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  #68  
Old 08-02-05, 06:00 PM
Man who hates rigged poker
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odds you flop full house to your opponents 4 of a kind: (assuming you both ALREADY have a pocket pair, which is, being generous about a 1 in 10 odds you are up against an opponent where you both have pocket pair)His/her odds: Pocket Pair to hit quads on the flop, 3 cards to come, 2 outs then 1 out, 2 / 50 * 1 / 49, .08% 1 in 1250Your odds: Pocket Pair to hit full house (paired board and you hit trips) 3 cards to come, one has to be your card 2 / 50 * 1(any card) * 3/48(that other card to pair on the board), .24% 1 in 416I did some rounding but those numbers are fairly accurate, at least within .1% which is enough to prove my point...now odds you hit BOTH of those at the same time (you vs them) is 0.08 * 0.24 = 0.0192 = 1 in 5100 hands or so.that means that 1 out of every 5100 times you and your opponent heads up have pocket pairs preflop, one of you hits quads and one of you hits a full house... 1 in 5100 * 1 in 10 (for hitting pairs preflop against your opponent), 1 in 51000... I've played about 28000 hands on pokerstars in 8 months (2 hours a night, one table sometimes two, 60 hands an hour, assuming I play EVERY day for 8 months, I didn't).so I havent even seen enough hands to warrant seeing that combination going by the probabilities... but low and behold, I see it at least once a night on my table, sometimes two...I could go and talk about all the other ridiculous flops to raise rakes, but I wont... that site is rigging the flops... but to be fair, it rigs it randomly towards any players, so if you always play the same, and never go all in, you can be a break even player with some luck.it is however possible to see the bad beats coming, and just always fold all big hands and make small bluffs (thats how I see people making money online) and that is actually a valid real life strategy too on very tight tables. but from what I've seen, they are definitely rigging action flops. good luck all on that site.