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  #92  
Old 04-13-05, 06:00 PM
common sense
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There's definately something up at Ultimate Bet. I've played hundredsof hours recently at both Ultimate Bet and Poker Stars, and I don't seethe goofy things that happen at Ultimate Bet happening at Poker Stars.I'm not saying it's rigged. It could be just another case of bad programming. In any case its been my experience that the turn and rivercards favor underdogs much more than they should. Personally, I thinkthis makes the play at Ultimate Bet more boring because if you want todo well, you are much less likely to go all in when you are convincedthat you're a big favorite. I've also noticed that all of the luckseems to go to one person at a table. Some people seem to be on to this. This has happened to me. I was once in one of their freerolltournaments (2500 players start with 1500 chips each) and within thefirst half hour I was down to 30 chips. So I started playing silly.Two and a half hours into the tournament I was in first place. Believeme, it took no skill whatsoever to accomplish this. Whenever I had adraw to make the best hand, I called and made it. Totally unrealistic.I still think it's a decent site because they have very good freerolltournaments. It's pretty easy to finish "in the money" in them. Youjust have to fold and fold and fold. And if you hit the top two pairon the flop against the player who seems to be having all the luck,DON'T BET HEAVY! That player will make their flush or straight drawmore than the numbers say they should. The good news is that it's notunusual for a tournament that starts with 2500 players to have only about half of them left after only one hour. Also, players who haveaccumulated a lot of chips tend to play loosely. If you get AA or KKand go all in they'll call and you can often double up. By the way,the mistake I see the most is when a player hits high pair on the flop, doesn't chase others out, doesn't improve, and then calls a big bet after the river. I see this again and again. Another one I see is whensomebody goes all in before the flop and somebody calls or evengoes all in with more chips. Then somebody with a pair of nines goesall in. If the first player has Kh Qd, the second Kc Ks, a 9d 9s hasonly an 18.91 percent chance of winning and a .32 of 1 percent chanceof a tie. It's very often worse if the first two players have other cards. If anyone else has any stories about mistakes they see playersoften make, I'd enjoy hearing them.