#11
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
That assumes, of course, that one can properly play a big stack, early in the WSOP Quote:
In short, even a +EV player is so -playing EV lifetime (in regards to getting to the last few tables), that their edge won't be able to overcome the random playing odds enough to justify throwing away Aces against several all-in players preflop. As for 9 all-in players: I don't have access to a NL simulator that includes betting, so I used Turbo Texas Hold'em for some limit betting simulations. AA vs 9 random hands (no bet, no fold) was 33%. Against a betting lineup, however, pocket Aces won two-thirds of the time. AcAd vs. the worse hand distribution I could think of quickly (worst for the Aces, without giving someone else Aces) was the following: JJ Tc9c 4d4h AsKs Ah3s 3c3d 8h7d 9s8s KdQd Running that hand distribution, Aces only won 11.5% of the time nofold'em.... but won 60% of the time against the betting lineup. Of course, I don't think any of us could imagine players so bad that would call all-in on the first hand with 87o, A3o and threes... but to do a lineup of JJ KK QQ TT 99 KK QQ JT AK is both less likely to occur and probably better for the Aces anyway. I can't think of any hand mix that would get 9 people to call all-in preflop ahead of your Aces, so this is a pointless argument anyway. If it would somehow happen, then based on the 11-15% range of chance of winning, I could advocate folding Aces if you were a top pro. However, since at most you'd face 3-4 players all-in, I'll try to run that type of simulation some time and see what numbers I get. Okay, I ran a no fold simulation with Aces vs four hands (KK, QQ, JJ, TT). The Aces won almost 39% of the time, or odds of 1.56:1. For that, you'd get pot odds of 4:1 Last edited by Lottery Larry; 05-10-08 at 01:57 PM. Reason: added last simulation |
|
|