At the end of the day the math in poker is all mathematical probabilities and not certainties.
My Final hand in a 323 person $120 buy in tournament.
Full table.
I'm very short stacked in early-middle position with the table big stack in BB.
I have a little over 10K in chips and blinds are 800/1600/300. UGH!
I pick up AQ O/S and raise to 5500 looking for a customer to shove on and everyone fold to BB.
great.. He looks down and sees 77 and calls.
now the flop misses me but it's J-10-9!! I have a double-gut shot, needing a K or and 8 to pull it out. I wasn't absolutely sure of what he had at the moment but he shoved. I cant fold this at this point so I say " I have to call this, sir." and shove the rest of my chips in.
I show my AQ and he flips his 77. I couldn't believe I was in such a good shape. 14 outs to win the hand. 3 Aces, 3 Queens, 4 Kings or 4 eights!
52% post flop...
the dealer of course is holding 27 cards. 14 theoretically are mine to win the hand.
the Turn brings a 10! the board has J-10-10-9
nice!
now any A, K, Q, J, 9 or 8 wins the hand! 20 outs!
the dealer is now holding 25 cards and 20 of them help me win... theoretically...
40%
the River brings a 3. it's over...
I got it all in with the best possible drawing hand and missed. it's ok. over the long run I win a lot of those but this one... with SO many outs... it was a bit of a surprising miss with so many outs.
poker is all mathematical probabilities and not certainties.