|
I've stopped by here before to read the comments since they make me laugh and I don't feel so alone when FTP flips the switch on me. But this latest series of bad beats is so insane, I've had it. It feels like the only way to win is to get your money in when you KNOW you're behind. I'm typically ITM in about 1/3 of the SNGs I play. Now it's been 25 in a row of nothing. The last time I went on this type of BS streak was when my bankroll had reached the same level as before this one started. It's like you get to a certain level and they've got to clean you out so you have to start over. Keeps you coming back for more punishment. I haven't won with KK in so long, I get a sick feeling whenever they're dealt. AA is like a coin-flip AT BEST. The last two stack-busters finally drove me over the edge:
Me: QhQs mid-position, everyone folds to me, I raise 4xBB. Only button calls, a donkey calling station. Flop: 10h 3d 6s. I bet the pot. Donkey calls (no surprise). Turn: Jd. OK, no more BS, I pull the trigger all-in. Donkey calls, turns over AsKh. River: Kd.
Me: KhKd mid-position, one limper, I raise 4xBB. Blinds are fairly high but still 3 CALLERS - the limper, SB, and BB!!! Flop: 5h 10d Qs. Everyone checks to me. I'm on semi-tilt I admit, so I move all-in just right off to take it down. If someone hit the flop hard then so be it. Everyone folds, except SB who calls with AcJc!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You know how this ends. Turn: Ks to hit the gutshot.
I start telling everyone at the table how I'm tired of the reverse odds. At this point I have like 1/2BB left. Just to prove my point, I wait until the crappiest hand gets dealt. 2-4 offsuit. I tell everyone ahead of time that my crap will win guaranteed. 4 callers. I hit the straight and quadruple up, but 4 times zero is still zero.
The ONLY big pot I've managed to win in all of this time is when _I_ screwed up and called an all-in with 10-10 against K-K. Of course I hit the set.
I've noticed the same as a lot of people - that there are WAY too many huge pairs vs. huge pairs around the bubble. The bigger stacks always win regardless of their hand. You can argue that they can sustain damage so of course they're the ones that take people out on a suckout. But no, there is no "damage" taken - they destroy everyone the first time. I'd say 80% of the time in these bubble positions my money is in pre-flop with >70% odds to win. I'd say I win maybe 25% of those, and there's just no way to sustain any profitability if that's the result. The most frustrating are the matched high cards when you have a better kicker. E.g. I have A-Q versus A-3. If it's bubble time and the money has gone in against a big stack, you can bet that 3 is coming out almost every f***ing time.
And God help you if you try and use VP$IP to guide your decisions. If you're at a table of donkeys who are playing 25-40% of their hands pre-flop, everyone limping, etc. you can bet when you pick up a monster that it will be THAT EXACT moment that some donk has an even bigger one. Or say there's a guy that calls everything, bets EVERY flop, etc. etc. standard LAG. Everyone else is getting bullied around, but I finally pick up a hand and hit the flop hard with a set or top two pair, etc. EVERY SINGLE TIME IT HAS TO BE THE HAND WHERE THE LAG DONKEY HITS A BOAT OR FLUSH OR SOME OTHER S***.
I self-excluded myself from FTP for 2 days to try and settle myself down - who knows if I'll ever come back. I mean, suckouts are part of the game - donkeys have to eat too. All I'm asking for is my fair slice of the odds. But on that site, it's too often where it feels like they've flipped the switch and you're climbing up hill all the way. I've never had an equivalent swing in my favour to make me believe this is just variance.
|