[what odds]

I had deleted all my posts from this thread but thought I'd post again after sitting back and watching the debate.

This is something anyone can try, sign up to a training site, any one, I'm not here to advertise, watch a small stakes game and pick out a few players and then go to PTR and check out their stats.

A pattern will emerge over time in that TAG players who mostly rely on showdown equity for the bulk of their win rate will not be winners at FTP. Yet these same players do quite well at other sites such as PS.

The players that beat FTP are semi-TAG or LAG, they push non showdown winnings (the red line on your graphs).

There is no right or wrong way to play poker, showdown reliant TAG's who play solid and aggressive can have nice win rates but the fact these guys don't win at FTP help support what I have always argued and the stats in my HEM have always indicated.

Showdown winnings on FTP are manipulated. Across all sites my win rate when the PFR flopping two pair+ is +1,300bb/100 average (across 9 sites).

On FTP, the exact same filter of raising pre flop and flopping two pair or better is just +650bb/100. So my win rate in these spots has been literally halved.

If you take the time to look at the hand histories you will see that you almost always seem to run into a flush draw, someone turns a gut shot vs your set etc.

On FTP as the PFR who flops well, you will get coolered and outdrawn on the turn or river way more than what would happen at any other site. This is designed by the site, aggressive player flops well and bets like he should, loose player calls and flops a draw or turns a flush draw etc etc. It isn't that the draws hit more than they should, it is the fact that the draw itself was flopped when the PFR flopped well. Too coincidental and every database I've checked shows the same manipulation every time.

There is just too much evidence now against FTP being random. It is OK if one player can beat all other sites except FTP, but when you get a lot of players who can do well and hold their own anywhere else and yet they suffer at FTP, given they play the same solid TAG style, then you can only give the benefit of the doubt so many times.

Also, quite recently, I have a 30,000 hand sample of FTP where I played the following strategy-

- FOLD EVERYTHING except suited cards, so even fold AA/KK.

- Limp these suited cards, never raise them. Continue in a hand, never raising, just play super loose passive, cashe draws and try and catch two pair hands etc.

I actually came out with a 1.5bb/100 win rate over 30,000 hands of NL25!

The most horrific stat of all that arose is that my flush got paid off 84% of the time! This directly links to the theory of the PFR flopping well and running into draws too often. 84% of the time I chased a flush draw and hit, I GOT PAID OFF at showdown. This doesn't happen in real life, players raise AK, maybe c-bet a flop of 785 and then give up. They don't pay off flushes! They only pay off flushes if they have a hand so in HEM you'll see lots of sick hands such as player opens AK, fish calls 7h 5h.

Flop is Ac 6h 2h. Turn blanks, river comes Ah or Kh to give the PFR trips or two pair and give the fish a rivered flush. Fish donks half pot river, TAG calls with a solid hand. It happens throughout every database I have studied, time and time again.