|
Yes - you can look at your hand history (I use Poker Tracker) and you will see over the thousands of hands that you have played that the odds hold up (for example. if I look at pocket AA for all my hands they won 76%). HOWEVER. In my case I disected my hand histories into two different categories :
"Crippling Hand" - a hand that cost you all or at least 70% of your stack.
"Late Tourney hands" (less then 20 percent of the field is left)
In the above two scenarios - all of a sudden the odds change -AA only holds up half the time, I lose most of the hands where I am the favorite at the time when all the chips go in and generally lose when I am the dog. Why would the odds change???? If AA wins 75% overall - it should be the same for at the beginning of the tourney and the end of the tourney and the same regardless of the amount of your stack at risk. BUT IT DON'T. To me, this is the insidious part of the rigging. To top it off -and this is where it is totally different then live - at the critical moments of the tournament is where you get the "are you foking kidding" (you must of known what cards were coming)" calls. (e.g., AK called by k-7 offsuit, etc.) When I play live - by the time you get down to 20 percent of the field - most the nonsense callers are long gone - not at Full Tilt - there are actually more of them.
Late in the tourney is also the time of the tournament when you can call the cards that are going to come. If I have pocket JJ and the flop is A of clubs, King of clubs and jack of diamonds giving me a set and I bet big and get the normal two callers - I know the exact card that is coming on the turn (say it with me now - the Queen of Clubs - that would be the one card given donkey 1 the nut gut shot straight and donkey 2 the flush with the 2 and 3 of clubs he had in the hole.
On-line poker is the only form of gambling I have expereinced where you actually get worse the more you play. Makes real sense.
I play live 4 to 5 times a week and yes there are bad beats and yes there are donkeys and yes there are suck outs - but I never leave the casino with that sick "I just got foked" feeling in my gut you get from Full Tilt because I know that over time at a live game things square up and eventually donks lose. I have simply lost the ability to stomach the on-line rigging anymore. And it ain't the money - I got more then enough - it is just the obvious rigging that is going on that makes you cringe. You know the truth - no matter how you played - NO MATTER - you were going to lose. It was just FT determining when the anvil was going to fall.
Anway - long story long - when you look at your stats - ignore everything other then showdowns where at least 70 percent of your stack is at risk - look at the amount of favs you loose and look at the hands you are being called by for all the c hips - you will want to vomit.
|