a set - after the flop, the big stack (of course) caught runner runner for a straight. I knew I was in trouble because after the flop I was only a 97% FOKING favorite. I guess I should learn to lay those down - good luck to all - I hope they catch these crooks
Full Tilt Poker Game #10733756437: Satellite to $750K Guarantee (80828766), Table 3 - 400/800 Ante 100 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:49:08 ET - 2009/02/19 Seat 1: eldave1 (7,440) Seat 2: imrdmw (4,640) Seat 3: lululacrepe (15,925) Seat 4: brutATwork (21,356) Seat 6: Body2177 (11,184) Seat 7: Bassnbird (21,295) Seat 8: CHARGER55 (20,415) Seat 9: datec4 (12,245) eldave1 antes 100 imrdmw antes 100 lululacrepe antes 100 brutATwork antes 100 Body2177 antes 100 Bassnbird antes 100 CHARGER55 antes 100 datec4 antes 100 Body2177 posts the small blind of 400 Bassnbird posts the big blind of 800 The button is in seat #4 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to eldave1 [9c 9s] CHARGER55 folds datec4 folds eldave1 raises to 3,200 imrdmw folds lululacrepe folds brutATwork folds Body2177 raises to 11,084, and is all in Bassnbird folds eldave1 calls 4,140, and is all in Body2177 shows [Qh Ac] eldave1 shows [9c 9s] Uncalled bet of 3,744 returned to Body2177 *** FLOP *** [Qc Js 9h] *** TURN *** [Qc Js 9h] [Ts] *** RIVER *** [Qc Js 9h Ts] [Kc] Body2177 shows a straight, Ace high eldave1 shows a straight, King high Body2177 wins the pot (16,280) with a straight, Ace high eldave1 stands up *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 16,280 | Rake 0 Board: [Qc Js 9h Ts Kc] Seat 1: eldave1 showed [9c 9s] and lost with a straight, King high Seat 2: imrdmw folded before the Flop Seat 3: lululacrepe folded before the Flop Seat 4: brutATwork (button) folded before the Flop Seat 6: Body2177 (small blind) showed [Qh Ac] and won (16,280) with a straight, Ace high Seat 7: Bassnbird (big blind) folded before the Flop Seat 8: CHARGER55 folded before the Flop Seat 9: datec4 folded before the Flop |
to eldave... SPEECHLESS..... what else can i possibly add to this? such a joke!!!!
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standard.
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Fulltilt isn't rigged, ive been playing it for years and ive never had any problems.lol, only kidding, ive lost sh** loads on there, my sharkscope is so sick. I was grinding $13 stakes , platowed and lost on stars for 2 months, then changed to ipoker and its steadily increasing, playing $55 within a month,lol.
Remember guys that its when your money goes in thats the important factor. Eladave1 youve had some sick beats but when you write your trips were beaten by runner runner, thats misleading, you lost 99 vs AQ, bout 42% time thas gonna happen, even if the board comes 99A A A its still not a bad beat, its a lost coin flip. Think you should all play live till the laws sorted, atleast you got sh** load of live games about. I kept going back to these 2 sites and every time the consistency of beats is rediculous, dont drive yourself insane, if you aint winning long-term somewhere, you leave whatever reasons or suspicions you have.Good luck |
Played in live tournament yesterday. 54 players; finished 9th.
Last hand my AK and all in as short stack. Guy calls w/AQos. Flop is xxQ. Now if this had been on Full Tilt, I would be yelling rigged. Earlier hand I'm in with pp Qs, ss calls all in with 93os and other guy comes in with J9 or 10. Flop is 93x. Turn is 6. Guess what river s ? Yep a full rigged tilt Q - for trips. Two-outer I knock-out two players and become chip leader. |
well since ive closed my Full Rigged account I have been playing at Joker Stars.. and same bs happening there too.... Im deep in the Sunday 1.5mil guarantee, I make standard raise with kjo before cutoff seat and BB pushes all in (BB has been pushing weak all night so I honestly felt I had the best hand..) heres how it played out... as usual 3 outer on river is hit... what a joke...
PokerStars Game #25248048210: Tournament #140492030, $200+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (2000/4000) - 2009/02/22 20:32:24 ET Table '140492030 1081' 9-max Seat #8 is the button Seat 1: Sinsim (50324 in chips) Seat 2: KillBroccoli (29354 in chips) Seat 3: DcHustlers (59275 in chips) Seat 4: frenchfish94 (82954 in chips) Seat 5: zappdanko (42400 in chips) Seat 6: shoes33 (141950 in chips) Seat 7: Billytk01 (52805 in chips) Seat 8: Creatiff111 (181271 in chips) Seat 9: CR711 (45063 in chips) Sinsim: posts the ante 400 KillBroccoli: posts the ante 400 DcHustlers: posts the ante 400 frenchfish94: posts the ante 400 zappdanko: posts the ante 400 shoes33: posts the ante 400 Billytk01: posts the ante 400 Creatiff111: posts the ante 400 CR711: posts the ante 400 CR711: posts small blind 2000 Sinsim: posts big blind 4000 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Billytk01 [Kh Jc] KillBroccoli: folds DcHustlers: folds frenchfish94: folds zappdanko: folds shoes33: folds Billytk01: raises 5000 to 9000 Creatiff111: folds CR711: folds Sinsim: raises 40924 to 49924 and is all-in Billytk01: calls 40924 *** FLOP *** [5h Qd Js] *** TURN *** [5h Qd Js] [2h] *** RIVER *** [5h Qd Js 2h] [As] *** SHOW DOWN *** Sinsim: shows [7h Ah] (a pair of Aces) Billytk01: shows [Kh Jc] (a pair of Jacks) Sinsim collected 105448 from pot Billytk01 said, "rigged" Billytk01 said, "rigged" *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 105448 | Rake 0 Board [5h Qd Js 2h As] Seat 1: Sinsim (big blind) showed [7h Ah] and won (105448) with a pair of Aces Seat 2: KillBroccoli folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: DcHustlers folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: frenchfish94 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: zappdanko folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: shoes33 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 7: Billytk01 showed [Kh Jc] and lost with a pair of Jacks Seat 8: Creatiff111 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 9: CR711 (small blind) folded before Flop |
sorry Billy - that's not rigged - how is that rigged? a guy has pp As???
In live youtnament I had KJ. Flop was xJQ. Dues to the lights (it was being filmed for cable) I didn't see the J. I forget if I bet or checked. But nezt card was x and I bet 4000 into pot of 5400 after a check. Guy then check-bets 5000 more. So I put him on a Q. I folded (probably not a good move) and he showed pp 10s. What is curious is whuy the BB donk called with A7s. Maybe he didn't put oyu on an A. Further why did you call. I would not have called with KJo when I was sitting pretty. Why not wait until you have cards and don't get an all-in raise. I think it was not good play on your part. |
sorry Billy - that's not rigged - how is that rigged? a guy has A7 ?
In live tournament I had KJ. Flop was xJQ. Due to the lights (it was being filmed for cable) I didn't see that it was a J. I forget if I bet or checked. But next card was 6 and I bet 4000 into pot of 5400 after a check. Guy then check-bets 6000 more. So I put him on a Q. I folded (probably not a good move) and he showed pp 10s. What is curious is why the BB donk called with A7s. Maybe he didn't put you on an A. What is more cuious is why you called. I would not have called with KJo when I was sitting pretty. Why not wait until you have cards and don't get an all-in raise. I think it was not good play on your part. |
I Blame myself - I went one more time. I am so stupid -guy caught runner runner 10 10 to win. This was the third straight time I went out of a tourney as a 98% fav after the flop. As a note - I got short stacked in this tourney after being the chip leader by having AK suited beaten by 4-2 off suit - flop A, K 4 - I shove and the foker calls with 4-2 and hits 4 on turn. A few hands later I am out with the hand below (ps - another 14 percent ROI fella)
To the "non-riggers" of the world who would offer suggestions on how to play hands differently. Don't - BECAUSE - it don't foking matter. If I play AA as all ins - cracked. If I bet 5 times the BB - cracked - slowplay - cracked. If I play suited connectors -I'll hit the straight to be beat by the river flush (and almost always runner runner). If I play ABC poker (just the top ten hands) I will lose 80% of them. The last 30 tourneys that I got busted on FT I was the fav - foking 30!!!!!!. And yes - you can just call out the cards like you are the amazing preston. Oh - he has 8 4 off suit and you flop a set of fives, Call it with me - turn 6 river 7 - see ya - would not want to be ya. ================================================= Full Tilt Poker Game #10835682002: $8 + $0.80 Tournament (81547731), Table 6 - 300/600 Ante 75 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:18:39 ET - 2009/02/25 Seat 1: orla (26,179) Seat 2: rocky556 (21,089) Seat 3: eldave1 (3,645) Seat 4: Lakshmi78 (10,583) Seat 5: booker_tg (23,656) Seat 6: coconacueca (11,060) Seat 7: blondie lau (21,907) Seat 8: poart (10,164) orla antes 75 rocky556 antes 75 eldave1 antes 75 Lakshmi78 antes 75 booker_tg antes 75 coconacueca antes 75 blondie lau antes 75 poart antes 75 rocky556 posts the small blind of 300 eldave1 posts the big blind of 600 The button is in seat #1 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to eldave1 [Ah 6h] Lakshmi78 folds booker_tg folds coconacueca folds blondie lau folds poart folds orla folds rocky556 raises to 2,400 eldave1 raises to 3,570, and is all in rocky556 calls 1,170 eldave1 shows [Ah 6h] rocky556 shows [Th Jh] *** FLOP *** [6d 6c Kh] *** TURN *** [6d 6c Kh] [Ts] *** RIVER *** [6d 6c Kh Ts] [Td] eldave1 shows a full house, Sixes full of Tens rocky556 shows a full house, Tens full of Sixes rocky556 wins the pot (7,740) with a full house, Tens full of Sixes eldave1 stands up *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 7,740 | Rake 0 Board: [6d 6c Kh Ts Td] Seat 1: orla (button) folded before the Flop Seat 2: rocky556 (small blind) showed [Th Jh] and won (7,740) with a full house, Tens full of Sixes Seat 3: eldave1 (big blind) showed [Ah 6h] and lost with a full house, Sixes full of Tens Seat 4: Lakshmi78 folded before the Flop Seat 5: booker_tg folded before the Flop Seat 6: coconacueca folded before the Flop Seat 7: blondie lau folded before the Flop Seat 8: poart folded before the Flop |
What do you think full tilt managers do all day? Sit around and dream up ways to make the online poker experience the best it could possibly be? (That's a joke.)
I'm certain full tilt targets low bankrolls. If one's bankroll falls below say $40, you'll be sure to receive MORE than your fair share of bad beats, poor stud and razz starting hands and coolers. Algorithmically forcing this kind of action upon a good regular player will do one of two things. He'll buy in bigger or quit. Take the later folks. It's rigged. I doubt what they do is illegal, just unethical as hell. Just say no to online poker. Play live if you don't want to get stiffed. |
to nitemare6... I clearly explained why I called in that spot and what the BB was doing (pushing weak all night)... Is this hand a total classic rigging like im use to seeing? NO.. but is it the same typical reward the donkey who constantly pushes at any spot in tourney? Yes.. I would of loved to sit back, relax and pick another spot to call or push all my chips but at that point/deep in the tourney I could not afford to not make the call based on the BB previous plays and due to the chip count position I was in at that point in the tourney...
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Dammit! All in preflop and getting beat happens all the time! The worst shapes are about 4 to 1 and in every tournament of 1500 people, how many all ins do you expect to win? If you gotta survive 10 or 11 all ins your gonna take lots of beats.
I personally don't play FT or stars cos for whatever reason, results aint right, but the over-aggresiveness of players on these sites means you gonna be flipping alot of coins. Suggestion, play cash games, grind them with a bankroll, cash games are a tighter game with less flips and more skill-rewarded play. Whatever site im on, if im in a multitable tourny over 500, i assume im going out because you cant win by skill alone, your hands have gotta stand up, that takes luck or playin alot of tournys. |
Try cash games LIVE folks. Online poker is rigged.
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ditto
I'm am a net positive live cash game and tournament player up to $10/$20 (all games), but consitently lose on fulltilt playing $5 sit and go's (with a $200 bankroll).
The guys are crooks, but justify their action because the beats aren't going to them, the beats are going to other paying customers. They're interested in maximizing their rake, and in slightly growing healthy bankrolls, those rolls fulltilt management deems are playing in appropriate cash game/sg as compared to their bankroll. While slightly reducing lessor sized bankrolls their rake will naturally increase. the winners are happy and play more, the low bankrolls pony up more $$ or quit. Like too many businesses they're bottom feeders, and have correctly surmized that the amount of resistance they'll see from this group will be minimal. If you place in a $200 bankroll and play in $1-$2 sit and go's exclusively you'll do fine. If you dare to move up (say to $5 s/g's with this size bankroll), you will eventually be pummeled. Odds will be in the favor of the higher bankrolls (those with say $1000 bankroll at $5 s/g level). It's just good business. They want to encourage people to move up to higher limits creating more rake for them. If you deposit $1000 and play in $5 s/g's exclusively you'll do fine. Dare to move up to $20 and you will be pummeled. Their practices are unethical as hell, and makes the game a complete sham. There is no way that on line gaming should be legal. The people that run these businesses are bottomline motivated, and will take every possible means of increasing their own bottom line. There is no online gaming regulation, therefore their biased programming isn't illegal. Still, it's corrupt and contemptable as hell. |
Yes - you can look at your hand history (I use Poker Tracker) and you will see over the thousands of hands that you have played that the odds hold up (for example. if I look at pocket AA for all my hands they won 76%). HOWEVER. In my case I disected my hand histories into two different categories :
"Crippling Hand" - a hand that cost you all or at least 70% of your stack. "Late Tourney hands" (less then 20 percent of the field is left) In the above two scenarios - all of a sudden the odds change -AA only holds up half the time, I lose most of the hands where I am the favorite at the time when all the chips go in and generally lose when I am the dog. Why would the odds change???? If AA wins 75% overall - it should be the same for at the beginning of the tourney and the end of the tourney and the same regardless of the amount of your stack at risk. BUT IT DON'T. To me, this is the insidious part of the rigging. To top it off -and this is where it is totally different then live - at the critical moments of the tournament is where you get the "are you foking kidding" (you must of known what cards were coming)" calls. (e.g., AK called by k-7 offsuit, etc.) When I play live - by the time you get down to 20 percent of the field - most the nonsense callers are long gone - not at Full Tilt - there are actually more of them. Late in the tourney is also the time of the tournament when you can call the cards that are going to come. If I have pocket JJ and the flop is A of clubs, King of clubs and jack of diamonds giving me a set and I bet big and get the normal two callers - I know the exact card that is coming on the turn (say it with me now - the Queen of Clubs - that would be the one card given donkey 1 the nut gut shot straight and donkey 2 the flush with the 2 and 3 of clubs he had in the hole. On-line poker is the only form of gambling I have expereinced where you actually get worse the more you play. Makes real sense. I play live 4 to 5 times a week and yes there are bad beats and yes there are donkeys and yes there are suck outs - but I never leave the casino with that sick "I just got foked" feeling in my gut you get from Full Tilt because I know that over time at a live game things square up and eventually donks lose. I have simply lost the ability to stomach the on-line rigging anymore. And it ain't the money - I got more then enough - it is just the obvious rigging that is going on that makes you cringe. You know the truth - no matter how you played - NO MATTER - you were going to lose. It was just FT determining when the anvil was going to fall. Anway - long story long - when you look at your stats - ignore everything other then showdowns where at least 70 percent of your stack is at risk - look at the amount of favs you loose and look at the hands you are being called by for all the c hips - you will want to vomit. |
I don't think so. Not really. They're given the following guidelines.... If a player is playing slightly over his bankroll, for example say a player is playing a $5 sit and go with a less than $200 bankroll, then that player should receive a negative expected ROI of roughly -10%.
The hands that the programmers setup to ensure a negative ROI to low bankrolls aren't clever at all. They tend to play themselves.... Obvious raising or calling hands at appropriate times, and flops that ensure a call by the winning hand etc. Of course fulltilt cannot control what a player does..... you'll win some setups because a player folded a hand the software predetermined him to win. The whole thing really comes to light at final tables in multi-table action. It's rather pathetic. the programmers aren't clever, and neither is management. It's about their bottomline rake. |
I have played online poker at Absolute Joker and Full Scam and will agree with your comments fully. Just today I had K-K preflop and go all in only to be called by Q-2 and guess what the flop is ..... 2-2-6. I'm no odds expert but I'm fairly certain there is a 95%+ chance of me winning, but because my bankroll is under $50, this is probably why I lost.
Also if you haven't seen, there are people over in Europe hacking poker software to the point where they can see everyone's hole cards. This makes online poker no fun anymore. I even decided to try out an Omaha hi/lo poker bot since this game is more mathematically predictable. Of course though since I did not buy in for more than the minimum of $50, I slowly lost money. When it comes down to it, don't count on winning in online poker as a source of income. Go out and get a job first, and then find some friends for a home game every week. Now that I've traded on the options market and online poker scams, I think it's time for me to save my money and trust no one =) |
I played low level SNGs (5 and 10) and the occasional cash game on Full Tilt. I can speak specifically on my experiences with the SNG and my theory as to what's going on. Throughout my life, I've always excelled in math. In college, I studied multiple Probability/Stat courses and I've passed the Probability actuary exam. So, I have always been attracted to Poker because of its close relationship to the laws behind these subjects. Intuitively, I've sensed a strong advantage given to less-skilled players...when playing on Full Tilt. I don't have the data to run numbers...but it's much like a baseball player estimating the speed of the ball when he's at bat or a pianist recognizing the pitch of a note that a song is projecting. When you've dealt with the subjects before, you develop a feeling of being able to approximate.
Now, I am interested in one poster's claim of how his pocket K's have performed in "critical" showdowns. I'd like to compare the theoretical odds he had vs. the real odds that he's claimed...along with test that difference with a confidence interval to see if there is a statistically significant difference in the means. Maintaining the odds on the whole but then skewing the "critical" showdowns would be a brilliant scam because most people wouldn't think to dissect the data into two groups...unless he also had the intuitive sense to suspect this specific scam. Other posters have made claims that when money is taken off, bad beats seem to noticeably rise, whereas when money is put into the site, a lucky streak is the reward. This actually fits perfectly with a theory that I had originally developed in my mind before reading these posts. The reality of poker is that the majority of players are poor players. It's much like sex in that 20% of the people are making 80% of it. So, imagine if a poker site allowed this to continue...what would happen? Well, eventually, the poor players would either run out of money or stop posting more money...and the good players would take all the money and horde it. So, what happens? 80% of the people no longer play and now the site only contains 20% of it's original size...meaning it only pulls 20% of its original profits in rake. This seems like a pretty poor business model doesn't it? Most businesses want to increase profits not lose them. This is an interesting long-term problem because it's not a consequence of anything to do with normal business conditions, where you worry about losing market share to a competitor...but rather the competitor is your own customer (the gap between the good and bad player) and the reality of poker odds. So, how does one avoid this conundrum? Answer: Give an advantage to the weaker players...through more forgiving software. So, what does this do? It allows the poor players to keep more money than they should...and hence keep playing games...and therefore maintain the original rake. And who foots the bill? The good players who otherwise would win that money. So, essentially, the poor players are upgraded to slightly below mediocre players and the good players are downgraded to slightly above mediocre players. Do you see an advantage here? Now, the good players continue to play to get the results that they know they should eventually get...and the poor players get a heightened sense of belonging...that they are just around the corner from making real money with their poor play. So, not as many people run out of money nearly as fast as they should...and therefore, the site continues to roll in the rake profits. Now, this also fits with the deposit/withdrawal anomaly that some people have noticed. Who do you think is typically depositing money? Answer: A poor player, who even with the software advantage, is losing in the long run...so, he's rewarded with a nice lucky streak. And who is typically withdrawling money? Answer: Well the good player who is still squeezing out profits...and so he is punished with a bad luck streak. Monitoring the deposit/withdrawal schedules of players is one way to identify the difference between the players (in reality). Which, I'm sure it gets more and more difficult for Full Tilt to identify who is who...since their software is designed to move everyone towards the same ability level...or better to say, results level...making it hard to tell the good from the bad by looking at their stats. This of course is just a theory...but if it's true and if enough good players realize the bias...and quit playing...the whole scheme gets harder and harder to maintain...until it finally falls apart. But essentially what I'm saying is that it's in the Poker site's best interest to skew the results towards the bad players...so as to retain these players and maintain their rake profits. What do others think about this? |
Sulfysulf.... You said everything Ive been thinking and claiming for while now...
Also realize that these pokersites will continue to run fraudelant and skewed software until online gaming is monitored by a legit gaming commision and unfortunately this will only happen when online poker is legalized and run out of the United States... until then it will stay corrupt where anyone can win... Not only is this true with full tilt but with poker stars, absolute joker.. etc... Played Pokerstars 1.5 mil guarantee tonight and got busted out with my KK losing to Q4.... PokerStars Game #26004452399: Tournament #145821818, $200+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (400/800) - 2009/03/15 19:46:13 ET Table '145821818 114' 9-max Seat #4 is the button Seat 1: BodogMaven (65495 in chips) Seat 2: dobbbber (44321 in chips) Seat 3: rdesch (19640 in chips) Seat 4: Billytk01 (25073 in chips) Seat 5: mtsacoman (7515 in chips) Seat 6: Z@£D0 (47602 in chips) Seat 7: wildelephant (35759 in chips) Seat 8: pzane (7885 in chips) Seat 9: Krumpir (14550 in chips) BodogMaven: posts the ante 50 dobbbber: posts the ante 50 rdesch: posts the ante 50 Billytk01: posts the ante 50 mtsacoman: posts the ante 50 Z@£D0: posts the ante 50 wildelephant: posts the ante 50 pzane: posts the ante 50 Krumpir: posts the ante 50 mtsacoman: posts small blind 400 Z@£D0: posts big blind 800 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Billytk01 [Kc Kh] wildelephant: folds pzane: folds Krumpir: folds BodogMaven: folds dobbbber: raises 1200 to 2000 rdesch: folds Billytk01: calls 2000 mtsacoman: folds Z@£D0: folds *** FLOP *** [2d 9s 4h] dobbbber: bets 1800 Billytk01: calls 1800 *** TURN *** [2d 9s 4h] [Qs] dobbbber: bets 5600 Billytk01: raises 15623 to 21223 and is all-in dobbbber: calls 15623 *** RIVER *** [2d 9s 4h Qs] [4s] *** SHOW DOWN *** dobbbber: shows [Qc 4c] (a full house, Fours full of Queens) Billytk01: shows [Kc Kh] (two pair, Kings and Fours) dobbbber collected 51696 from pot *** SUMMARY *** |
Losing to Q4 with Ks one time doesn't prove anything... and I think these sites are totally corrupt and rigged. But you continue to give examples that don't support the case for rigging.
I played in a live tournmament a few weeks ago. I went in with Qs and short stack had to call - and went all in, with 93o. The flop was 93X so I thought it was over. On the river I hit a Q. Now if that happend on full Riggexd tilt we'd all be screaming that it was rigged. So a guy calling with Q4 and hittign a full house or trips is not supportive that Full Rigged IS s rigged. There are better examples. |
Lost my computer drive so have not posted for awhile. Interesting threads.
Does not matter if it is one hand or a thousand - the response is always going to be the same ("ain't statistically valid"). Not to speak for Billy, but if he has had my experience, I think he was thinking something like this: 1. Dude bets out of position - Hmmmm - I know I have pocket KK and should raise, but the last 3,500 times I have shoved preflop with this hand I get called by some 20% ROI player with ace rag and lose with an ace on the flop. 2. Okay - smooth call - if the typical ace comes I'll fold. 3. Great flop - the Full Tilt fok me server must be on the fritz today. 4. What - he bets? Overpair maybe? Is this guy legit - I'll bet the bastard has tens - maybe jacks. Maybe even hit the rag part of his ace. Okay - one more just to make sure it ain't the ace rag curse. Call. 5. Turn - Q - big bet by the fella - good - I finally got the read - AQ or KQ - good time to shove - he's crushed. 6. WTF?????? Q friggin 4 - he raised in mid position with Q friggin 4? Foking idiot - what is is poker ranking - 51% - foking figures. Come on - I still got any 2, 9 or K - 7. River 4 - super - just foking super, wouldn't have mattered if I had three aces - was going down. The moral of the story is this. There is a commune of us that have been foked so many times that we have stopped playing poker (at least on this site) according to the book because NO MATTER HOW WE PLAY A HAND - we are screwed. I can't count the times I have had a hand like Bill's where I played it traditional - raise - get - reraised - tell myself - well, if he has Aces - that's poker - only to have the dude call an all in with some horrible hand and suck out anyway. What happens here - (okay - in my personal experience) you are gonna get the goodbye hand when FT has had enough of ya. You'll flop the set of Kings to be beat by runner runner flush by some guy who called with 10 3 suited, etc. etc. When I play live and get KK or AA the cashier register in my head goes cha-ching!!! At Fulltilt - I hear the "here we go again" This is the hand they are sending me out on. I nevered really cared about losing or winning on FT - I make my money in live games. What I wanted was a good decent place to practice poker. That, it is not. There was a period of time where my live game went in the tank because my FT experience was influencing my play- I had to detox - took some time but I got back to normal. And yes - you all should keep track of all your all ins. Compare your stats with hands at critical moments (70% of your stack or better) and see if the odds play out correctly - they never have for me - maybe it's just me. I do believe that one day there will be the 60 minutes story on the rig - maybe I am just crazy -we'll see. |
I posted bout a few months ago about changing from stars to ipoker and the difference in graphs is hilarious.
STARS- about 10,000 hands of $10 sit n go's results: -$50 Profit/hr: -$0.5 IPOKER- 6068 hands of 0.25/0.50 cash games results: +$829.40 Profit/hr: +$13.66 The fact the stake on ipoker is 5x higher and still not on the same planet as my stars stats is pretty sick. I'm aware according to stat sites that you need 9,900billion hands before you get an inkling of how one fairs at poker, but this is a pretty damn good idea of where my bankroll is heading on both sites. I watched a tourny on FT the other day, and it has been so long since ive seen such BS. Every high pair was gettin cracked, runner runner str8s. It was hilarious. |
I have commented before on how FT gives you the unavoidable hand along with the fact that you cannot play normal. The one below is so typical.
Just minding own business on the BB - no bets by the time it gets to me. I have Q 5 suited. The flop gives me a set of fives. I check. The guy on the has raised on the button five straight times of course he raises this time. Surpisingly the small stack in the SB calls for almost all his chips. Okay I think, I got him easily covered and he probably hit the K. Flush draw at worst but, being a short stack I figure he would have shoved all his chips if he were on the draw. Now I think, button has checked all his draw hands before, he bet this flop. God damn - he's got a K too. I can slow play this - there is only one out if I read this right - the single remaining King. Okay - I'll just call the SB and get all of the button's chips on the river. Please, anything but a K. KKKKKKKKKKK - Foking K on the river! Of course both the small blind and the button had the K. Not the worst beat by far that anyone would ever see. But it is so illustrative of this site and how the hands are set up. (A) I am not even in the hand if I am not the BB and everyone limps to me. (B) I am out of the hand other then the fact I flopped a foking set (C) The flop - of course - hits the all of the three players in the hand (D)I make the exact right read (e) I get the inevitable one-outer foking. I know readers would say you blew it - you should have shoved on the flop. In Live - yep. At FT - I know I am getting called anyway - the shove gives me no protection and no folding equity. ================================================ Full Tilt Poker Game #11221026798: Satellite to $750K Guarantee (84360680), Table 2 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:54:03 ET - 2009/03/19 Seat 1: A3LegdDog (710) Seat 2: Laturnus (6,060) Seat 4: yancancris (5,160) Seat 5: _kr1ter_ (4,260) Seat 6: youlookingood (1,095) Seat 7: eldave1 (5,600) Seat 8: r10ABEL (5,960) youlookingood posts the small blind of 100 eldave1 posts the big blind of 200 The button is in seat #5 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to eldave1 [Qs 5c] r10ABEL folds A3LegdDog folds Laturnus folds yancancris folds _kr1ter_ calls 200 youlookingood calls 100 eldave1 checks *** FLOP *** [5h Ks 5s] youlookingood checks eldave1 checks _kr1ter_ bets 800 youlookingood calls 800 eldave1 calls 800 *** TURN *** [5h Ks 5s] [Ad] youlookingood bets 95, and is all in eldave1 calls 95 _kr1ter_ calls 95 *** RIVER *** [5h Ks 5s Ad] [Kd] eldave1 checks _kr1ter_ bets 1,000 eldave1 calls 1,000 *** SHOW DOWN *** _kr1ter_ shows [Kh 9s] a full house, Kings full of Fives eldave1 mucks _kr1ter_ wins the side pot (2,000) with a full house, Kings full of Fives youlookingood shows [Kc Th] a full house, Kings full of Fives youlookingood ties for the main pot (1,643) with a full house, Kings full of Fives _kr1ter_ ties for the main pot (1,642) with a full house, Kings full of Fives *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 5,285 Main pot 3,285. Side pot 2,000. | Rake 0 Board: [5h Ks 5s Ad Kd] Seat 1: A3LegdDog didn't bet (folded) Seat 2: Laturnus didn't bet (folded) Seat 4: yancancris didn't bet (folded) Seat 5: _kr1ter_ (button) showed [Kh 9s] and won (3,642) with a full house, Kings full of Fives Seat 6: youlookingood (small blind) showed [Kc Th] and won (1,643) with a full house, Kings full of Fives Seat 7: eldave1 (big blind) mucked [Qs 5c] - a full house, Fives full of Kings Seat 8: r10ABEL didn't bet (folded) |
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