poker is all mathematical probabilities and not certainties.

[homedeco07]

At the end of the day the math in poker is all mathematical probabilities and not mathematical certainties.

My Final hand in a 323 person $120 buy in tournament.

Full table.

I'm very short stacked in early-middle position with the table big stack in BB.

I have a little over 10K in chips and blinds are 800/1600/300. UGH!

I pick up AQ O/S and raise to 5500 looking for a customer to shove on. everyone folds to BB. great.. He looks down and sees 77 and calls.

now the flop misses me but it's J-10-9!! I have a open ended-gut shot draw, needing a K or and 8 to pull it out. I wasn't absolutely sure of what he had at the moment but he shoved. I cant fold this at this point so I say " I have to call this, sir." and shove the rest of my chips in.

I show my AQ and he flips his 77. I couldn't believe I was in such a good shape. 14 outs to win the hand. 3 Aces, 3 Queens, 4 Kings or 4 eights!
52% post flop...

the dealer of course is holding 27 cards. 14 theoretically are mine to win the hand.

the Turn brings a 10! the board has J-10-10-9 nice!

now any A, K, Q, J, 9 or 8 wins the hand! 20 outs!
the dealer is now holding 25 cards and 20 of them help me win... theoretically...
40%

the River brings a 3. it's over... I got it all in with the best possible drawing hand and missed. it's ok. over the long run I win a lot of those but this one... with SO many outs... it was a bit of a surprising miss with so many outs.

poker is all mathematical probabilities and not mathematical certainties.

[homedeco07]

any CONSTRUCTIVE thoughts are welcome. My last posting " I think I played this right" turned into a nice hot thread. I'll try to keep posting interesting hands for you all to read and comment on.

please feel free to correct my math if need be. also, does anyone know the chances of 2 players being dealt the same pocket pair

AND what are the chances of a player having that happen 2 tournaments in a row? that happened to me the tournament before(AA vs AA)this one and in this tournament(QQ vs QQ)

[HPG ADMIN]

Basically, you were "very short stacked" and chose to take a coin flip. Generally speaking, that is not a bad move to make at all.

One note though. In your example, you chose a hand where you had position on the flop (you acted last). To me, this is one situation where you would maybe want to act first. The reason is that, if you make the first move all-in, then you also have folding equity.

Greg Raymer has a specific name for this move - "the stop n go" (if I remember correctly).

[Offsuit27]

Sometimes, you can't predict the coming of cards on the table. All in is a good option for that situation. Anyway, poker is just a matter of strategy and pure luck.

[homedeco07]

I've been running a test with that hand to see how many times that particular scenario wins. so. far its been interesting. about 40% of the time AQ wins, so far... I'm gonna keep it up for a bit to see what happens. and yes I know its not a true reflection of actual game circumstances since I removed the cards needed from the deck and shuffled and dealt out the rest. the results so far are 5 wins for AQ and 8 wins with 77

[homedeco07]

Originally Posted by Offsuit27

Well, i will make a test by myself and know how certain the probabilities are.

ok, I've been doing it with the river card.

AQ vs 77 with board of J-10-10-9 with river to come.
full table so 8 sets need to be dealt out outside of the AQ and 77. suits of cards are not important as it was all rainbow at the end.

[Offsuit27]

Originally Posted by homedeco07

ok, I've been doing it with the river card.

AQ vs 77 with board of J-10-10-9 with river to come.
full table so 8 sets need to be dealt out outside of the AQ and 77. suits of cards are not important as it was all rainbow at the end.

So is the river c ard 8? Hmmm, i t hink that is really great

[DaNutFullHouse]

What in the name of God are you doing preflop? You open to 3.5xBB and leave yourself roughly 3xBB behind? Send it in preflop instead of running a comical version of the stop and go.

The dealer isn't "holding" 27 cards, this has nothing to do with anything. The only relevant cards are the ones visible to you, because everything else is unknown. When the money goes in on the flop, you have 14 outs out of 45 unseen cards, with TWO streets to come - that's where the flop % to win comes from (actually 53 in this case). Turn, you miss, but pickup counterfeit outs, now you've 20 outs of 44 unseen cards (45% to win). You were essentially a coinflip at every stage.

As far as your little trial, you would need to do it hundreds of times to produce a relevant statistical result, 13 or whatever number of trials you used is too small a sample size.

[homedeco07]

As we are all here to learn, DaNutFullHouse, at least I hope we are, try to keep comments a little more constructive.

[homedeco07]

Originally Posted by Offsuit27

So is the river c ard 8? Hmmm, i t hink that is really great

an 8 on the river would have been outstanding! but I was referring to having had a full table on this hand so 8 sets of hands need to be dealt out aside from the AQ and 77

[DaNutFullHouse]

My comments are about as constructive as they get.

As far as the 8 sets of cards, you don't need to deal anything out, the cards are unknown to you, it's the same exact thing if they're still in the deck. If you're running the flop scenario, all you need is the 7 cards known to you to be visible, the rest of the deck is an unknown entity, it doesn't matter where the cards are.

[Offsuit27]

Originally Posted by homedeco07

an 8 on the river would have been outstanding! but I was referring to having had a full table on this hand so 8 sets of hands need to be dealt out aside from the AQ and 77

Ok. Cards cant be detected. your 2 cards and 5 cards on the table would be the only cards you can notice. Poker can't deal 8 sets of card

[homedeco07]

Using Pokerstove program I ran 25 million hands...

25,156,173 games 156.703 secs 160,534 games/sec

Board: Jd Th 9s Tc
Dead: 5s 6d 8h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 04.145% 04.14% 00.00% 1042225 559.50 { 7c7d }
Hand 1: 11.291% 09.05% 02.24% 2277682 562648.58 { AcQd }
Hand 2: 10.576% 08.92% 01.65% 2244613 415971.33 { random }
Hand 3: 10.572% 08.92% 01.65% 2243897 415687.75 { random }
Hand 4: 10.572% 08.92% 01.65% 2243174 416243.08 { random }
Hand 5: 10.573% 08.92% 01.65% 2243957 415776.33 { random }
Hand 6: 10.570% 08.92% 01.65% 2243678 415360.08 { random }
Hand 7: 10.573% 08.92% 01.65% 2243323 416316.92 { random }
Hand 8: 10.567% 08.92% 01.65% 2242995 415333.42 { random }
Hand 9: 10.561% 08.91% 01.65% 2240686 416047.00 { random }

[DaNutFullHouse]

Those are the preflop odds assuming all hands went to showdown. Not really relevant, since 8 of the 10 hands went in the muck preflop, and the rest of the money went in on the flop. All you need is to run the odds on your hand versus his, ignoring the burn cards because these are unknown entities, with the board you mentioned. You were 53% to win on the flop, a slight favorite. Regardless, you should have sent it all in preflop.

[pokerrocker]

Probability in poker affects everything. That's why you are assuming that you made a good assessment. However, the longer your results are out of sync with all your prediction, the more it likely becomes you've been miscalculated.