Hello All,
Not sure how to start this. First , let me say I've been playing online poker (omaha) for about 6 years, paradise poker, pokerstars, ultimate bet and full tilt. Made money on paradise and ultimate bet, but its just beyond impossible on full tilt. Played close to 130000 hands of omaha in Nov, Dec and Jan, and the same patterns emerge. In 130k of hands, I never had one super run of cards where I was invincible for a couple of hours. Not once in 400 odd hours of playing omaha .... GET REAL !!!!
There are 4 or 5 'situations' that seem to arise over and over again.....
1) having the nuts on the turn, and being outdrawn by an opponent having 10 outs on the river. They are calling a pot bet, with a 1 in 5 chance of making their hand, and zero chance of being paid off if they hit. It's idiotic play, yet they seem to buy that miraculous card close to 50% of the time....
2) heads up, you have the flopped set, and your opponent a flush draw (not even nuts
. You bet, they reraise you , and wish to get all their money in, heads up, on a draw that is 1 in 3. Bingo , that flush wins way to often, yet its a hand you cant put down...., and are expecting to win 66% of the time
3) You hit a monster hand, set and flush draw or 17 card st draw on a rainbow flop, or top 2 with the nut fluh draw. It always misses, when it should be hitting 80% of the time....Yet a donk opponent with 6 outs or less hits all day......
4) Opponent/rock preflop raises with aces, you call and flop 2 pair, or even better, a set. You check raise , and the original player manages to pair up one of the cards you don't have, or find a 2 out ace.
I'm no mug. I majored in mathematics and computer science at a top university. Had some very good , no, unbelievably good poker playing online friends. (PieJay on ultimate bet 50/100 holdem, and rocksmasher who used to murder paradise poker 2-4 omaha game for 4 years (lives in Hull, grew up with Devilfish. The guy is seriously good
We've discussed many hands and many situations.
People give the same responses, 'variance', number of online hands, quality of opponents, etc etc. The scenarios described above deal with basic mathematics and probability. In the long run no amount of 'luck' should be able to outweigh them. Yet I consistently see the biggest donkey's on the site sitting reasonably stacked and winning, while good players are battling and losing.
Something is not right with Fulltilt. Either their RNG is flawed, or they are dealing action hands, or have shills, or setups, but its simply unplayable, except if you like losing.....