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Old 04-05-05, 03:59 PM
jtex_! jtex_! is offline
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1
Tell me what you think about this

There is no absolute answer in this situation. The best you can do is to put the other players on hands and make the best decision. Call when it’s best, fold when it’s not. In short, just play good poker.

My initial answer was to fold because I’ve played in too many online tournaments where players go all-in on the first hand just looking to double up. In this situation I will play only AA, and I HAVE YET TO WIN A POT. Q8 or J10 or something usually takes it. And, I thought, the aces are a coin flip against three other random hands. But then it occurred to me that the three other hands should NOT be random, especially to a good poker player. Think about what your opponents have. What would they go all in with at the WSOP? Q8? AK? AA?

Here’s a possibility: you’re in the big blind with aces. For some asinine reason a player in late position goes all-in to steal the blinds. We’ll say he has 65s. I know, it’s ridiculous on the first day, when the blinds are pennies, but answer me this… would it be the most ridiculous move you’ve ever seen at a poker table? Not me. Maybe he won his buy in at a free satellite and has no confidence in his ability against the competition. These thoughts are going through the head of the player on his left as he looks down at his pocket jacks. He gets a read and calls. The button player has pocket kings and is a gambler. He likes to mix it up. He calls. Next comes you with your aces. In this situation I would fold. You are a little over 2-1 favorite over the second favorite hand (65s amazingly), but only about 48% to win it all. YOU ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE ELIMINATED. If the gambler on the button has aces instead of kings you are about 52% to tie, 46% to lose and only 2% to win with a four-flush. So you’d be 54% not to lose. Remember that a tie still doubles you up and knocks out the first two players. Most games I’d gamble in this situation but not the first hand at the WSOP. You could make an argument to call or fold here. Your tournament life would depend on a coin flip. In fact, I think that’s the most likely scenario, a group of four hands like this.. JJ KK AA AA. Since it’s probably going to be a chop, you’re only getting about 2-1 on your money, not good pot odds, so I’d fold.
Here’s when I’d call…
This is a plausible possibility: suppose in the original example the first player didn’t have 65s, say he had AK. So it’d be AK, JJ, KK, AA. You go from 48% to win to 64% to win. I would call for sure with this much of an advantage.

So I guess what I’m trying to say is that I’d try to put my opponents on hands (yeah I know, not easy on day 1 hand 1) and call only when I know I have a sizeable advantage to double or quadruple up, not just throw my chips in blindly because my 2 cards say AA.