HomePokerGames Poker Forum

HomePokerGames Poker Forum (http://www.homepokergames.com/vbforum/index.php)
-   General Talk (http://www.homepokergames.com/vbforum/forumdisplay.php?f=201)
-   -   Folding Pocket Aces in a tournament (http://www.homepokergames.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=12795)

_lj_ 03-28-05 05:38 PM

funny story
 
Ok, I've got a little story about this situation. I was playing in a 60 person tournament at a local bar (10 people per each of 6 tables). I got delt the pocket aces on the very first hand of the tournament. I'm sitting one position to the right of the button, one person goes all in before me so I go all in thinking I'm invincible. He beats me with 3 jacks. Here's the kicker - the bar has a siren to signal when the first person is out. So I had to wade my way through a laughing and pointing crowd to the bar to soak my sorrow. Would I go all in again? I honestly don't know:)

Unregistered 03-28-05 07:19 PM

That is a brutal story. Funny though. I think that the arrogance is the worst thing about poker. When someone out draws you and then brags about it and acts like a fool. I hate that. I act calm but im already steaming from the loss and heres this A hole laughing and telling me how great he is. also when the person is not a very good player and starts telling me how to play as the game goes on because i got beat in a couple of hands early. That sometimes works out because he will start to over value his hands and i can get some good cash of of him but it still makes me want to bitch slap him.

Unregistered 03-28-05 11:57 PM

to my unlucky friend who did what any good poker player would do with pocket bullets..............

remember, "what goes around, comes around."

get right back on that felt, go right back to that tournament, and listen for that siren....only this time you won't be the one walking away from the table with your head between your legs...he will.

Bradley (North Carolina)

Unregistered 03-29-05 08:19 AM

Here's another...
 
Here's something that happened to a buddy of mine at a tournament here in Columbus, OH. It was a NL tourney with 1 rebuy. He sat down and his first hand was AA, in late position. Before him there was a bet and a raise of all in. He called. I can't remember what the guy had (I know my buddy does!) but it wasn't that good and he pulled a straight to bust the aces. He bought in again and his first hand was AA again! Same story, an all-in in front of him that he called only to get busted again. It's awful but I laughed so hard when that happened.

Unregistered 03-29-05 02:30 PM

Alright, I'll put my two cents in on this issue. Seeing as how I only read the first 2 pages of this I'm probably just repeating what someone else said. You don't go all in with the pocket aces. Here's why.

People go all-in with good hands for the most part. AA, KK, AK, QQ. Now more than likely the second caller is going to have a hand that is REALLY good that he/she would risk their tournament life on. Most likely this hand contains an Ace. I'd bet on AK suited or maybe even the other two aces. Therefore your hand is VERY unlikely to improve. If you read these posts you notice that many times the pocket aces were cracked by someone making trips. If there aren't any aces out there for you to get your trips with, you're effectivly sitting there with your fingers crossed that you don't get beaten. Not something you want to do.

Toss the hand aside and wait till you can out play people on the flop. Remember the winner of that hand will have a lot of chips that you can take over the coming hands.

Unregistered 03-29-05 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered
Now more than likely the second caller is going to have a hand that is REALLY good that he/she would risk their tournament life on. Most likely this hand contains an Ace. I'd bet on AK suited or maybe even the other two aces. Therefore your hand is VERY unlikely to improve. If you read these posts you notice that many times the pocket aces were cracked by someone making trips. If there aren't any aces out there for you to get your trips with, you're effectivly sitting there with your fingers crossed that you don't get beaten. Not something you want to do.

Good point. If there are a number of callers the two remaining aces may very well be hole cards for other callers, and you can hardly improve your hand. Therefore it is an excellent reason to fold. But... only if there are a lot of callers.

If there's only one caller or perhaps two players, I will go all-in with my AA. Despite the horror stories. Let's not kid ourselves. The AA horror stories are so well known because they are the exception to the rule. Would you tell your buddy if you beat someone with AA? I think not.

Unregistered 03-29-05 07:49 PM

give me a break
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered
Alright, I'll put my two cents in on this issue. Seeing as how I only read the first 2 pages of this I'm probably just repeating what someone else said. You don't go all in with the pocket aces. Here's why.

People go all-in with good hands for the most part. AA, KK, AK, QQ. Now more than likely the second caller is going to have a hand that is REALLY good that he/she would risk their tournament life on. Most likely this hand contains an Ace. I'd bet on AK suited or maybe even the other two aces. Therefore your hand is VERY unlikely to improve. If you read these posts you notice that many times the pocket aces were cracked by someone making trips. If there aren't any aces out there for you to get your trips with, you're effectivly sitting there with your fingers crossed that you don't get beaten. Not something you want to do.

Toss the hand aside and wait till you can out play people on the flop. Remember the winner of that hand will have a lot of chips that you can take over the coming hands.

That was the most idiotic theory I have ever heard. OK so I have AA, you have AK. Your going to have to have KK hit the board to beat me with no A falling. I have AA you have KK, QQ, JJ. I have you beat, I dont need help. An A is just as likely to fall as a K, Q, or J. If someone is all in, and they do have AQ, AJ, A10 or A anything else, then they should not be playing poker. Those are not all in hands the first hand of a tourney...SO, if you have AA, play that somone will go all in, I do, and I win most of the time. If you are afraid of getting busted out first, find a new game.

Unregistered 03-31-05 12:20 PM

Yes, you should.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by _lj_
Ok, I've got a little story about this situation. I was playing in a 60 person tournament at a local bar (10 people per each of 6 tables). I got delt the pocket aces on the very first hand of the tournament. I'm sitting one position to the right of the button, one person goes all in before me so I go all in thinking I'm invincible. He beats me with 3 jacks. Here's the kicker - the bar has a siren to signal when the first person is out. So I had to wade my way through a laughing and pointing crowd to the bar to soak my sorrow. Would I go all in again? I honestly don't know:)

You obviously played the hand right, getting all of your chips in while being a 4 to 1 favorite. You simply got unlucky. Sh-t happens.

Chad 03-31-05 12:23 PM

No!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered
Alright, I'll put my two cents in on this issue. Seeing as how I only read the first 2 pages of this I'm probably just repeating what someone else said. You don't go all in with the pocket aces. Here's why.

People go all-in with good hands for the most part. AA, KK, AK, QQ. Now more than likely the second caller is going to have a hand that is REALLY good that he/she would risk their tournament life on. Most likely this hand contains an Ace. I'd bet on AK suited or maybe even the other two aces. Therefore your hand is VERY unlikely to improve. If you read these posts you notice that many times the pocket aces were cracked by someone making trips. If there aren't any aces out there for you to get your trips with, you're effectivly sitting there with your fingers crossed that you don't get beaten. Not something you want to do.

Toss the hand aside and wait till you can out play people on the flop. Remember the winner of that hand will have a lot of chips that you can take over the coming hands.

Keep in mind that THEY are the ones that have to catch cards to survive. Catching the 3rd A would only be an added bonus. Never count on the 3rd A.

Unregistered 04-02-05 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered
Good point. If there are a number of callers the two remaining aces may very well be hole cards for other callers, and you can hardly improve your hand. Therefore it is an excellent reason to fold. But... only if there are a lot of callers.

If there's only one caller or perhaps two players, I will go all-in with my AA. Despite the horror stories. Let's not kid ourselves. The AA horror stories are so well known because they are the exception to the rule. Would you tell your buddy if you beat someone with AA? I think not.


play poker much??? when I have AA in my hand I want as many others to go all in as possible. i mean unless they have a pocket pair also they need to hit 2 cards to beat you. with a pocket pair they have as much chance or getting trips as you do. I've seen it get beat plenty of times but I still want to get AA all the time.

maverick 04-02-05 06:19 PM

bs
 
uh, that theory makes perfect sense. sure you're a big leader going into the flop with pocket rockets, but so what? I rarely play any pocket pair all in due to the fact that I really only have :::::TWO::::: outs to improve my hand. Now, when 20 cards are delt preflop, you're telling me that my two outs haven't been compromised? I have 5 cards to make my 2 outs.. the odds of that are not in my favor.

someone with AJ/AQ/KQ even a suited connector has so many damn outs to bust me it's not worth the risk.

2 outs vs 20, which would you rather be?

i've seen aces go down to two pair, straights, and flushes all the time.. pocket rockets are ONLY effective in smaller games. a 10 player tourney will get you some callers, especially if people get married to hands... because we all know that those are the ones that get lucky the most.

RioCosta 04-02-05 09:20 PM

Well...
 
Yes, but that 20 card thing also applies to the other person's outs as If someone has let's say QJ, you don't think at least one of their hole cards/drawing cards has been compromised? All the more unlikely that they will be able to pull a two pair/straight/etc....

Gosh, if you're scared to go all in (preflop, of course) with the best hand in the game then you shoulod probably stick to Go Fish or something.

Without knowing anyone's hole cards:

AcAd QsJs
% chance of outright win 80.121053 19.522410
% chance of win or split 80.477590 19.878947
pots won: 1374968.50 337335.50

There, I even gave you that the AA didn't even have his suit.

EVEN WHEN BOTH OF YOUR ACES ARE DEAD:

Dead/exposed cards: Ah As

AcAd QsJs
% chance of outright win 78.642411 21.000997
% chance of win or split 78.999003 21.357589
pots won: 1080438.00 290316.00


The results are similar for KQ, KJ, Q10 etc.... suited and much worse for any Ax suited.

Here, I'll even show you with one of the hands you mentioned


AcAh AdQd
% chance of outright win 86.838494 11.916692
% chance of win or split 88.083308 13.161506
pots won: 1497596.50 214707.50

And here's with the last ace dead


Dead/exposed cards: As

AcAh AdQd
% chance of outright win 85.825056 12.846143
% chance of win or split 87.153857 14.174944
pots won: 1326695.50 207243.50


So, in conclusion, the guy got fucking lucky. That's all there is to it. You made the right play and you lost. It's just the nature of the game that's all.

Unregistered 04-03-05 02:03 AM

funny
 
Kind of funny that these people are saying "you shound find another game" if their belief is to fold. You must under value your aces before the flop with a lot of callers. period. If you want to call, call. Unfortunatly the 1st day of the wsop the amount of chips that can be won is smallest in the ntire tournament, and can be made up easy later. Think about it, all in on day one is a big blind on day 2.

Unregistered 04-03-05 08:30 AM

I dont think everyone is realizing the situation warrants the fold not the odds. As I have written before I folded them in a tourney where i was in 2nd place and the leader moved in the reason was i knew if i call and lose i lose alot of cash if i fold and watch the sub 10k stacks get knocked out (I had 95k) then i make real $, and it worked the chip leader knocked out 3 people and it made me $400 immediatley and eventually made me $1300. If you can move up in real money by folding then it is the right play everytime. Take this situation your the chip leader at the wsop and its 3 way the 2nd place and shortstack have about the same amount. your in the bb, the button moves in and the sb calls you have aa in the bb but if you fold you know one will get knocked out or crippled. Why wouldn't you fold here you'll move up in real cash and also go into heads up with at least the same amount of chips.

Unregistered 04-04-05 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RioCosta
Gosh, if you're scared to go all in (preflop, of course) with the best hand in the game then you shoulod probably stick to Go Fish or something.

Do you have any calculations that are less obvious than a headsup all-in pre-flop, let's say AA vs 2 or 3 players all-in already. Now, that would be good information.

Unregistered 04-04-05 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered
I dont think everyone is realizing the situation warrants the fold not the odds. As I have written before I folded them in a tourney where i was in 2nd place and the leader moved in the reason was i knew if i call and lose i lose alot of cash if i fold and watch the sub 10k stacks get knocked out (I had 95k) then i make real $, and it worked the chip leader knocked out 3 people and it made me $400 immediatley and eventually made me $1300. If you can move up in real money by folding then it is the right play everytime. Take this situation your the chip leader at the wsop and its 3 way the 2nd place and shortstack have about the same amount. your in the bb, the button moves in and the sb calls you have aa in the bb but if you fold you know one will get knocked out or crippled. Why wouldn't you fold here you'll move up in real cash and also go into heads up with at least the same amount of chips.

Your right, but the original question was the following:

It is the first hand of the WSOP, a player goes all-in with and 3 players call. You figure at least a couple of them have high pairs and ther other player a decent hand. Against 3 other players, AA is a slightly better than 50% favorite (54%). Do you call looking to double up and take the chip lead - knowing you could also bust out on the first hand? or fold knowing that you can double up your stack anyway with less risk - knowing that having the chip lead on the first day means nothing?

The problem with the above, is that the question is making assumpions on the other players hands. You could be under 50% to win with 3 other people in the pot with you.


Three and its probably a fold. because

You can lose and be out of the tournament, if it was for anything under 50% of my chips, i would call. You can make up the loss the next time you are dealt a very strong hand if you have chips left. You cant make up those losses if you are out of the tournament.

So everyone quoting odds: your odds are only good if you have the time to make the odds real.

As an example: Even though the odds are in their favor, a casino can lose alot of money in a 15 min time frame(say they had to pay a couple of big jackpots). If the casino was forced to close down right then, just like you would have to leave the tournament by calling and losing, they would go out of business even though they had better odds.

Lets say that the casino has a 10% theoretical advantage on you. They will win 10% more often than you. But thats not the only odds that you should look at. Out of 10 trys with a 10$ bet, your total loss theoretically is -$10. But short term fluctuations can easily make someone win 4 times in a row. If you stop playing after winning 4 times, you will make +$30 out 10 bets. Hence, beating the odds and going home a winner. Now, if there was someone making you play 1000 games in row, the short term fluctuations will go both ways, and the casino will win everytime because the odds have time to catch up.

This is why casinos can work on a small percentage on some games. Its Time that makes odds work, not short term fluctuations. You have one advantage the the casinos do not want you to know.......You can leave anytime when you are up. They will stay open, they have to because they are playing long term odds and thats what makes them winners. not a short term fluctuations , win/loss. That is why casinos dont care when someone wins, they know that they will make it up long term. They cannot do that if the player stops playing or if the casino shuts down.

Poker is one of the few games that a player can have an advantage long term if played properly. Not short term. No one has a short term advantage. The turn of the cards can make anyone a winner. Even a bad starting hand. but if played long enough, the the good hand/player will make up the loss if the betting is the same in the same situation.

Why the same? because if you lose a $1000 bet on PAs you cant try and win it back by betting $100 in the same situation, or only getting 2 callers instead of 3. If you do, you are getting even worse odds for your PAs, because you paid more to win less

Now...If your PAs, at a short term percentage at 50%, get busted in the first hand in the WSOP, do you think, long term, you will ever be in the WSOP, in the 1st hand, with PAs, and 3 callers?

Those odds are so large they cannot be calculated.(unless you consistantly play in $10,000 tournaments with 2500 entrants)

Therefore, a fold is obvious.

Not because you cant win, but because the short term odds actually trick your brain into thinking that it is a good call. You are therorically getting 3 to 1 on your bet, and you have the best hand. But if you lose, and you are only a 50% favorite, you will never be able to make up the loss.

If you are in a low limit tourney that you play every week. Its a good call to make. Your odds of making up that loss will eventually catch up to you, and you will make back your short term 3 to 1 bet.

Unregistered 04-05-05 04:17 AM

pussies
 
playing poker is gambling. if your not willing to gamble with aces preflop you should bet on something else. yes, if your in a tournament and your delt aces and three people are all in your odds arent too great. you can fold and rub your vagina or you can gamble and try to quadruple up knowing your going in with the best hand. its just common sense.

Unregistered 04-05-05 11:06 AM

I agree, Pocket Aces is the best hand you can get pre flop....what more do you want...My philosophy is if My Pocket Aces are cracked it just wasnt meant to be...

Unregistered 04-05-05 11:30 AM

Casino post
 
Thanks for the 'long casino post'. A new perspective on why you should at least consider folding AA going against 3 or more on the first hand. Refreshing view compared to the two posts following who continue to confuse playing smart with a sex change.

Buffalo-817 04-05-05 11:46 AM

PokerWannaBe
 
The way I see Aces is simple. All-in with aces with 3 or 4 shooters already in is treacherous, a set or two pair makes you a guy looking to kick the dog!
I would like to be the first all-in in that situation. I suppose most of the posts up there are sound in that, why play poker if you are to fold the best possible pocket hand there is?

Unregistered 04-05-05 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered
playing poker is gambling. if your not willing to gamble with aces preflop you should bet on something else. yes, if your in a tournament and your delt aces and three people are all in your odds arent too great. you can fold and rub your vagina or you can gamble and try to quadruple up knowing your going in with the best hand. its just common sense.

I love players who think playing poker is a gamble. It makes it so much easier for true poker players to win. Keep it up.

jtex_! 04-05-05 03:59 PM

Tell me what you think about this
 
There is no absolute answer in this situation. The best you can do is to put the other players on hands and make the best decision. Call when it’s best, fold when it’s not. In short, just play good poker.

My initial answer was to fold because I’ve played in too many online tournaments where players go all-in on the first hand just looking to double up. In this situation I will play only AA, and I HAVE YET TO WIN A POT. Q8 or J10 or something usually takes it. And, I thought, the aces are a coin flip against three other random hands. But then it occurred to me that the three other hands should NOT be random, especially to a good poker player. Think about what your opponents have. What would they go all in with at the WSOP? Q8? AK? AA?

Here’s a possibility: you’re in the big blind with aces. For some asinine reason a player in late position goes all-in to steal the blinds. We’ll say he has 65s. I know, it’s ridiculous on the first day, when the blinds are pennies, but answer me this… would it be the most ridiculous move you’ve ever seen at a poker table? Not me. Maybe he won his buy in at a free satellite and has no confidence in his ability against the competition. These thoughts are going through the head of the player on his left as he looks down at his pocket jacks. He gets a read and calls. The button player has pocket kings and is a gambler. He likes to mix it up. He calls. Next comes you with your aces. In this situation I would fold. You are a little over 2-1 favorite over the second favorite hand (65s amazingly), but only about 48% to win it all. YOU ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE ELIMINATED. If the gambler on the button has aces instead of kings you are about 52% to tie, 46% to lose and only 2% to win with a four-flush. So you’d be 54% not to lose. Remember that a tie still doubles you up and knocks out the first two players. Most games I’d gamble in this situation but not the first hand at the WSOP. You could make an argument to call or fold here. Your tournament life would depend on a coin flip. In fact, I think that’s the most likely scenario, a group of four hands like this.. JJ KK AA AA. Since it’s probably going to be a chop, you’re only getting about 2-1 on your money, not good pot odds, so I’d fold.
Here’s when I’d call…
This is a plausible possibility: suppose in the original example the first player didn’t have 65s, say he had AK. So it’d be AK, JJ, KK, AA. You go from 48% to win to 64% to win. I would call for sure with this much of an advantage.

So I guess what I’m trying to say is that I’d try to put my opponents on hands (yeah I know, not easy on day 1 hand 1) and call only when I know I have a sizeable advantage to double or quadruple up, not just throw my chips in blindly because my 2 cards say AA.

Unregistered 04-05-05 05:53 PM

on every forum i have seen this question asked, the answer is no Don't fold them it's not like pocket aces strength decreases in a tournament and have you ever seen a pro fold pocket aces, if you have then it's probably after the flop

RioCosta 04-05-05 07:39 PM

Another Basic Play
 
First of all, if you let three people into the flop with the pocket aces, then it's your damn fault. Honestly unless they are all playing premium hands (in which case their cards pretty much cancel each other's out and give you an even better chance to win) you fucked up with the raise. Unless you went all in and three other people called (which is pretty unlikely unless you're playing with a table so bad it would cause the universe to explode).


1,086,008 pots with board cards: (unspecified)

AcAs AhQh KdKh QcQs
% chance of outright win 64.133782 7.546445 18.741114 7.718636
% chance of win or split 65.276315 9.406468 19.168367 8.863379
expected return, % of pot 64.598235 8.369644 18.847927 8.184194
fair pot odds:1 0.548030 10.947940 4.305623 11.218674
pots won: 701542.00 90895.00 204690.00 88881.00

1,086,008 pots with board cards: (unspecified)

AcAs AhKh QcQs KsKd
% chance of outright win 63.810211 8.713564 15.687453 10.577823
% chance of win or split 64.943076 9.924513 16.114798 11.083252
expected return, % of pot 64.269807 9.212202 15.794290 10.723701
fair pot odds:1 0.555941 9.855168 5.331402 8.325139
pots won: 697975.25 100045.25 171527.25 116460.25

1,086,008 pots with board cards: (unspecified)

AcAs AhJh QcQs TcTd
% chance of outright win 55.659074 9.860056 16.672990 16.788919
% chance of win or split 56.678036 10.879017 16.955400 17.071329
expected return, % of pot 56.097952 10.298934 16.743592 16.859521
fair pot odds:1 0.782596 8.709743 4.972434 4.931367
pots won: 609228.25 111847.25 181836.75 183095.75

Honestly, these are likely never to happen in because by the first or second call people without the best of the best hands (like mr AJs right here) will be 99% sure to fold). Gosh, the guy made the right play, the right play just doesn't win all the time, especially if you get enough bad plays against you.

The guy was in late position, went all in and got called by probably one or two dumbasses too many.

I can't imagine this happening in real life. If you were playing online (because 75% of the people online are a breed of sub-mongoloids).then it's probably more likely, but really only at incredibly low stakes. I couldn't imagine someone risk their 100 dollar buy in on q10 suited, now matter how bad they are.

RioCosta 04-05-05 07:45 PM

Also
 
Yeah I would fold aces if they were 48% against kings and 56s except:

1,370,754 pots with board cards: (unspecified)

AcAs KhKd 5s6s
% chance of outright win 60.904582 17.726740 21.082485
% chance of win or split 61.190775 18.012933 21.368677
expected return, % of pot 60.999980 17.822138 21.177882
fair pot odds:1 0.639345 4.610999 3.721907
pots won: 836159.67 244297.67 290296.67

1,370,754 pots with board cards: (unspecified)

AcAs KhKd 5h6h
% chance of outright win 61.159916 17.471479 21.082485
% chance of win or split 61.446036 17.757599 21.368604
expected return, % of pot 61.255290 17.566853 21.177858
fair pot odds:1 0.632512 4.692539 3.721913
pots won: 839659.33 240798.33 290296.33

There, you're a 61% favorite. Again, no reason to fold.

RioCosta 04-05-05 07:53 PM

Whoops
 
I'm sorry I didn't read the JJ, yes you are correct at 48%. However, considering you're only contributing 25% to the pot you should call.

RioCosta 04-05-05 08:16 PM

One more thing
 
Also, you have to weigh the risk vs. reward factor. If you win this pot, you control almost as many chips as the rest of the table has combined, a huge adavantage when it comes to buying pots. Also, you're in a much better position to finish in the money then you were before. Placing in large tournaments is a very difficult thing to do, how many world class players do you know actually finished in the money at last year? It'd be much harder to quadruple up and avoid bad beats etc..... In that scenario you have a good chance to be in a dominating position early on.

Locohombre 04-15-05 04:58 PM

The real question is......
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RioCosta
Also, you have to weigh the risk vs. reward factor. If you win this pot, you control almost as many chips as the rest of the table has combined, a huge adavantage when it comes to buying pots. Also, you're in a much better position to finish in the money then you were before. Placing in large tournaments is a very difficult thing to do, how many world class players do you know actually finished in the money at last year? It'd be much harder to quadruple up and avoid bad beats etc..... In that scenario you have a good chance to be in a dominating position early on.

Are you willing to gamble? You are likely looking at around a coin flip with that many callers. If you are not ready to gamble, you have no business playing poker, and you should go home and cry in a corner because you will never win by playing THAT conservative.

The quote above states the prize for winning the coin flip perfectly. You will likely place in the money in the tournament if you play your cards right with that big of a chip stack.

Unregistered 04-25-05 12:33 AM

All in with aces.
 
A few weeks ago I went all in before the flop with pocket aces and 2 other people called. I lost the pot to something stupid. It happens. It was the 1st hand.

Iceman37 04-25-05 08:00 AM

My thoughts...
 
I don't have time to read all six pages of replies in this thread, so if someone has already covered some of these things, my apologies. Nevertheless, these are my thoughts:

First (and I realize this is a hypothetical question) you're virtually guaranteed to never see three people at the same table all-in on the first hand of the WSOP. I doubt you'd see three people in the entire TOURNEY allin on the first hand. But one table? Nah...cause there ain't six aces in the deck.

Second, and I'm not completely sure about this because I haven't taken the time to work the math out in my head, but I think you're favored by more than a coin toss. Not taking into account the other two hands for a moment, a SMALL pair is the favorite about 54/46 vs. two overcards, so the largest pair available has to be a bigger favorite because they aren't overcards now, they're undercards. Add in the likely holdings of the other two callers and I think your only real danger is if a king flops to complete a set for one of them. Obviously this is going to happen once in eight hands, and you have to like those odds. The only other real danger I see is that one of the other allins also has the aces, which removes your chance of hitting the set. Likewise, four suited cards hitting the table could spell disaster if there are two AA hands in it together. I think you have to assume that one player is on AK and another on KK (which is a huge advantage to you) or possibly they're both on AK or KK, which is still a huge advantage. If some idiot has risked his entire tournament on QQ or some other nonsense...well you are getting awesome, awesome odds. In ANY case, you're clearly getting pot odds to call, even if it IS only a 50/50 proposition (and it's not).

Third, tripling up on the first day of the WSOP (even by the end of the day, let alone the first hand) isn't a "minor" consideration, either. That would be huge. I guarantee you'll have sponsors coming out of your ear by that point, for starters. And with the big stack comes a big stick. Big sticks take little pots. Little pots build bigger stacks. Bigger stacks make bigger sticks. You see where this is going, of course.

Last but not least, and I've said this many times before, WHO SAYS YOU CAN'T LAY IT DOWN? So it's more than a coin toss...so you're getting good odds...so the call could make you king for the day, and maybe set you up for a run at the final table...so WHAT?

The fact is, if you're any kind of player you can play out the day and make that money anyway--with a lot less gamble. If you're confident in your abilities, you can let ANY hand go, knowing you'll make it up somewhere else down the road. There is no hand in poker that can't be laid down, and only an idiot says otherwise. Your OBJECT is to get your money in there when you have the best of it, no doubt...and you're not going to have much more the best of it than a situation like this...but there's also a risk/reward ratio to be considered, not to mention that feeling in the pit of your gut if you call and get beat. Think about it this way...if you call and get beat, you have a long ride home and a long year to think about what could have been. But if you muck and see that you would have WON had you played, you have a long tournament ahead of you and a full stack of chips with which to make up for it. Is it any different than the guy who folded the J3os to see the flop come 3 3 J? You see it as the right call for the situation, and you go on to play your tourney. You still have a chance to win when you're sitting at the table.

You only have a bag of peanuts when you're sitting on the plane back home.

SO IN CONCLUSION, my thoughts are this...it IS a 50/50 proposition. Do you go, or don't you? Either call is the right call. And that call comes down to one thing--do you have the balls to play the best hand in poker at the biggest rodeo there is, for a shot at glory?

I know one thing...I'm not tellin'. Hell, I'm not even speculating. Put me in that situation--I'll decide then.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:00 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.